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Russ Kelly, CSP, Columnist November 12, 1999

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Near Anderson, South Carolina on Interstate 85, a truck driver falls asleep and four trucks careen into each other, jamming themselves into a twisted pile of wreckage. Only a few weeks earlier and short miles away, a chain-collision wreck slammed two trucks and three cars into each other, killing three. Are these late 1999 incidents ironic twists of fate, or are they the price we must pay for a booming economy and a huge demand for goods?

Recent media reports and transportation studies suggest that our trucking industry is sorely overburdened and dangerously close to a transportation industry equivalent of a nervous breakdown. Poorly trained drivers, lax checking and enforcement of trucking regulations, improperly maintained equipment, and driver overload is behind a shocking rise in fatal truck accidents on our nations highways. Large truck accidents are killing 5,000 people each year and we can only expect this number to surge to new heights in 2000, as demands on the industry accelerate.

These are not isolated examples, but just two recent examples demonstrating the potential disaster looming over the trucking industry horizon. Neither is it an indictment of our already over stressed trucking industry, but rather, it is the price we must pay for the boom times were enjoying. More than 190 trillion miles are safely driven by competent and courteous drivers behind the wheels of 7 million, mostly well maintained trucks, each year. Yet, as we tax the capacity of the system, we should expect to see lesser-qualified drivers, more driving hours between rest stops, and more poorly maintained trucks and trailers. The same rules of supply and demand apply to every industryexcessive demand fuels inefficiency and degraded performance.

And that is the rub for 2000our trucking industry is about to be sorely overstressed and simply will not be able to meet demand. This is likely to lead to a tragic rise in the number of fatal truck accidents during the next twelve months. I expect that our already high truck accident fatality rate will double next year. The demands on trucking, and the problems from trying to meet that demand, will likely lead to temporary nationalization of trucking. There will be many sound arguments for nationalization, including demands by business along with public clamor for government to step in and "fix" the problem. Washington will be more than eager to comply with a nationalization solution. I should point out that no one other than myself has publicly stated his or her belief that nationalization will occur.

Why is this trucking over-stress likely to occur? Very simply, our other forms of transportation will have Year 2000 failures that reduce performance to intolerable levels. Airfreight and rail have a number of Year 2000 issues that will seriously erode their ability to deliver. Trucking, with few Year 2000 issues of its own, will be expected to pick up the slack and to keep up with our heavy demands for "just in time" deliveries of raw materials and components to our factory floors. We have become heavily dependent on this JIT (Just In Time) concept, and a delay of deliveries for even a few hours is enough to cause the temporary shutting down of assembly lines. When that happens, we send workers home, paychecks are smaller, consumer confidence is eroded, and we have the ingredients for a significant economic downturn.

There are no easy answers to this dilemma. Stricter requirements for driver qualifications, tighter limits on driving hours and beefed up enforcement of regulations and maintenance inspections will help in curbing the expected trucking onslaught. Business must be a partner in reducing the demands on trucking by building slack in their delivery requirements and becoming less dependent on "just in time" concepts. Frequently, "tweaking" the computerized scheduling systems can build the cushion we need for keeping the trucks humming and rolling under safe conditions in 2000.

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Russ Kelly is a Year 2000 consultant, 36 year software pioneer, Certified Systems Professional, editor of "Kellys Year 2000 Digest," professional speaker, columnist with his column "Year/2000 and You" read in several business journals and on the Internet, and host of the award winning year 2000 awareness website www.russkelly.com. He is a frequent guest on regional television and radio, and worldwide Internet audio broadcasts. He is one of three entrepreneurs featured in the 1999 edition of South Carolina Business. He is the author of several published articles, and is frequently quoted in local and national publications. His book "Y2K: An Equal Opportunity Destroyer" was published in July and can be ordered from www.russkelly.com. He can be reached at Russ@russkelly.com.

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), December 15, 1999

Answers

Um, nationalize trucking because accidents might go up otherwise? right. This is the trend I keep hearing: the .gov plots to "protect" us by assuming control of our ________ industry. Insert (trucking, gun, internet, housing, tobacco, ... perhaps gas, food, water?) How bout the .gov wipe Russ's a$$ for him too! Oh, nursing home industry... yep, I don't see this happening anytime soon. I don't know any teamsters, but I hear they have quite a reputation, and I think the .gov have enough on their plates right now.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 15, 1999.

I understand alot of truck drivers and trucking firms plan to sit out and watch for signs of Y2K troubles from Dec 23 to Jan 3.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), December 15, 1999.

The misinformation and scewed data mounts! Expect it to come to a head on 12-31-99, and by the time the entire world is in 2000, there should be enough deaths due to stress and strokes and heart attacks to blame Y2K for all of them.

Planes won't fly, trucks wont truck trains won't roll-its going to be chaos, people will riot, nuclear meltdowns, neighbor shooting neighbor. It's what TB2000 is all about and why it is here so people can prepare for these events.

Thinning the population can only help the enviroment, right? Doesn't anyone want to be realistic and use the information we have and try to know what the situation really will be? It's so close now that the extreme ideas are not just something we talk about happening in the future, it is here now, two weeks and we will have a good idea of what we have worried about for so long.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), December 15, 1999.

Cherri, are you talking about this information !!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), December 15, 1999.