The latest Don McAlvany broadcast on Real Audio is worth listening to concerning Y2K issues and oil:

Broadcast@RealAudio.listen), December 03, 1999

Answers

Ahh, sorry about that, link failed to work, trying again:

Link

-- Listening In (Broadcast@RealAudio.listen), December 03, 1999.

Well done. NOT GOOD NEWS>>>>

Can you get the links for the talk show. i tried y2ktalk.com but it was not working...

EVERYONE SHOULD LISTEN TO THIS.....

BLUE

-- BLUE (bluefish@thepond.com), December 03, 1999.

Perhaps someone could post a brief summary for the benefit of those who are using freenets and library computers withour audio capability.

-- Dan Cook (dannco@hotmail.com), December 03, 1999.

I second that motion: please someone post a brief summary of what was said!!!

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), December 03, 1999.

Interview with John Anderson of Y2K News Radio. He has recently - in the last 3 weeks - upped his estimate of Y2K from a 5 to a 7.5 (on a scale of 10).

He recently talked to Martin Weiss (Weiss Ratings) re oil companies, refineries etc. Asked him to do check on Inron (sp?) Interon?, the largest natural gas co. on the planet, also provider of electricity, international co. SEC filings - not going to make it in time because of mainframes and suppliers. Weiss ratings based on SEC filings and money spent vs. Y2K budget. Chevron, Exxon, Texico and many other refineries have gotten BELOW AVERAGE ratings from Weiss.

Take a look at Williams, Colonial (pipeline companies)... they are in a dilema. Don't know whether to shut off pipelines and risk contamination, or allow it to continue to run and risk a TOTAL SHUTDOWN.

Oil and gas co. ARE stockpiling. Gas/oil prices going up. Problem - Williams says having problems keeping tanks "wet" because it is going out as fast as it comes in. Estimates/projections in the range of 30% reduction in imports and refining capabilities after 1/1/00. Third week of Jan. may feel very serious crunch.

1974 was a 7% reduction.

Anderson: "Gentlemen, if we're looking at a 30% reduction, you can imaging the consequences that will ensue."

MeElvaney: "That's not a recession, that's a Depression."

Anderson: "Yes, it is."

People are saying of Yardeni's 70% chance of recession that he is now using the "D" word instead of the "R" word.

What about the Middle East, the Arab oil producers? And shipping?

Maritime put out a statement several months ago - if you're not Y2K compliant, find yourselves a port come 12/31/99 or you could find yourselves afloat in the middle of the ocean. The average liner has 300+ embedded systems. Recently Coast Guard stopped 150 ships to check them... not one was Y2K compliant. Neither are the ports. Not only can they not get "it" into port, but they don't know where it goes if they do get it into there.

Recently the Prime Minister for Iraq said point blank - no, we are not Y2K compliant, nor will we be.

How recent is all this data? Within the last 6 weeks.

Why isn't gov't saying anything? Look at banking. If working public took ONE PAYCHECK and cashed it instead of depositing it it would cause a financial crisis. Quote from Koskinen - if everyone bought just one extra gal. of milk, we would have a real shortage. Its called an "artificial shortage". That's whay they are not telling people to prepare, because they don't feel the current supply chain would be able to handle it.

Suppose you had 25 million people in the last week of the year top off their gas tanks. That would create an "artificial shortage". J.A.: I have a friend who works for an international gas company in Mississippi.. and they have noticed an absolute incredible increase in people buying 250 gal. propane tanks. People are starting to stockpile now.. started several months ago. That increase has gone up almost 800% to 900%. That's just for propane.

Is propane in danger? Because most of our supply comes from refineries up in Canada I understand. J.A.: Story out of Canada today that some of their mission critical systems will not make it.. they did not bother to say which ones.

Is the supply of propane as much at risk as gasoline, oil, deisel or natural gas? J.A.: I believe it will for a couple of reasons. People are stocking up. The transportation issue.. being able to get the propane in. I was speaking to my local Emergency Management Coordinator - he says we have things worked out provided trucks are able to make it through the cities.

Jom Lord is talking more about "rolling outages" (not just power- wise)... expecting only about 1/3 of systems will lock up and crash, but lots of systems will keep functioning but have lots of bad data. Problems will accumulate and may be worse in June 2000 than Jan. Will cause delivery problems, supply chain problems.

J.A.: Expect by 3rd week of Jan. will start seeing shortages, empty sheves etc., but will not see full impact until June/July of next year. Once midnight strikes will have some problems, chaos, but it will get progressively worse throughout the next 6 months. A lot of people I have spoken to are looking at Y2K as a 30 MONTH WINDOW.

Yardeni was saying 24 months... that by 24 months would be coming out of recession and even showing tremendous growth. J.A.: That may be, but the people I have are looking at a 30 month window. Not that we will be coming out of it at that time, but at least we will be making some headway. That's a long period of time gentlemen. Let's go back to a 30 DAY scenario. If you get power out in any major city for 30 days, you've got a very chaotic situation. You see the gov't is already planning ahead. Article yesterday that San Francisco will have 1700 Nat. Guard troops to assist the police force. Article today, Nevada is doing the same thing - 500 Nat. Guard and Airmen on duty for that time for "anticipation of crowd control in Las Vegas and Reno". Can increase to 2500 to 5000 within minutes if they decide they need more. [minute 14 of 32... more later]

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), December 03, 1999.

[continued - note... no bitchin' about typos okay?]

Marshall law a very real possiblitiy... if lose power in major cities for any length of time... and if have riots (like Rodney King), there is no other alternative for gov't. McA. - keep hearing that they may move to "Federalize" the Nat. Guard.... suppose to be under govenor's control, but if have Nat. Guard called out in 25 states or 75 cities or something like that, could with a stroke of the pen, Bill Clinton could say "I Federalize all these people". They can also Federalize local law enforcement people as well.

J.A.: Oh they CAN.. and keep in mind, during the Rodney King riots the troops WERE Federalized. That was not a National Guard on a state level... they were Federalized.

McA.: What about during the L.A. riots of 1992? J.A.: That's the ones I'm referring to.

McA: Tell me about the bunker.. what's your take on the bunker? Was $40, now $50 million bunker near the Whitehouse for what has been widely defined as a "non problem"? I understand it is extraordinarily high tech.. maybe for more than Y2K, but what's your take on that? J.A.: Unveiled to the media 2 days ago. Media wide-eyed because they had never seen this kind of technology before. Also brought a reality prespective on Y2K.. because here is a bunker that is going to be activated not with a handful of people as we were originally told, but 250 people will be staffed there from about the 15th of December up until the 15th of March. Gentlemen, that's a 90-day period. We've been told by the current administration to get ready for a 3 day snowstorm, but the Federal Gov't is getting ready for a 90 day period. What's wrong with this picture?

McA: There were other questions asked on Yardeni's last 100-Day conference... the bottom line question was "Don't you think its sort of hyprocritical for the gov't to tell everyone not to worry, but they're telling businesses to have contingency plans. Why are you treating people like children?" But now its almost like an airplane in a stall. If you don't have enough space between you and the ground, you're gonna hit the ground. And that's where we are right now.

J.A. - that was a point that came out at the Y2K symposium. More information coming out at this point would be a detriment, because theres not enough time for people to prepare. I've interviewed (on Y2K News Radio) "who's who" in Y2K, and pretty much everybody encouraged John Koskinen to start warning the people a minimum of year in advance to give them a chance to prepare... but they would not. I think recently they have started to backpedal because they have too good a job... through the Rendon Group that was hired to make Y2K a non-issue. They were hired for $23 million to make Saddam Hussein a bad guy in the eyes of the American people. They did a very good job on that. They were also hired by the current administration to make Y2K a non-issue.

McA: That's very interesting. We are running out of time, but I want you to tell people what they should be doing on Dec. 31st and forward. Our beloved gov't, the president and John Koskinen won't tell us the truth any more than they are now... and the media, which is joined at the hip with the gov't will also help to cover up what's really happening. So.. you could have half the states blacked out and not know it.

[sorry... I'm outta time. If someone can pick it up from here, go for it. I'm at 18 min. out of 32] direct realaudio link

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), December 03, 1999.

Do not leave your home after Y2K degenerates into Chaos. Fight to the death to retain your right to stay put. If you leave your home, (when ordered to), it will be thoroughly searched and you will be stripped of all life sustaining essentials.

Do not do as the Jews did. It is better to fight and die than to be herded as cattle, then worked to death.

STAY IN YOUR HOMES.

Remember: ALL of those who serve officially have taken an oath to obey, support and defend the Constitution of the United States. They did NOT take an oath to enforce Executive Orders.

They must be held accountable or millions will suffer for decades to come.

God Bless America.

-- Joseph Almond (sa2000@webtv.net), December 05, 1999.