i feel that there are a couple of critical bet sizes.

• one of these two bet sizes occurs at the point in which you first achieve a ~0.5% advantage over the house. the reason this bet-size is so important is because of the frequency with which it occurs.

  because this advantage point occurs so much more frequently than any other advantage point, it will play an important role in your overall performance. you really shouldn't hold out for a slightly better count 'just to be sure'... you need to get the money on the felt when you have any kind of advantage (just don't overbet).

  disregarding variance for a moment: the more money you bet when you have an advantage, the more money you will make (regardless of actual results). the less money you bet when you are at a disadvantage, the less money you will lose.

• the other major critical bet size is your top bet. when you place your top bet and how you play when your top bet is out will determine your overall performance to a great degree. even though the frequency of such bets is small, the large size of the bet determines much about your overall performance. regardless of the stuff that happens when the 'little money' is on the table, the results of your few big bets tends to determine whether an individual session will be a winner or a loser.

  if you play roulette for 100 spins of the wheel at a dollar a pop... and then for one spin, place a bet of $1000... how many times have you played the game for this session? well, mathematically you could correctly state that you played 101 times; but you could also state correctly, that statistically you only played once. this is true because all your relevent results are clustered around that one spin.

  i guess that the point here (in part) is that the weighted frequency of your big bets is also large... even though they occur so rarely (relative to your 'first advantage' bet).

i realize i'm telling you stuff you already know, but sometimes i think we all need to be reminded of some basic stuff.

thanks for putting up with my preaching.

-- Anonymous, December 12, 1999