OK, We've been hashing this y2k stuff over for months. Now I want specifics.

On Thursday the Dow closed at 11,405.

Feb NYMEX crude closed at $25.87

Post your best estimate of where the Dow will close at the end of this week and where Feb crude prices will close. Give some short verbage as to why. Limit to one or two sentences.

Now give the same Dow and crude estimates on the end of the first trading day in 2000 + short verbage. If you don't think the exchanges or their power/phones/whatever will be up, answer accordingly.

I'll monitor and compile the answers and post the 3 closest guesses and winners (If I'm able).

Now THE PRIZES. The winners will get the following 3 weekend getaways!

First Place: A weekend with LadyLogic in her padded psyco ward cell in Phoenix!

Second Place: : A mud spa weekend in Spain with Royalty!

Third Place: Room and Board in Porky's Cell Block D!

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), December 26, 1999

Answers

how about a 4th prize: ones head up greenspan's ass for an entire weekend!

-- Me (I@sawit.com), December 26, 1999.

Downstreamer,

You are the one that needs to tell us. I don't have a clue.

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), December 26, 1999.

DOW - 14245

NYMEX crude - 25.34

-- Bernard (Llama man@cool.net), December 26, 1999.

Dow at 10,000 by 4:00 tommorow afternoon, 8,000 or less by Friday.(Last week of the year seems like a good time to panic doesnt it?) Crude at $40-$50+++ a barrel late this week. (Fears that none of the oil producing countries are compliant.)

Neither will be open for business for a long time after the CDC, so I dont have any preditions for you.

Later, Jim Bob

-- Jim Bob (izzitover@yet.com), December 26, 1999.

Dow opens at 8,035. (Wild guess)

Jan NYMEX crude opens at $33.04 (Another wild guess)

If I happen to be the winner, I'll raffle off my prizes...

-- (ladybuckeye_59@yahoo.com), December 26, 1999.

Downstreamer,

I think everyone who talks about where the DOW will be at some future time is an optimist, I don't anticipate it will survive. I expect us to have more compelling issues to deal with. Also, I decline on the prizes just the same. Give them to someone who deserves them more.

-- Michael (michaelteever@buffalo.com), December 26, 1999.

IMHO

Dow: 11,540 close

Oil: 26,50

-- Billy Boy (Rakkasan101st@Aol.com), December 26, 1999.

OK, I'll take the first shot at it:

End of this week Dow = 11,000. Crude oil= $26.80. If markets were gonna be concerned about this stuff they would have already reacted. Book squaring and a slow trading week.

End of 1st trading day of 2000. Dow =9,300. Crude = $31.40 mostly on foreign 3rd world oil disruptions and some kinda Hussein shenanigans. US and Mideast Gulf oil producers do OK. Flame away.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), December 26, 1999.

This week

DOW - 12111

CRUDE - 25.77

Ist Trading Day

DOW - CONTOLS KICK IN (limit down)

CRUDE - LIMIT UP

P.S.

I decline all three prizes unless the Spanish Holiday includes one of the Monaco babes...

If I win first I donate my prize to @...

If I win third it goes to the media whore hack establishment brown nose Bad Company...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 26, 1999.

I am such a state of shock that the markets are where they are and there is food on the shelves that I can't play. We went out for an incredible and fancy buffet today at Disney Vero. Would I have guessed in August that this would be possible now? No! I rushed to get out of the City by mid-October, thinking the buying spree would actually begin at least by 9/1. This is so darn eerie. Yet, thankfully, one meets people who are concerned and prepped. The waitress at Disney today said she lives on a farm and they have livestock and water!

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 26, 1999.

Jan's probably dead at this point, the game is Feb.

Current Access Quote: FEB 2000 26.09 up 0.22 cts

I put it at 28.50, also it will go limit up for sure. I think although this week will be thin trading, we will see some players step out and get risky. There's still plenty of individuals with big stones to throw around out there, not the least of which is Saddy.

As for the Dow, I go around 10k somewhere.

PS-Provided the world survives this, (and that's a big freaking IF) I would like to get together with some of the oil hands on this board in the New Millenium. Information exchange for research purposes only don't you know. I would like to start up a board similar to this one and get Andy, Downstreamer and some of the other sages from this board. If you guys are interested email me at

g_gecko_69@hotmail.com

if we make it, we'll get together and have some fun with our research in the new year.

Funny thing, I went and finished off my fuel prepping tonight. Can't tell you how bizzare it is to know that a supply crunch is comming, hell it's on the horizon, and the general public has no clue. Blissfully unaware of the impending panic.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), December 26, 1999.

I may as well give it a shot. So far I have missed every option position (ouch) and was wrong on my guess earlier this fall that the DOW would sink. AG keeps printing money.

DOW 10500 end of this week Oil $27

Jan DOW and oil limit down.

If anyone wants to make money then bet against me. I might.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), December 26, 1999.

Lillogic you pultroon,

DS was right - oil has gone from $11 to $27, an increase of 250%

There is already an enrgy crucnch - it will hit big time in the first three months...

I hope you run 3 hummers you dumb bitch!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 26, 1999.

Not much change this week, but Jan. 3, watchout!

Regardless of whether or not there are obvious Y2K disruptions, there will be massive tax selloffs, circuit breakers will blow, and the markets will temporarily close down. Greenspin will then come out and stroke all of the sheep, lulling them back to sleep. If there are significant disruptions, all of the stroking in the world won't calm them, so he'll try to shut the markets down as long as he can.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 26, 1999.

Mike, I share your pain.....

-- DaveW (dwood@southwind.net), December 26, 1999.

Downstreamer: Good questions. All of my winnings should be donated to the Debunkers Forum:

Year-end Dow 10,900 Profit taking at year-end gets alittle ahead of itself. Portfolio mangers dont want to lose too much of theyre hard won gains.

Feb NYMEX Oil market will not react much this week. No reaction until the oil producing countries start to come clean on true status.

1/23/00 Dow Down 430 to 10,470.

-- gary (a@a.com), December 26, 1999.

DS -- Have you or anyone checked implied volatility for Jan. Dow/SPX puts? Be right back.

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), December 27, 1999.

CBOE shows 22.37% VIX. Plugging that into Etrade's option analyzer for DJX shows Jan and Feb calls coming in right at that level. But puts are nearly half a point lower (2.5/2.0, 3.5/3.0 roughly) than their implied Black & Scholes value at 22.37 volatility. I don't want to go back to replug different V's, but it looks like the Bears have been "bullied" into quiescence, eh?

Unfortunately, one of the factors in betting bearishly is the default possibility that the options exchange cannot pay off your winning bet, either do to computer malfunction or financial meltdown, so a put buyer would have some such discount tagged onto his premium's value. A call buyer (optimist) would not be thinking any such thing, right? Thoughts?

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), December 27, 1999.

Downstreamer:

I'll give it a whirl.

Oscillators are essentially moving into neutral here. I suspect this is partly due to weak volume.

12/31..

Oil/Feb2000 = $27.95 on thin trading... probably won't pick up much til the last 2 trading days.

DJIA-30 = 11,100... goes up the first 3 days...and gets spooked by Friday.

On 1/3/2000 --

Oil -- No trade -- closed due to "technical problems" DJIA -- No trade -- closed due to "technical problems"

Should they open and no media reports oil problems... market will lock limite down on oil Feb.

Should they open and no media reporting problems...DJIA will skyrocket up at least 500 and probably 1,000 points. (FOOLS)

Should they open up and reports of problems start coming in...

OIL will lock limit up... DJIA will Lock limit down...

Now go out and do the opposite of what I say and you'll make a fortune!

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), December 27, 1999.

DJIA = 0 OIL = 0

Reason:

Most of the population of the earth will be dead. . . .

-- (drelt@barthel.org), December 27, 1999.

Whats all this limit up and limit down guesses on the crude? I don't think the first 2 nearbys have limit restrictions (which I dont understand, why have them at all then?). Remember after the first day of the air war in Kuwait? Crude down $10.50 I think.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), December 27, 1999.

Downstreamer,

Now that you mention it, I forgot that the spot month does indeed have no locks in the crude pit... Sorry... in that case, IF its open and trading on the Monday the 3rd... I'll say $39.50 Feb 2000.

Now go back out there and stir that crude pot a bit more! :-)

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), December 27, 1999.

Too tired last night I guess. I meant oil limit up not down.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), December 27, 1999.

January 30, 1999 Close:

DOW Industrials: 11,003 Oil: 29.85

First Trading Day of 2000 (January 10 - Limited Trading) Close: DOW Industrials: 8473 Oil 48.12

But I'm just guessing about the first trading day...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 27, 1999.

My guesses have been so totally worthless to date. However, I read RC's oil posts after a break from the forum for the holidays and then upped my stake in the Prudent Bear by 20%. I've slowly slid into a fairly substantial short position at this point.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), December 28, 1999.