"Gulf Oil Exports in Doubt - Bloomberg"

You have to get this article by Bloomberg from Gary North. Bloomberg removed it after about 4 rs.

www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/7181

In the middle of this sobering article, Koskinen says everything is fine.

One of our major oil companies with interests in the area has been super helpful. They have "organized training workshops and set up in-house committees." That would be a humerous comment if the situation were not so deadly serious.

"Governments and companies in the Middle East won't be ready for the date changeover on Jan. 1,2000, due to a lack of funding to deal with the 'millennium bug' computer glitch, the United Nations has said in a report."

After reading this, let me know if you think oil is going to get here. No/not enough oil = no electricity. This article is so bad.

-- Anonymous, December 20, 1999

Answers

After Koskinen says, "...we're optimistic there won't be any interruption in oil flow," he says, "However, our oil inventories are sufficient to handle any eventuality for a few weeks." How long is a few weeks? More than one, so two? Isn't several usually three, no more than four? If it were four, he could have said a month. So, I'm thinking a few is two. Would that be electricity for two weeks if nothing else failed? Of course, if any important embedded systems fail, maybe we don't have two weeks? Have you found yourself going around and around in circles trying to figure out which "glitch" is going to get us? There are too many of those dots. I just can't get them to all hang together.

-- Anonymous, December 20, 1999

Marcella,

Marcella,

I am speechless when it comes to our present administration. I cannot hardly keep up with the double talk.

As far as oil goes, we will just have to see what happens. There is no way of telling what the truth is.

My hunch is that we will be in desperate trouble but then again, things will be just fine. LOL

As far as Mr. North is concerned, it would appear that he has gone over the edge. I kind of feel sorry for him actually. He delivered a low blow to Rick today.

It is ugly because it indicates that the man has some sort of desperation to see the world fall apart.

Date: 1999-12-20 08:38:38 Subject: Rick Cowles Restructures His Site; Now Focuses on Deregulation Link: http://www.energyland.net/index.htm

Comment: When he started his Web site, Rick Cowles got this address: euy2k.com -- electric utilities y2k. No longer. Now it's energyland.com. The site now discusses deregulation.

What does this tell us? I think it tells us that his wife won the argument.

-- Anonymous, December 20, 1999

i think that you are interpreting gary north incorrectly... .

if you consider the fact that he has withstood the 'slings and arrows' from every sector and still managed, though how, i can't comprehend, not to falter; steadfastly maintaining both his site and his position that y2k is a 'serious' problem while others, and some of the stronger among us, have capitulated or had second thoughts...

he just might be feeling a bit lonely.

rick has realized that enough has been said, the die is cast, and is looking further down the pike...

gary is still worrying about the immediate future... and who knows, he may be right... deregulation may be a moot point.

we will all know shortly.

we are somewhat jaded, but, if you consider that everyday there are more and more 'get its' gary north is performing a very necessary but lonely vigil.

-- Anonymous, December 20, 1999

My point was that Mr. North should leave this kind of comment out of it.

"What does this tell us? I think it tells us that his wife won the argument."

If he is going to lower himself to this kind of derogatory remark, even if he is stressed out, maybe it is time to close up shop.

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

Sorry Norm,

I agree with Marianne's analysis. I have seen very few couples where the husband and wife agree on the subject of y2k, but most seem to be of the opinion similar to - "I know you're crazy, but I will go along because I love you anyway."

Gary North needs to continue what he is doing, as he is doing it against tremeendous pressure. If everyone followed your 'go with the flow' attitude nothing great would ever be accomplished.

Rick has taken a different position, and gone beyond TETOWAKI and started work on the aftermath. Also a good idea. It is one that I am also working on, as I figure I am personally prepared as well as my friends and I can be for TETOWAKI and if we are wrong, great, we need to go beyond that and work on what comes next - Rick's position.

Gary North's position and work will serve for geneerations of study in mass psychology, whether or not we have TETOWAKI. His future position is also secured and stopping short at this time would be really stupid.

By the way, you might take Bill Gates plans into consideration, and I quote from Matt Drudge:

XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT XXXXX MONDAY, DECEMBER 20, 1999 21:44:08 ET XXXXX

REPORT: BILL GATES SHUNS USA FOR Y2K

Bill Gates, the world's richest man, is planning to spend New Year's Eve far away from America's shores.

According to published reports in Australia, Gates is planning to be on pal Kerry Packer's $40 million boat, Arctic P, for New Year's Eve. The converted Navy ship will be moored off Garden Island, the Navy base in Sydney Harbor, according to the DAILY TELEGRAPH.

One Australian newscast suggested on Sunday that Gates was leaving the United States in fear of Y2K computer fallout -- a charge one MICROSOFT executive called "ridiculous".

Gates' friendship with media mogul Packer, and a chance to be in the right time zone when the clock explodes zero are said to be the factors.

Gates has not publicly revealed his Y2K plans.

================ To each his own - clinton's got his u-rent it whitehouse and bunker stocked with 9 months of food, and a $50 million control room while telling everyone 'no big deal'.

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

One thing to add - I wonder if Ted Turner and his wife Jane Fonda are going to spend y2k down on their ranch in Patagonia, at the southern tip of South America? They bought it about 2 years ago, after y2k initially reared it's head publiclly.

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

All right, people, get back on track. My original post has nothing to do with Gary North. He posts articles he finds and he posted this one from Bloomburg. I do not care if he is for green tea or black tea, white socks or black socks and I don't care about Rick's y2k relationship with his wife if he has one. I do care about the information from Bloomburg about the readiness of oil producing countries. This information is current and to the point. We are in a heap of trouble here.

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

Bloomberg removed it after about 4 hrs.

Yes, North seems to think it was there and gone in a flash. However, this was a Sep. 19 article, not a Sep. 20 article. I e-mailed it to some of my friends, Sunday afternoon. IOW, it was gone a few hours after he found it, not a few hours after it was posted at Bloomberg.

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

xBOB,

"By the way, you might take Bill Gates plans into consideration, and I quote from Matt Drudge:"

Look man, we have all of 10 days to go and I personally see the possibility of very big problems with oil. What Bill Gates does is of no consequence at this time.

Marcella,

"and I don't care about Rick's y2k relationship with his wife if he has one."

Marcella, if you do not care about this sort of thing then what is there to care about. Your physical comfort? I enjoy the benefits of electricity and gas as much as the next person but it is not worth developing an attitude about. To me, preparing psychologically for problems that we have never seen before has been as much of Y2K preps as anything else. It has caused me to pause and be greatful for the many blessings which God has bestowed upon us.

If I lose air conditioning next summer because the fuel situation has degraded the utility industry, I do not plan on arguing with my wife about it.

"I do care about the information from Bloomburg about the readiness of oil producing countries".

And so do I, and I am still keeping up with current news. But good grief, the ship has hit the iceberg, we are days away from seeing the affect of the damage on the hull. Now is not the time to attack people personally.

Mr. North is the one who needs to stick with the topic.

By the way, I am remain in the area of a 7 on the 1 - 10 scale.

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

Marcella:

I tend to hold any Bloomberg stories up for further review. Their Y2k summaries of late have riddled with factual errors.

While I'm not discounting the possible severity of this situation in the gulf region, I have a number of concerns about this article that I hope to address later.

Interestingly, though, this article refers to Y2k as a "theoretical problem." Another Bloomberg story out today about oil companies concentrating on a New Zealand refinery lists Y2k as a "hypothetical problem." I'm not sure this comes from disciplined research on the date change issue, or "faddle" as it used to be called.

"Faddle": Faulty Date Logic

(Oh, I just love that term. We're in a faddle of a mess, aren't we?)

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

lane... there you go again -- confusing everyone with facts. god, i hate when you do that!!

Bloomberg removed it after about 4 hrs.

Yes, North seems to think it was there and gone in a flash. However, this was a Sep. 19 article, not a Sep. 20 article. I e-mailed it to some of my friends, Sunday afternoon. IOW, it was gone a few hours after he found it, not a few hours after it was posted at Bloomberg.

marcella... mellow out. we are screwed. all we can do is pray that the grid holds... it is going to be bad enough if it doesn't.

if it doesn't... that drink you and i plan to have is going to have to take place midway between here and texas. we will have to travel by horse and leave several months before our proposed time of arrival. in addition to that... one of us will have to learn to make moonshine.

never in human history have so many humans blindly trusted that so many other humans won't screw up.

ed yardeni

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

1. No, I am not concerned with any y2k relationship between husband and wife. That is their relationship and their business.

2. My personal comfort is swell to have, but I have prepared to have that which will keep my family alive. Yep, I consider that very important. 3. Believe Lane meant to say "Dec.", not "Sept." I bow to his knowledge that the post was earlier than Gary North knew. Honest mistake for Gary, no big deal.

4. Not going to waste time bashing Gary North. A useless pursuit. If you don't care for his personal beliefs, don't read them. If you want to use the site as a short cut to recent articles, then punch in. Or not.

5. Yes, marianne, I think we are screwed.

6. I have stored many bottles of wine and have a friend who has horses. I'll just load bottles on the back of a horse and and meet you, say in northern Missouri maybe? Have to look at a map and come up with half way point.

7. I see no way to have enough oil. We could have electricity until maybe third week of January if everything else works. Doubt everything else will work. I am a 6 so not giving up hope. Think that is where Yardini is now. Smart man. Agrees with me. Funny how that works.

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

Marcella,

You may not want to go to Missouri. Here in Texas approximately 380 of our 400+ power plants run on natural gas, local supply. If they don't crash because of y2k problems we should have power. If y2k crashes them we are really screwed.

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

Marcella,

By the way - we have added bicycles in addition to our horses The bikes don't do wine so well though, carried either internally or externally.

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

Marcella,

There certainly could be supply problems with oil, and that would impact a bunch of utilities as you note. But there is also a possible supply problem with coal. My own utility uses coal for about 50% of it's generating. A couple weeks of oil, a couple weeks of coal. Sounds like we'll know for sure by the end of January.

-- Anonymous, December 21, 1999

Believe Lane meant to say "Dec.", not "Sept."

Ooops. I must have fallen back into that darned time warp again. :-) Thanks.

-- Anonymous, December 22, 1999