Computer Experts Dismiss Dire Y2K Predictions

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/19991228/tc/yk_predictions.html

http://fullcoverage.yahoo.com/FC/tech/Year_2000_Problem/

http://fullcoverage.yahoo.com/fc/Tech/Year_2000_Problem/news_stories_1.html

We are down to hours before rollover and the news is overwhelmingly positive. I realize the usual suspects will dismiss this as "spin," but turn the clock back to mid 1998. The real experts talking about Y2K 18 months ago were much more dour. The progress made during the past few years has been, in a word, surprising. Frankly, we are in better shape than many predicted... at least in the U.S. Oh, and many of these reports are coming from the private sector... not just gov't sources.

Yes, I know. We are waiting for Jan 1. And I wager the rollover will come with some inevitable problems... but will fall well short of the apocalyptic fantasies so often woven on this forum. In the high tide of positive news, there is without doubt, some spin. But for the objective observer, there's reason for confidence. Y2K did not sneak up on anyone. While we might not emerged unscathed, we most certainly will emerge.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), December 28, 1999

Answers

Ken, I have read a lot of Y2K final statements and analysis in the last few days and it looks dire. If we do emerge, in any shape whatsoever, it will be a miracle. Best of luck to all.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 28, 1999.

You can read both good and bad news, always could. Y2K may be sneaking up faster and far worse then anyone can imagine with that "embedded" thing and all. "apocalyptic fantasies"? one little meltdown and it sure will be apocalyptic for those nearby.

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), December 28, 1999.

The progress made during the past few years has been, in a word, surprising.

Oh, you're much too conservative with this statement. The reported progress has been absolutely unbelievable!

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), December 28, 1999.

Ken,

Have you considered buying some nice bridges. I'm sure i could print up a few deeds on short notice.

-- ns (navyswim@att.net), December 29, 1999.

Well, everything seems to be very serene here. Shelves are overflowing with TP, matches, water and groceries. One store had discounted its gas bottles for camp stoves, and no one was snatching or grabbing.

-- gilda (jess@listbot.com), December 30, 1999.

>> ...but will fall well short of the apocalyptic fantasies so often woven on this forum... <<

Yes. That is a pretty sure bet.

My gut feeling is that Y2K will fall into the immense gap between Nothing At All and Apocaplypse Now. For all those who comfortably believe it will be Nothing At All, any disruption to the smooth functioning of the economy due to Y2K will come as a genuine shock. I expect a lot of shocked people, come a week from now. If I am wrong, hallelujah!

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), December 30, 1999.

I have to agree with Brian. Most people will be surprised, because they have only idle curiosity about y2k and more important things to do with their time, in their opinion. The media are building this up, with 1 day to go. I think they'll cover everything they can find that goes wrong for another couple of days, then y2k will be Old News, and they're on to the next thing -- or that's the game plan. I expect enough problems to disrupt this game plan somewhat.

And people on this forum will be surprised as well. They've been operating by the philosophy that (1) Everything will fail unless proven otherwise to my satisfaction; and (2) No proof otherwise meets my satisfaction. Therefore, everything will fail.

The people who have paid close attention to y2k all seem to have a lot of ego tied up in it, and will interpret whatever happens in their own image. Milne will point to everything that goes wrong as proof he was right, and Bradley Sherman will point to everything that *doesn't* go wrong as proof *he* was right. And as I've said many times before, everyone will say *I told you so* no matter *what* happens.

But the Great Silent Majority will be taken by surprise, not pleasantly. To them, *anything* that goes wrong will be a surprise.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 30, 1999.

ken really is a smug b*stard isn't he? must be nice to be so sure of ones self and worth.

-- JR (ataecho@aol.com), December 30, 1999.