After careful study of Gann, Elliot and Delta factors; there is no sign of an impending stock market crash. The 1987 crash was in line with the pullback a couple of months ago. The cycles forecast the 29 crash and factored in the World Wars. The cycles cannot lie. There is not going to be a y2k crash therefor I beleive, even though I am prepared more than most, it's just going to be a BITR. I don't say this to be a troll; I am the one in my circle who has been banging the drum and I am the one my friends will point at and laugh. However, my prayer for months has been just one thing for myself; wisdom.

-- JohnTheBaptist (Trading@Advice.com), November 28, 1999

Answers

I think we're headed toward what's called a "waterfall decline" in the major indexes. See:

http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm

and scroll down to the "Replaying '29?" chart at

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Cash is good. Have some (grin).

-- joe (joe@adeveloper.net), November 28, 1999.

Gann thought what 1950's being the big one (crash that is). I always thought that most technical analysis was for identifying market turns and probable moves. Like all predictors there are no absolutes, including this one. If this is the top of the 5th wave (Elliot) then even Elliot wouldn't try to hold on to this ride because the predictability is mostly in the 3rd wave (second up cycle). The fifth is considered the most unpredicatble. Or then again soybeans could be go up or down.

Cycles may not lie per say but the interpretation is subjective in nature. Happy trading, keep your powder dry.

-- squid (Itsdark@down.here), November 28, 1999.

Frankly, even tough I have done some market analysis with a relatively good record, I'm no financial expert. Here's my opinion. I now think there will not be a big crash until earliest January and even then, it depends on how widespread is the power and phone outages. ( I think there will be a correction 5-10% by year end. I am now 90% out of the market). Elliot and others couldn't predict whether there will be sustained blackouts or global domino effects.

The earnings report in that first quarter of 2000 will not be good partly because a lot of companies are buying extra supplies now. So many companies won't have to buy a lot in early 2000. There is bound to be some supply chain disruptions. I expect at least 5% of businesses will fail here and abroad. Also, when several foreign markets like Russia or Hong Kong have big market crashes, it may have some effect back home here. There are too many unknowns and negatives to sustain the present overvalued market. Greenspan has already repeatedly warned about this irrational markets. So personally I see our stock market will probably drop by 30-40% by June , 2000. Monitor the oil stocks. It will be interesting where they might go.

I made a forecast earlier this year that gold will make it's comeback by this Fall. I now think next year gold will move a lot higher. Just a hunch. I could be wrong. Please consult with your financial advisor before taking any action.

-- Watchman (watchman@watchforyou.com), November 28, 1999.

While the past cycles may not lie, how do you determine there will be no crash based on that alone? We have never had an event like this before to model! Give the variablility of the events that may play out that could effect the market, I don't believe anyone can say there will not be a crash.

If the foreign markets tank due to Y2K and many international firms get hit hard, and we start seeing significant supply chain problems, etc., etc., etc. - well... I wouldn't stick my neck out and say there won't be a crash. I'd say the possibility is better for a crash than not.

I pray for wisdom and insight daily. Especially when it comes to protecting my family. I just don't see how "they" can continue to float this boat much longer in consideration of what my come.

-- Keeping my

-- Head Up (lookover@your.shoulder), November 28, 1999.

John,

I don't analyze the markets with Gann, Elliott or Delta (is this Welles Wilder's approach?) but my work also tells me there is not likely to be a crash in the near future. However, this doesn't necessarily mean that Y2K will be a BITR. Not all bear markets involve crashes.

I am wondering if we are heading towards a 1973-74 type bear market. Back then, there was no crash- only a long, painful deterioration. The S & P topped in January 1973, then dropped by 50% over the next 22 months. Retirement hopes were shredded in the 70's, even without a crash event.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), November 28, 1999.

I have pondered the imponderables why looking at the tea leaves.

I have decided based on years of market analysis and world economics that I definitely need more tea... Waiter!

-- squid (Itsdark@down.here), November 29, 1999.

Rising oil prices are usually associated with economic problems and stock market declines (1973-74, 1979, 1990). However, it sometimes takes several months for the higher oil prices to begin to have a significant effect. Oil and gas prices are the best indicator we have of the seriousness of y2k.

-- Danny (dcox@ix.netcom.com), November 29, 1999.

None of this is going to amount to a thing if Y2K takes out the market and everything around it.

-- Liz Pavek (lizpavek@hotmail.com), November 29, 1999.