Risk of Y2K fallout is a great unknown in many countries

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Associated Press

KINGSTON, Jamaica -- Typical of many countries that got a late start in preparing for the millennium computer bug, this sun-dappled Caribbean island presents neither a nightmare scenario nor an easy ride.

Jamaica is among more than 60 countries analysts rank in the middle ground for Y2K risks -- where government officials tend to paint a rosy picture of readiness that could mask a potential for serious disruptions.

Whether computer glitches will produce catastrophes, fatalities or merely inconvenience a few hundred tourists can't be predicted. But clearly, all is not ready in Jamaica.

Jamaica's Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management is responsible for handling any emergency arising from the Year 2000 bug. Yet six weeks from the deadline its contingency plans are still in the works and its own disaster management systems are not yet Y2K compliant.

"We're still collecting information," director Barbara Carby says of contingencies for coping with possible disruptions such as power and water outages, bank runs or riots.

The police emergency radio communications network has not been adjusted to handle the date changeover, admits Carby. Nor has the computer program that tracks resources, shelters and emergency personnel, forcing a fallback to a slower manual system.

In most countries in the middle ground -- from Poland to India, Tunisia to Malaysia -- there has not been enough money and time to address all potential problems.

"Like most places, we had to triage and make sure that mission-critical systems got top billing," explains Luke Jackson, Year 2000 project director for Jamaica. He won't say how much the government has spent on Y2K work.

A false sense of security could compound problems.

Out at Santo Domingo's port of Haina, where longshoreman unload Florida timber and Canadian soy from freighters, port authority systems manager Alfonso Peroso sits beside a shiny new hi-end computer, still-boxed Microsoft software behind him, and boasts that all his programs are Y2K compliant.

But when asked about the cranes and payloaders on the docks, Peroso suddenly looks worried. "Well, we don't really oversee that," he says.

The Y2K program manager at one private contractor on the docks, Maritima Dominicana, says all the company's critical systems are compliant. But when asked about dock machinery, Pilar Duverge wonders aloud about the payloaders that shuttle shipping containers around.

"I think I better doublecheck," she says.

In Kingston, Jamaica, port officials exude confidence about their nearly two years of Y2K preparations. There's much at stake for a country that imports most of its food, and Kingston's wharves are also a major transshipment point for cargo bound for all corners of the earth.

At the port's Customs Department office, however, the Y2K work is far from done.

Programmers are just beginning to install new software for tracking duty payments. A revenue accounting system is to be installed this week. And with the clock ticking mercilessly toward an immovable deadline, several mission-critical systems are still in testing.

Systems could well fail, says Y2K coordinator Kareen Waugh, but delays in processing goods wouldn't last more than a few days.

"We don't know what will happen. Nobody knows what will happen. But we should be ready with the critical part," she says.

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), November 28, 1999


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