Dear Colleagues,

I tried cutting and pasting the on-topic posts before I wrote this, but it is similar to having a conversation with a dozen peopleits too hard to follow. I guess those who havent followed our conversation will just have to miss some of the information. However, if anyone would like to catch up, you can read our prior conversations at:

http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001vbP

http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001wRL

The phone call:

My father knows I am distraught over Y2K, so when I started quizzing him about his oil well, he said that maybe my fears might be somewhat allayed if I spoke to my uncle Joseph. To give you some background, uncle Joe worked on rigs until he started a refinery with two other partners he sold out 20 years ago, and retired to live out his days on a farm in western Kansas. I didnt tape record the conversation (unfortunately) so I cant transcribe it word for word. I did take notes however, and this is what he said:

The reason they arent pumping very much oil out of their wells is because, due to sheer volume, it is cheaper to haul crude in from other countries.

There is more oil in the world than we can ever use.

The reason for that is because oil really is a fossil fuel! I never knew that until yesterday! These people simply dig five feet at a time through formations (Cherokee, Kansas City, Conglomerate, and Arbuckle) until they hit an area where a sample shows microscopic bone oozing with oil. It is the decomposition of animals (and now Im wondering if people are included too.) that make oil. (I also learned that coal is made of the same stuff, it just hasnt been compacted as much.) At any rate, with life, there is death, the cycle continues and ensures oil reserves forever..

My uncle went on to say that there are areas of the earth that have more oil than others, and while Ive been snoozing, technology has advanced to where we can now detect oil in the earth relatively accurately from satellites. There are HUGE deposits in the earth, and it is more cost effective to mine that oil, than use up the comparatively small amount we have here. (I suspect that we have enough here to last us for two lifetimes though.)

Now, that I have covered availability, I will try to address what he said about the computerization of the industry. He doesnt know how the off-shore rigs work, but our oilwells (my familys) have been drilled using diesel powered bits, and it is a mechanical function only (not computerized).

He said that there is nothing on the derricks that is computerized, and they are mobile, so we dont have to keep rebuilding them (and yes, trashcan man; I suspect there is a lot of equipment out there going to rust, because we simply havent needed it). He said the pipelines are not computerized, they work them by manually turning valves. (He went into a 15 minute discourse about propane, gas, and oil separation, but I didnt understand a word of it. He even felt it necessary to tell me that they used to color their product, but now all of it is white. This means nothing to me! But, he is my uncle, and I couldnt say, "Get to the good stuff! How will computers affect the oil industry!" A half hour later, he did:

They use computers to do their billing and word processing.

He said that he hopes the electric company doesnt fail for that reason. He also believes that even if they do fail, they will have it fixed within 5 to 7 days. For that reason, he is stocking up for a week. He doesnt have to do much though because he lives on a farm, has his own well, animals, etc. He is worried about us in Phoenix, because of the "people problem", and I agree with him. Im gonna be laying very low for a little while after the new year.

-- (Ladylogic46@aol.com), December 07, 1999

Answers

Uncle has been retired from the industry for 20 years. Been any changes recently?

-- Brian Bretzke (bretzke@tir.com), December 07, 1999.

You beat me to it Brian, almost word for word. LOL!

And people are always wondering how it can be that there are so many DIVERSE VIEWPOINTS expressed about what Y2K will do, even though they come from "experts".

24 frigging days. Gawd....

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), December 07, 1999.

Refineries use a lot of computers and PLCs. Scheduling, shipping and cracking are automated. The PLC (programmalble logic controller) really only started coming on in the 1980's, after your uncle got out of the business. PLC's are one type of "embedded chip" system.

-- Gary S. (garys_2k@yahoo.com), December 07, 1999.

Pipelines use pumps. Pump motors use electricity. No electricity, no pump. No pump, no pressure. No pressure, no deliveries.

Stop a line full of crude in cold weather and pretty soon it's not liquid any more.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), December 07, 1999.

Pretty much the whole industry is computerized. With so many embedded chips, there's bound to be failures.

-- (brett@miklos.org), December 07, 1999.

OK, Fellas,

I'm not upset with your dissection of my post, varied input is a good thing. But, I have to leave so I'll make this short.

I said he sold his interest in the refinery 20 years ago and retired. He still owns the same oilwells to this day, and they function just the same. Furthermore, unless one of you actually work for, or have worked for, a refinery, I'm going to believe my uncle. He may be retired, but he is still pals around with his ex-co-owners (?) and they're not worried about anything except the billing and word processing.

-- (Ladylogic@aol.com), December 07, 1999.

Sounds like they're in denial. Sad.

-- (brett@miklos.org), December 07, 1999.

Sorry, ladylogic, but I have never seen such a stupidity in my life. Imagine only -- "At any rate, with life, there is death, the cycle continues and ensures oil reserves forever.." Yeah, and Perpetuum Mobile is also possible. Hello. Even school children know that it takes a couple of million years for the process to occur. At our rate of consumption all the reserves will be exhausted in about 50 years.

-- Brooklyn (MSIS@cyberdude.com), December 07, 1999.

Actually Ladylogic is correct about how much oil is available.

The problem is getting it out in sufficient quantities, refining it, and distributing it to where it's needed.

Hell, if I owned my own farm with more water than I needed, I wouldn't be worried about Y2K either.

YOU LIVE IN A CITY IN THE DESERT!!!!!

Get your butt to your uncle's farm for the rollover and after.

Bring him some nice presents so that he will let you stay there.

DON'T BE AN IDIOT!!!!

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), December 07, 1999.

Thanks Brooklyn. From the information in Lady's post I would assume that all grave yards would be over flowing with oil by now.

-- nope (nope@not.now), December 07, 1999.

Lady,

You and your Uncle are totaly correct about the Oil drilling, as far as Refineries go I don't know. I live in an area that has been a major oil producer, WEST TEXAS...Our economy is tolally dependent on OIL, since the price of oil has been so low for the last several years our economy has suffered great set backs. My husband worked in the oilfields around here for 20 yrs also as a Toolpusher, and he has said this all along, the big concern would be getting enough Diesel to run the motors, also alot of the pump jack that send the oil into the flow lines are solar powered here, as we have lots of sunshine.

Local drilling companys have started resently to drill again, because the price of oil is up. As to how much is stocked pilled I don't have a clue. There are huge tank farms in Midland, TX that holds milllions of gallons, flow line production has been slowed as your Uncle said because of the low prices. We have rigs stacked out all over the place and we are hoping the price of oil will continue to rise as we are so dependent on this, lots of folks are out of work here, and the times are hard here for roughneck, welders, and company that produce oil related equipmnet (parts etc)

I do believe there will be shotages and the oil prices will continue to rise, here WE PRAY FOR THIS..And before you all jump down my throat for that comment, you must understand this town and the people need this to put them back to work, if gasoline prices get to $2.50 a gal, if you don't have a job you can't but it. Most of this country has experienced low unemployment and economic splinder, NOT US our unemployment rate is 13%, the national avg. is 4%...

In the late 70's early 80's we had an OIL BOOM when it was over there was a very popular bumper sticker that read. Dear God if you bring us another BOOM we promise not to piss it off..

Another more current bumper sticker today is "TAX IMPORTED OIL""

-- Marli (can'tget@it.duh), December 07, 1999.

LOL, it didn't make sense to me either. Maybe she should change her name - "Ladylogic" doesn't really apply.

-- (brett@miklos.org), December 07, 1999.

"There is more oil in the world than we can ever use."

"The reason for that is because oil really is a fossil fuel! I never knew that until yesterday" ----------------------------------------------------------------------

Oh! Golly, I get it now. The instant a plant or animal dies it is transformed into 1000 times it's body mass in crude oil (or is it already refined too?)

Hold on while I run outside and bury my cat and a couple of potted palms. I'll Be RICH!!!!!!..............

..............Hmmmmm, It doesn't seem to be working. Wait I remember now. Millions of years ago, the planet earth was covered with GIANT rain forests and jungles, and GIANT lizards. The remains of these were buried, and exposed to extreme pressure and heat over the course of hundreds of thousands of years. (Maybe that explains why coal and oil form deep underground instead of in the parking lot at EXXON Corperate HQ.)

This process is continuous, but VERY slow. Also we have cleverly reduced the ammount of surface vegetation over the past few hundred years, so there is not as much source material as there used to be. I'm not sure of the figures, (maybe someone can look them up) but I believe that the population of this rock consumes MILLIONS of BARRELS of oil a day. That's a lot of giant ferns and dino's. Last I heard, present usage would deplete estimated reserves WITHIN our lifetimes. Of course that assumes we can actually get it out of the ground. I hear that some of this stuff is more than TEN FEET underground. Gosh, I better get a new shovel.

-- MegaMe (CWHale67@aol.com), December 07, 1999.

I hope some of you don't own guns...not with the way you shoot from the hip like that.

It is a pleasure to meet you Marli. I'm sure we will have some interesting, informative, and rational discussions when I get back.

-- (Ladylogic@aol.com), December 07, 1999.

GEESH, You people amase me...Someone tries to help you understand how something works, and tries to give us some ray of hope for the future and all you an do in pick the post to death. It's going to be bad real bad, what ladylogic is tring to tell you MORONS is that it is not hopeless we have the resources to recover and we will, in time... Be thankful for at least on moment of PEASE and a chance to breath a little easier....

-- Marli (can'tget@it.duh), December 07, 1999.

Marli, maybe you should just stick your head back in the sand with the rest of the pollies. Who knows, maybe you'll strike oil.

-- (brett@miklos.org), December 07, 1999.

WHAT no one going to responed to my misspelling of PEACE, seem to me that's the sort of thing you look for the most typos and misspelled words, those thinks are SOOOOO important....As our worls comes crashing down around us..PPPLEASSE

-- Marli (can'tget@it.duh), December 07, 1999.

It takes millions and millions of years for oil to be created.

I can't wait to die so I can someday be fuel for some aliens pickup truck./:-)

Some days Laura presents a stationary target and the sharpshooters are always ready and waiting.

When the day comes (50 years ?)when it takes more energy to drill and process than is received from the product then we draw the curtain.

-- red (okie-redneck@webtv.net), December 07, 1999.

Brett, It is obivous that you know nothing about the OIL Business, so all you can do is nit pik and lash out at those who know more than you on a subject. You sir are the one with his head in the sand, pull it out and look up the sun is still shining, however it is obivous you don't want to see it....I am far from being a POLLY, but I unlike you hope for the best, not the worst..I pray your people skills improve before things get really bad, or you might find yourself to be very lonely, but maybe that's what you want. GOOD LUCK TO YOU SIR

-- Marli (can'tget@it.duh), December 07, 1999.

To practically all but Laura and Marli;

Enough, ok?

Please keep in mind that Laura's new at this and she's trying hard to sort a lot of things out. Some of her posts are just "stream-of-consciousness" stuff, and you should see that for what it is; be able to distinguish it from the facts. I don't believe for a moment, and neither should you, that she actually thinks her dead cat will be oil in a few days. So what if she throws a little James Joyce into her pieces?

And if you guys have nothing better to do than heap sarcastic abuse on someone who's doing nothing more than honestly struggling to understand this stuff, then you should get a life.

-- eve (123@4567.com), December 07, 1999.

Marl, Marli, Marli. Isn't it nice that ladylogic is trying to 'splain to us how the nature works. I am sure that my 3-year old son would find this explanation reasonable if only he could read. Too bad he cannot, but I am glad that you can. It is fortunate that some of us were spared the Politically Correct education -- even though our self- esteem suffered from occasional bad grades. At least we know what we are talking about when we are talking about it.

-- Brooklyn (MSIS@cyberdude.com), December 07, 1999.

Well Hot DAMN!!!! Lets just call the two largest pipelines in North America, and tell them "Hold on boys, Ladylogic's retired uncle says to just switch to manual!" Don't worry about the embedded leak detectors that can shut down the line, there is no potential for explosive pressure, cause we can just sit out there and correct these valves manually! What do you mean we don't know exactly where these nonexistant chips are? Oh sorry, my bust, the Alaskan pipeline flows South by gravity I guess, cause when I look at a map, Alaska is higher up on the wall then the rest of the states! I am just so embarrassed now....

My guess is if he doesn't understand offshore, then he won't understand today's onshore either.

Sorry to be crude, but I think he was trying to comfort you.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 07, 1999.

Ladylogic, I'm sure your uncle is right--but consider, if the system for using the available resources is not set to go, will it? What's the point of being defensive, ladies? I thought the aim was to look at what's really happening so we can be prepared, if only mentally. I'm glad they've started reopening some of the U.S. wells, but does that mean production? This is not an ego battle, but an attempt to survive.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 07, 1999.

My Dear Lady Logic,

I am saddened to say that your uncle is wrong about the pipelines and refineries being free of embedded systems. Perhaps 20 years ago this was for the most part true. But not today.

Midland, Texas...Now that is a familuar place. Sure has been a lot of crude pulled up around that neck of the woods. Same with Lamesa, Big Springs,Iiran, Big Lake...To name a few. I personaly grew up around there, and like most kids, earned my very first pay check out in those feilds. ( as a Rod buster for Poole Well Service.)

But the electrical industry claimed my heart about 34 years ago. Now to be a little more specfic. Honeywell corp. received a contract to up date the refineries in North Texas and New Mexico about six years ago. And I was on a couple of the jobs (position-instrument tech)(LOL...But untill the instruments were installed so that they could be calibrated...I sure did a lot of pipe running and cable installing- goes with the territory).

The first one( consisted of two refineries for natural/ propane gas) was at Eunice, N. M. just about 20 miles south of Hobbs. These two refineries where successfully converted. Which means dear lady that they are (untill 2000) able to run the refineries with a little more than a thied less people. And of course, these displaced employees are all gone from the area now. Their jobs disappearing with every instrument I helped install and calibrate.

These two refineries could go back to manual, if the people who know how to run it where there. But they are not.... The Pipelines were updated with a SCADA system, and the pipe line runners where almost to a person terminated.(didn't need any one to go out on a regular schedule to acess the condition of the pumpng stations you see- that could be determined remotely now.--at least untill near or on 01/01/00).

Honeywell subbed the next two refineries out to Nutron Elect. out of La. And I of course secured a position there...Every thing was going according to schedule untill one morning...The Rep. for Hoeywell came on the job site (a refinery-a Diamond Shamrock{one of two we where doing} ) and with-in a hour the word was passed down to cease and desist! The customer didn't want any more of the refinery converted to digital control... We of course, did as ordered. But w where sure curious as to why a multi million dollar contract was forfited by the customer...( This means he had to pay for the work, even if we weren't able to complete it)( because he had backed out of having the work done).

The pipe line part of the contract ( it feeds Colorado- and I heard earlier this year that it had goe down and the gasoline companies it supplied had to go to other pipe lines coming into the state, with their hat in their hands begging for some of their product so as to stay in business untill the problems with the pipe line could be fixed (FOF of course).

About a year back, the two Diamond Shamrock refineries resumed their modernization to digitial controls, I hope that they didn't bow to pressure and let the original control systems be used.

In any case dear Lady this is some of the little I know about my part of the Y2K problems. The other. unalluded to industries, when combned with the oil industry. Has pushed me into infomagic's corner.

And as Cory Hamasaki would say..."Something EVIL this way comes"....

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), December 07, 1999.

Dubyah saw fit to sell his shares in oil and gas companies. GI? perhaps

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), December 07, 1999.

Ladylogic:

I hate to say this, but if you didn't know that oil was a fossil fuel, I suspect that you are truly one of the most ignorant people in the USA.

-- impala (impala@wild.com), December 07, 1999.

Shakey,

Thank you so much for your informed response, this is what we need to hear, not the previous rude nit picking comments from some of the above posters, facts and updates this is what we want. I believe that was the whole point of Ladylogis' post was for constructive insite and debate of Oil production and recovery. OPEC has a good site for reviews. If you want to know how a Drilling rigs operates or what it looks like SEARCH for Drilling Rigs OIL. DUH

-- Marli (can'tget@it.duh), December 07, 1999.

Lot's of good related info here. Newcomers should definitely read some of these threads: Link

-- TA (sea_spur@yahoo.com), December 07, 1999.

'Ol Uncle Joe, he's a moving kinda slow at the junction, Petticoat Junction. Choo-choo.

-- enough is (enough@enough.com), December 07, 1999.

My Dear Mistress Marli,

Thank you for your compliment (though really there should not have been a need for it). Courtasy is a fundimental part of civilized behavior. And it's decorum needs to be observed in times of stress. It is what seperates us from the animals you know.

There is not one poster, not one lurker who comes to this board who is not scared. Some of us to muchly so, that we tend to forget that we are all in the same boat. I will admit to being frightened! I have seen the damage which can occur to physical machinery when the controls lock down when they are in operation. As "Another Engineer" said! It is a wonderous sight to behold when a huge I.D. fan goes wild! The damage caused takes time and material to repair. Some times, depending on the location of the mishap. It can take months, even years to bring a plant or pipe line etc. back on line.

Some companies, like N. Mexico's public utilities do stand a chance of making product (after a slight delay because of Y2K.) But they went back to the 60's tech. on their line switching devices. And they do have one power generation complex at four corners which I know to be free of digital controls (as of three years ago that is). This complex a series of 750 megawatt units are built on the Navaho Res. and do not have the scrubbers on them ( my father helped wire them in in the late 50's and early 60's- the units are that old). New Mexico can subsist on those units, if they can island the state at roll over. I hope they make it...New Mexico and Arizona are my favorite states.

If we loose our grace! Then what else is there. Surely we, as a nation, as a people, can be civil to each other in these trying times. JMHO

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), December 07, 1999.

I found Ladylogic's post interesting. Too bad you all ripped her a new ass.

Brett, why don't you tell us how the refineries and pipelines work?

A few words of wisdom for you ma'am. Don't post anything positive here .... it's not worth the flaming.

-- (Polly@troll.com), December 07, 1999.

Lady was in the chat room the other day bragging how her daddy owns oil wells and she got a phone call from her daddy stating that Clinton was going to lower the price of oil by $6.00 a barrel. If any of you have been in the chat room when Lady shows up, you know what her credibility is don't you?

-- lurkey lou (lurkeylou@lurkeylou.xcom), December 07, 1999.

If your depressed now about Y2K, then don't read this article.

http://dieoff/page173.htm

Titled: "The Best Kept Secret in Washington"

-- really down (reallydown@reallydown.xcom), December 07, 1999.

Laura,

I was asked to come over and explain to you the errors in your uncle's statements, as I didn't know about the post. Lots of 'heavy' dialogue in the thread or so it seems.

Actually, Laura, your uncle is indeed correct about the oil reserves. The real problem is that there can be temporary (days,weeks,months,or years) shortages in production from a technological freeze up called Y2K.

Now you mentioned some geographical names that I equate with an area of southern Kansas (or perhaps Northern Oklahoma?). I take it this is where your uncle's oil wells are? I don't catch the Kansas City connection as it is not an oil patch area. Now, I say all of this for a reason. The areas that your mentioning have only shallow wells that produce only small amounts of oil. These are called "stripper" wells. These wells are so small in revenue production that it was never economical to convert them to automated systems with embeddeds in them. Thus, they are controlled manually. In many cases involving stripper wells, there are no pipelines connecting to their holding tanks that collect the pumped oil near the wellhead. Instead trucks come around and collect the oil on regular intervals. Conclusion: these types of oil wells are Y2K compliant as long as everything it relies upon is reliant (trucks, electricity, diesel fuel, etc). So in that respect, your uncle is indeed correct. Your uncle however, misunderstands or has no clue about the big rigs down in say, Texas, Louisiana and also the offshore oil platforms. These very large wells (which comprise about 80% of USA domestic production output) are loaded with embedded systems because it has been cheaper and more cost effective. Furthermore, ALL the transcontinental and regional pipelines have been "SCADAcized" i.e. loaded in with embedded systems to control the pressure and flow of that product (nat.gas or crude oil or gasoline or diesel or whatever). this scadacizing started back in the early 1980s as a way of cutting costs and lowering payrolls.

Furthermore, its been well-established here that refineries have embedded systems. Some have more than others. Most are heavily loaded with embedded systems. There is not one major oil company executive or engineer that would deny any of these basic facts. It's readily discussed on various industry and oil co. websites. Look up the Shell Oil Co. website. I've only got this one URL handy which cites the embeddeds problems for off-shore equip. =========== http://year2000.dci.com/Articles/19981208petrol.htm

Here's an excerpt:

"The oil and gas industry makes extensive use of embedded systems, which can pose especially challenging Y2K risks. The Institution of Electrical Engineers defines an embedded system as "[a] device used to control, monitor or assist the operation of equipment, machinery or [even an entire] plant." Embedded systems are powered by microchips that contain permanently coded instructions.

Shell estimates that the U.S. contains around 220,000 miles of oil and gas pipeline. These pipes cross all kinds of terrain, from desert to mountains, and even run underneath the ocean. Pumping stations built at regular intervals along the line keep the oil moving at a steady rate. "Pipeline control and terminal operations have become a particularly computer-intensive operation, relying on computer systems to control pumping and to detect any leaks," says John Mills, director of corporate affairs at Shell U.K.

"There are two possible scenarios," explains Dan Looper, national account manager for Y2K at Litton PRC. "A chip could either shut down completely, or it could start transmitting erroneous data: for example, about how much fuel is in the line. This would be the more dangerous situation, because the malfunctioning chip would have to be found and replaced. And that could take time."

As offshore production increases, more underwater pipelines are being laid. "The major problem will be if theres an embedded chip issue in the underwater pipes, especially the deep ones off the shores of Alaska or in the North Sea where the depth of the sea floor is measured in miles rather than feet. There are only a few vessels capable of taking divers down to those depths, and it would cost around $500,000 a dive," Looper says.

The American Gas Association lists some additional areas where embedded systems are utilized. These include control computers; correcting and metering devices; and operations, including calibration of instruments and tracking regulatory compliance. "A typical offshore platform or onshore gas plant uses 50-100 embedded systems. These systems contain anything up to 10,000 individual microchips. We have found that up to half of these systems are critical in terms of production and the impact of our activities on the environment," said Mills.

.

The oil and gas industries are taking steps to address their Year 2000 problems. FERC recently took a Y2K-readiness survey of 800 oil and gas companies. The results were encouraging. About three-quarters of the respondents were classified as small companies, with yearly revenue of up to $49 million, and eight percent took in more than $1 billion per year. As of September 1998, most of the companies surveyed were in the process of either assessing (28 percent) or remediating (26 percent) their embedded systems. All claim they will be Y2K-ready by December 1999. Even if some computerized systems should fail, according to the AGA, many natural gas utilities maintain manual controls as backups.

Looper doesnt believe that Y2K will completely cut off electrical power. "There will probably be a lot of outages and brownouts, but not a nationwide blackout. However," he adds, "I have a lot of reservations about whether any of the national or international oil companies will be ready for the Year 2000. Five years ago, many oil companies trimmed their I.T. and facilities staffs to try to boost profits. They lost a lot of good legacy people that way. And now, when they really need that expertise, they have to pay steep prices to get it."

==========

If you want to see more links to verify the embedded systems problems with the oil industry, go read the 10-Qs of various big oil co's, like Enron, or Chevron, or Shell, or Exxon, Mobile, Texaco, Amoco, Marathon Conoco, or BAKER HUGHES INC. who sells the embeddeds systems to the oil companies and lists what products are non-compliant etc. You'll find them in some of the threads listing oil co 10-Qs.

But your uncle's denial of embeddeds is done out of ignorance of the current status or he feels a need to try and calm you down. Whatever, the case, I don't want you to think that I am be criticizing him or yourself. I think the embeddeds issue has sneaked up on a lot of oil industry folks who are IN the biz right now and still didn't realize the problem until a year or so ago, (despite Co 10-Q statements to the contrary)so your uncle is no different than a lot of the rest of us who didn't pay real close attention to the industry's technological advancements.

Bottom line: The situation in the oil industry is exactly what some of us, myself, Shakey, justanother engineer, Gordon, "Cheryl from Oregon," and others who are working in the oil industry and post here have been saying all along about the oil industry. It's not good and I still say a minimum of 2.2% loss of oil supply (which is the actual Fed stats for the 1973-74 Arab Oil embargo supply shrinkage annualized over the 2 year period)for Y2K is a minimum guesstimate. I am expecting closer reality of 10% to 30% on the high end. It IS theoretically feasible for Y2K to knock out all embedded system wells which would mean an 80% loss of domestic supply (rough estimate) leaving only the "stripper" wells functioning. (like your uncle's and my aunts and uncles small stripper oil wells).

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 07, 1999.

lurkey lou,

Is it possible you misunderstood what she was saying? I doubt that Clinton could lower the price of oil, but if they dump our strategic reserves onto the market, it might have that effect of lowering the price. The Energy Secretary is advising Clinton to wait until after Jan. 1 to decide to sell, but I think they are asking for trouble unless they do it now.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 07, 1999.

enough is: Gawd, yes, Petticoat Junction!! Those three delicious babes, shown at the beginning of each episode peeking out from a huge barrel where they are all bathing together. Perhaps in a ... mudbath.

Gawd.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), December 07, 1999.

Big die-off coming ?

See the following link on energy reserves (or lack thereof).

http://www.dieoff.org/

-- Count Vronsky (vronsky@anna.lit), December 07, 1999.

No misunderstanding Hawk, she clearly said that Clinton was going to reduce the price of oil by $6.00 a gallon. She said she wasn't happy about that because her father owned an oil well. There were several in the room when she said this and perhaps they will post to reaffirm. We questioned her on what authority could Clinton do that.

-- lurkey lou (lurkeylou@lurkeylou.xcom), December 07, 1999.

No misunderstanding Hawk, she clearly said that Clinton was going to reduce the price of oil by $6.00 a gallon. She said she wasn't happy about that because her father owned an oil well. There were several in the room when she said this and perhaps they will post to reaffirm. We questioned her on what authority could Clinton do that.

$6.00/barrel not gallon

-- lurkey lou (lurkeylou@lurkeylou.xcom), December 07, 1999.

Have you all noticed the gender gap on this thread????

Its boys against gorls!!!!

I feel like I'm back in grade school.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), December 07, 1999.

I will repeat in case you didn't hear what I said the first time. <>Please give yourself a Christmas present this year that you can REALLY use. Buy yourself a plane ticket to West Texas on Southwest (I really wish they flew to our airport), rent a car, and

GET YOUR BUTT OVER TO YOUR UNCLE'S FARM!!!!!

You don't have to tell him it's for Y2K if you're afraid he'll think you're a wacko. Bring him a bottle of champagne to toast in the New Year. When TSHTF after New Year's, I'm sure he'll let you stay if you volunteer to slop the hogs.

Reread what Shakey and R.C. posted. It's okay to be afraid, just be SAFE.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), December 07, 1999.

Shakey, thank you for your intelligent response.

Ladylogic, I feel bad about my snide comment, when I realize you were trying to help. You aren't expected to be an expert in that field, and I was way outta line.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 07, 1999.

The problem with miss "Logic" is she has more brains than sense.

-- omegaman (wesh@ll.see), December 07, 1999.

while we're on the topic of oil, a large refinery in Thailand suffered an explosion (tentative causes, human error, technical error - covers just about everything, doesn't it?). first news reports said it would be back up in one, week, the next day it was a month, today, it was reported that it will be closed for three months. Just interested because I did not see this story reported anywhere else. Sorry, I'm technologically challenged, but it was reported in the Asia Wall Street Journal, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, December 6, 7, 8.

-- lanina (lanina1963@yahoo.com), December 08, 1999.