IT MAY be the biggest problem that the modern world has ever faced...At midnight on January 1st 2000 (a Saturday morning), most of the worlds mainframe computers will either shut down or begin spewing out bad data...This will create a nightmare for every area of life, in every region of the industrialised world. Thus Gary North, a professional doom-monger who has had a field day with the much-lamented tendency of early software programmers to record the year with two digits rather than four. In fact, it seems increasingly probable that the turn of the year will pass in most industrialised countries with few severe problems. Industrialising countries may suffer more. The main disruption, however, is likely to come not from computer-induced disaster but from the precautions and contingency plans of nervous companies and investors.

Indeed, many millennium-bug watchers, including Alan Greenspan, chairman of Americas Federal Reserve, now worry most about the bugs effects on stockpiling and on financial markets. Edward Yardeni, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, has long predicted that the year 2000 (Y2K) problem would disrupt the American economy enough to trigger a world recession. This week, a report by a Senate panel similarly gave a warning that Y2K could end Americas eight-year-old economic expansion. Yet Mr Yardeni has recently been wondering what might result if people stockpile money in anticipation of new year chaosand nothing happens. Might their relief cause a post-millennial spending spree?

Most information-technology executives in large companies have always claimed that the fuss about the millennium bug was exaggerated, and that they expected little serious disruption. It will be like Monica Lewinsky, said Eric Schmidt, chief executive of Novell, recently: Everyone will be very excited about it, but in the end it wont matter very much. Such views may reflect merely a desire to reassure customers and investors. But several more disinterested observers also support them.

For instance, in its next progress report, the federal Office of Management and Budget in America will show that the government has completed the overhaul of 96% of its mission-critical computer systems. Since the federal government has the highest concentration of elderly and bug-ridden computer systems on the planet, that alone is a reason for optimism. In addition, says John Koskinen, who has been monitoring Y2K issues for the White House for the past year, more than four-fifths of American states are in very good shape in terms of the systems needed to run such programmes as food stamps and Medicaid.

In Britain, too, the official tone has become cheerier....

More...

-- Mild Mannered Reporter (clark@super.duper), November 29, 1999

Answers

"Scary Gary" sure is funny! to see him de-bunked go to any of the following websites:

who is gary north?
"Gary North is a Big Fat Idiot" Homepage (That's not my idea....its what the page is called!)
Steve Davis-"on Doom and Gloom"

-- laughing (hard@the.garynorth.website), November 29, 1999.

whoopsie, forgot the y2k debunking board (many good links and good discussions as well....but bring your asbestos undies with you!)

-- laughing (hard@the.garynorth.website), November 29, 1999.

can't forget and leave out Stephen Poole's website. That guy has been through lots, including a smear campaign to have his site censured on "WWJD".

-- Normal Guy (its@just.BAU), November 29, 1999.

Be sure to read this paper as well proof that some "doomers" want to see the deaths of others

-- nope (no@than.x), November 30, 1999.