http://www.businesstoday.com/techpages/y2koil12231999.htm

[Fair use/educational purposes]

Ports and terminals worldwide have set oil loading and vessel movement bans of between four and 24 hours to cover the millennium turnover period, but most shipping channels will be open.

Port authorities in most regions have applied the restrictions to prevent computer-related failures associated with the change of date to 2000 affecting cargo handling operations.

But although extra tugs may be on duty, most major shipping channels will operate as normal.

Two of the world's busiest channels, the Dover Straits in the English Channel and the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia and Singapore, will not operate any extra restrictions on top of their normal traffic separation and vessel regulation schemes.

However, Turkey has said it will close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to all ships over 200 metres in length for 15 hours from 1400 hrs GMT on December 31 to minimise the possible effects of the millennium bug.

Fears had been expressed that ships navigational, steering or oil pumping equipment could break down as embedded computer chips failed to recognise the date change to 2000.

Over the last 18 months most major shipping operators have worked to adopt the provisions of an International Maritime Organisation (IMO) approved Year 2000 safety protocol.

``The shipping industry is generally well prepared with regard to equipment testing, contingency planning and expecting the unexepected,'' International Chamber of Shipping Secretary General Chris Horrocks said.

But there are still fears that many smaller operators may not have taken action to check for Y2K failures.

Most port operators are asking vessels to confirm they have made all the necessary checks before docking over the days just before New Year and taking extra care over the critical hours just before and after midnight.

UK LOADINGS SUSPENDED AROUND MIDNIGHT

Loadings of North Sea benchmark Brent crude oil at the Shetland Islands Sullom Voe terminal will be suspended for six hours from December 31 into the New Year as a precaution against the millennium bug, port sources said.

``There will be no loadings between 2100 GMT and 0300 GMT the next morning,'' an official at Sullom Voe's port control told Reuters.

At the Welsh port of Milford Haven all petroleum handling operations have been suspended between 2300 GMT on December 31 and 0100 on January 1 with port movements stopping an hour earlier, a spokesman said.

Liquid cargo and bunker transfers will not be permitted within the hours of darkness during the New Year period at terminals within the Port of London Authority.

A spokesman at the UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency said it would be manned as though it was a busy summer's day - an unusual occurrence for midwinter.

Four large standby tugs are already on station at sea - with vessels ready to deal with emergencies covering the Shetlands/Orkney area, Western Isles and Outer Hebrides, Dover Straits and Western approaches off Falmouth.

In Rotterdam a ``critical period'' will operate from 1000 hours local time (0900 GMT) on December 31 until 1400 hours on January 1 with restrictions on movements and docking already in place.

Extra vessel speed and distance restrictions would also be operated.

At Marseilles, in France, an emergency team will be on duty and a total vessel movement stoppage will be enfored for two hours before and after midnight.

Norway's Statoil has said it would also suspend offshore crude loadings for a few hours before and after midnight. No tankers will be connected to loading buoys during that time.

In Singapore the critical period will operate from 1800 hours local time on December 31 to 2200 hours on January 1. Compulsory piloting and tug escorts will be required for all tankers over a draft of six metres.

Saudi Aramco has informed shipping agents of restrictions for tankers using the country's ports and said planned December crude oil lifting commitments would be met by December 31.

A Saudi Aramco report sent to shipping agents said a loading stoppage will be scheduled between 2330 local time on December 31 and 1230 on January 1 (0330-0430 GMT January 1) at Ras Tanura, Juaymah, Yanbu oil terminals and refined products terminals at Jeddah, Jizan, Duba and Rabigh.

The U.S. Coastguard said earlier in the year that it did not expect Y2K issues to affect American port operations.

It would allow vessels and facilities which had demonstrated they had adequately addressed compliance issues to operate normally, the Coastguard said.

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), December 24, 1999

Answers

No wonder Bill Richardson is telling everyone not to fill up their gas tank, and the Feds are blitzing us with media overkill terrorism warnings to make sure we stay home.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 24, 1999.

I'm still thinking it doesn't make sense to shut down pipelines and loading ports and not do so in the undaughted complexites of a refining operation. Are we gonna see refinery shut downs, throttle backs or both? If you lose power at a pipeline or loading port pump station, its no biggee. Bring it back up when you can. But if a refinery goes through a hot shutdown, its a prob.

NYMEX and spot market crack spreads still aren't reflecting any refining disruption risk. I'm still wondering if its an opportunity or are we pompous enough to believe that we know more than than the industry insiders?

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), December 24, 1999.

DS,

Believe me they KNOW what is going to happen - they will bluff right until their last gasp.

From another thread,

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002593

[snip]

Dr. Fox indicated that,

- By this time next year, the panic factor will be in full force and rationing will be in effect.

- Of great concern are DOD, FAA (them pesky guys again) healthcare and state and local governments (especially water systems).

- Within DOD, nuclear weapons management and logistics systems were cited as most critical.

- Three of the five oil refineries in Venezuela (which provides some seventeen percent of the oil supply in the United States) will not be compliant in time and will have to be shut down. These and other problems "will lead to disruptions" in the flow of oil.

- Medicare will "fail massively."

- The State Department is still in the "Quill and Scroll" age

- Unsatisfactory performance in dealing with Y2K is indicative of the poor management systems and practices in use in the federal government.

- A comprehensive national level strategy is still needed.

- Everyone needs to prepare for Y2K and they need to start now." (end quoted material)

Jim Lord is the second source and confirms "the congressional aide's" dire assessment.

Dr. Fox later claimed that he his prediction of rationing had been misrepresented by Jim Lord. To the best of my knowledge he has not commented on the other statements attributed to him.

Note the specificity of Fox's prediction: "three of five refineries will fail". Again, this guy is not guessing. This goes to the root of my own suspisions, namely that TPTB actually do know quite a bit, that no one knows what is going to happen, but 'they' have a really good idea. I don't believe that our intelligence gathering and assessment capabilities are so poor that 'they' cannot come up with some fairly detailed information. Their information makes the Naval War College scenarios look like my 'back of the envelope' scratchings in terms of depth and quality (certainty) of analysis. This is what makes the bunkers, the massive generators, the executive orders, the 'mock' attacks on American cities, etc. so horrifying. People, they are *not* guessing. They are not 'playing the odds', contemplating 'risks vs. stakes', or buying 'insurance policies'. They know. This is what makes the other prognostications by Dr. Fox so horrifying. He is not just guessing! But I digress.

So then, if Dr. Fox Knew that the Venezuelan refineries would fail and 'suspects' "up to a 46% oil shortfall" (plus other disasters) which he seems to ascribe to embedded system failures - did Horn Know as well? Did Bennett know? Did Dr. Fox keep these assessments private, only sharing them at Futurist conferences, until late this year?

Are Dr. Fox's speculations something conjured de novo from his own mind? Is this his private analysis? Of course not.

People, this is Dr. Fox's *job*. His purpose in being an aide to the committee is to gather and analyze information. It is, really, totally inconceivable that the knowledge he obtained through these efforts would not be shared with Horn and Bennett. It seems just as unlikely that this expert's opinion and information would not be highly regarded by the committee co-chairman. They hired him and have retained him based on his credentials and his abilities.

Horn knew.

Bennett knew.

Clinton knew.

And they knew well before December 16, 1998. With all due respect to Paula Gordon, I do not embrace the theory that Clinton and other top level officials have been simply ignorant of the nature, scope and severity of this problem. Whatever else you may think of Clinton, I believe he is a brilliant man. I may be wrong, but I believe we need to look deeper before we begin to understand how we got to this point, at least so far as public policy and public disclosure issues are concerned.

[end snip]

Be sure to read the thread and follow-ups from Dr. Paula Gordon...

One last thing - the timing of the Venezuelan tragedy is just downright... eerie - anyone know anything about HARP???

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 24, 1999.

Indeed i agree with your assesment that the powers that be will bluff until the last minute. This bluffing tactic is not restricted to the oil complex. Thw entire commodity complex has been manipulated for many years to make the inflation appear to be benign.

For example, the US sold off its strategic stockpile of palladium over the past couple of years just to keep the market "under control". They have now run out and Russia is the only substantial supplier of Palladium to the world. Palladium is now trading at record high prices.

The government has been heavily manipulating the price of gold, silver, platinum, oil and virtually every other real commodity. Folks, we are on the verge of the greatest inflationary spiral of our lives. It will be breathtaking!

Remember the Y2K mantra:

"A commodity in hand is infinitely more valuable than a promise to deliver"

-- oilyboy (oily@rig.net), December 24, 1999.