I think it's safe to say that this man speaks for all of us... ************************************************************* www.y2knews.com/aj_lepley.htm

My Final Say

by A.J. Lepley

Managing Editor

Y2K News Magazine

Its been a long haul. A year and a half, 36 magazines (not counting reprints and side projects), tons of interviews, and more daily research into Y2K than you could believe possible. Youd think, after such an intense study into the subject, Id have a myriad of prophetic wisdom to impart before we wrap up this last magazine, pack up the wagons and Y2K News Magazine rides off into the proverbial sunset.

Unfortunately, thats not the case. The truth is Im just as confused as you are. On one side are the mountains of articles, rhetoric and evidence pointing toward mass critical failures on a global scale. That seems a very serious predicament. However, this is tempered by the "good news" stories, political speeches and propaganda insuring a safe and uneventful millennial crossing.

The problem is real. There is too much evidence, if you really look, to dismiss Y2K as a non-event. But I want to believe otherwise. Who wants the world to change so drastically over-night? Change is a scary thing, especially the unknown. I dont want my livelihood disrupted. I dont want my family to suffer discomfort. I dont want mass chaos in my cities. I dont want martial law descending on my nation. I dont want to read by lamplight and cook on a woodstove. My life is fairly comfortable in the grand scheme of things. Only an idiot would look forward to the collapse of civilization as we know it.

The "good news" propaganda by our government and our big business, utilities and banks is very seductive in light of this. They are telling us exactly what we want to hear. I realize this is a concerted effort by these organizations to quell any unrest in the public. I know Im not forced to believe them. I just cant help myself. Every time I read the newest piece of public relations fluff stating that everything will be just fine, I say to myself, deep down, "I hope theyre right."

Over time, this deluge of "dont worry, be happy" media coverage has had an effect on me. Like your mother singing a lull-a-bye when you were a kid, the constant droning familiarity has dulled my awareness of the upcoming millennium. We are being slowly brainwashed. I must constantly remind myself that the problem is still with us despite the propaganda and despite the fact that almost the entire population has decided to ignore the problem. This has probably happened to you to, if you really think about it. Its just easier to want to believe the good news scenario. At the risk of sounding like Obi-wan Kenobi, beware the easy way.

To err on the side of caution is wise. Therefore, it would be prudent to prepare just in case. The evidence is too pandemic and solid to ignore out of hand, as most citizens seem to have done. There has been too much money spent, too many laws passed, too much concern by utilities, businesses and government agencies for this to be hoax. The Y2K problem is real. This is established fact. Now we are down to the question I have heard from nearly every single person I have discussed this issue with: "How bad will it be?"

I dont think I every want to hear those five words together ever again. But I include it here because, after everything else, this is the primary question. Once we have answered this, the mystery surrounding Y2K will disappear, one way or the other. Unfortunately for us, we wont know that answer until Y2K is upon us. So, I will go another resounding "I dont know" on that one. I realize your as sick of hearing that as I am of saying it, but thats the only real answer.

One really interesting facet of this problem has been the media coverage. Our office is still getting calls from major newspapers and television news crews asking what we think of the media coverage of Y2K. A paper in southern California called me about it the other day, and Tim Wilson, our publisher, was on CNN the other night. I think the answer lies somewhere in the fact that they are calling us for a human interest story on the medias coverage of the event instead of contacting programmers, businesses and utilities and finding the hard answers to the tough questions, like what affect will Y2K have on our infrastructure.

I maintain that the news media has mishandled this from the start. They have constantly focused on the circus atmosphere of Y2K, or played up the militia/religious/cultist aspect of the millennium. They never once attempted the in-depth, expose kind of reporting we have come to expect from our media watchdogs. Instead they found it easier to find some loony in Kansas with a bomb shelter and make him out to be the poster child for Y2K preparedness. Then punched out the government "dont worry, be happy" party line at every turn - no questions asked. I suppose they were too busy with the presidential scandals and school shootings to handle Y2K properly. History, however might be a harsher judge than I, depending on what happens January 1, 2000.

More interesting than that is the popular media. Y2K has been embraced by pop culture in a big way. Major network programs have, albeit in a tongue-in-cheek manner, covered Y2K. Shows with such clout as ER, Beverly Hills 90210, Mad About You, and The Simpsons have all engaged Y2K on national television. Even more surprising is that Y2K has been actively embraced by advertising. Now, advertising is big business. And literally dozens and dozens of companies have used Y2K as a tool to sell merchandise. Even heavy hitters, such as Nike have used all the gloom and doom prophecy to their advantage.

Even though an argument can be made that this merely trivializes Y2K, I, personally, find this amusing... mostly because it drives the bankers crazy. The bankers, see, are really and truly scared to death that this will cause bank runs. They are scared because is bank runs start, its over for our fine financial friends. Even with all the cash the Fed has stockpiled, the banks would be hopelessly grid-locked, more people panic, and away we go. The reason this amuses me is that I think it would take more than a humorous insect repellant commercial to jar the American populace out of its lethargy toward Y2K. This of course does little to mollify the uptight suits running the show at banks nation-wide. They are nervous. They are scared. Good for them. Theyve been holding loans, mortgages, and foreclosures over the millions of middle class families for generations. Itll be nice to see them sweat. If we could only find something to really tweak the lawyers...

Which brings us to the real winners of Y2K: the lawyers. Even the government admits there will be problems, there will be failures, and there will subsequently be legal repercussions. Dont think the vultures arent licking their lips in anticipation of the millions and (dare I say) millions of billable man-hours of Y2K litigation. They are. And they most likely will get a belly full. And remember, they could care less if they are suing, are being sued, or any other version of the legal animal. They are still getting paid. That irritates me, but I suppose that what I get for enjoying the discomfiture of the bankers.

One profound effect Y2K has had on me is that it has forever fractured any faith I might have had in our political system, its politicians and beauracracies. I can only say this: if anyone really thinks the American government is looking out for the best interest of the citizens of this nation, theyve got another thing coming. They are each only concerned with the preservation of their own soft, cushy jobs, and thats about it. They are lazy, narcissistic, and above all maniacally egotistical in their view that they are in control of "what is best for the American people" like we were their pet hamsters or something. They have cheated the public, they have mislead the public, and have out-right lied to the American public. Thats from the President of the United States right down to the mayor in your hometown. Once you have come face to face with something like that, you cant go back. I will never be the same again. Now and again I even long for the bliss that might come with ignorance. If I had never tackled this issue I might be able to see our flag waving in the breeze and not be saddened just a little by what that flag has come to represent.

I know it seems like you are the only one that is preparing. Your friends think you're nuts, you family thinks your crazy, and everyone you talk to about it gives you strange looks. So what did you do? If you're like most people, you just simply stoped talking about it. You forged ahead with your personal Y2K preparations and forgot about trying to convince anyone else. Your preparations are most likely a closely guarded secret. I bet I hit pretty close to the mark there, if not in the gold. For this reason, I believe there are far more people preparing than we really think there are. Most are keeping a very low profile. Now, Im not naive enough to think that even most people are preparing. Most people are not. However, I maintain that a larger percentage is concerned about the issue than any poll will show.

This is because the media juggernaut, that seems to dictate public opinion these days, has decided for us that Y2K is not a popular issue. We dont discuss it. We dont share our fears and anxieties over the coming millennium. We just retreat into our little personal groups or families and prepare there. No one wants to be labeled a crazy. It has become a no-win situation to make your preparations public. If you prepare and are right about Y2K, everyone knows to come to your house when they are cold or hungry, which leads to either turning people away, perhaps by force, or eliminating your preparations for the sake of charity. And, of course, if you're wrong, you get to be ridiculed by your community for the rest of your life. There is absolutely no benefit in sharing knowledge about Y2K or your preparations.

I find it sad that, at a time of potential crisis, we have been isolated away from our fellows, doomed to be secretive and aloof, despite the fear and care we all feel. What a poor social commentary that is on our society.

As far as making any bold predictions on exactly what will happen, Im a little torn on the issue. Personally, I would like to think that all the hype is dead on, and the programmers have made all the progress they were supposed to, and the New Year is uneventful. However, on a professional level, Im not so hopeful. Id like to think that I have not wasted my efforts over the past year and a half. So, it would be nice if there was a few major failures to justify my position in all this to all my friends and relatives who jeered me unmercifully for 18 months. I realize thats petty, self-serving, and unsympathetic to those the failures would affect, but Im human. Truth be told, after all the talking, preparation, and conjecture, I want to see action. Maybe just a few small failures...little teeny ones.

That having been said, there are several observations I would like to make about the last 18 months. I have enjoyed the opportunity to work on this magazine. I have worked with great people, and for a terrific boss, who has allowed all the latitude, for better or worse, we could possibly have asked for to complete this two-year project. And a gigantic collective pat on the back to the staff here at Y2K News Magazine, for more often than not, going that extra mile to achieve our goals. Sometimes it seemed like a long 18 months, sometimes it seemed to rush by too fast. Y2K has allowed me contact with hundreds of folks I would not have had contact with otherwise. To all the contributing writers, readers, and advertisers, its been an interesting ride. I enjoyed getting to know you all and wish you the best of luck in the coming months and years.

Heres to Y2K:

See you on the other side.

A.J. Lepley

-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), December 29, 1999

Answers

Tells it like it is.

I believe the demise of the regular tb2x is just more symbolism of the coming debacle that will be the new millenium.

This phenom will not go unnoticed, you know it and I know it!!!

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), December 29, 1999.

Just a few comments. I have a healthy respect for all posting their views on y2k....in consistent, publication-form....like Lepley and others. Granted, I do not often agree with the views of a Lepley, or Yourdon, but there is no getting around the fact that their insights demand consideration.

As far as this piece goes, I was struck by the torpedoes shot at both the political establishment and the news media. After each volley, I was prone to say 'prove it' to Lepley. His viewpoints strike as being a little too conspiratorial at this point in the game and the bitterness tends to circumvent his points.

In a few short weeks, we'll be able to assess his claims, but at this juncture, making such comments are almost aking to a sore loser pointing the finger after a game. (and I am not of the thinking that there will be a winner or loser in all of this, anyway).

Sorry, if I have one problem with the doomer camp mentality, it is this 'ownership' scenario. In other words, we 'tried to tell the truth, but the conspiracy beat us back. We are a noble lot. Woe is us.'

Some of the charges defy imagination.

-- Bad Company (johnny@shootingstar.com), December 29, 1999.

Excellent piece, really captures the essence of the situation. As a summary of the past 18 months, this hits the nail on the head.

-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), December 29, 1999.

BC,

I didn't see any mention of conspiracy in the posting. Lepley simply claims that politicians are largely self serving and lazy. I don't think that's a very controversial claim. Lepley also seems to believe that the news media is more interested in public opinion and advertising than the news. This doesn't seem terribly shocking either. I've seen much harsher criticism of politics and the media on The Tonight Show.

-- hmm (hmm@hmm.hmm), December 29, 1999.

No, there wasn't any mention of conspiracy theories, true...it's just that it resorts to the old belief that there is some combination of massive cover-up/procrastination and laziness on the parts of government and media.

In the end, scary Gary was right 2 years ago--at least in his premise---that in the last days, programmers would be running out of the cities and that the media would capture these images, as well as the words of 'informers' blowing the whistle on the disaster about to befall us.

Alas, that hasn't happened...and knowing human nautre, I think that is quite noteworthy.

-- Bad Company (johnny@shootingstar.com), December 29, 1999.

BC said:

it's just that it resorts to the old belief that there is some combination of massive cover-up/procrastination and laziness on the parts of government and media.

Yes BC, the goverment never lies. They just 'intentionally deceive'.

In the end, scary Gary was right 2 years ago--at least in his premise---that in the last days, programmers would be running out of the cities and that the media would capture these images, as well as the words of 'informers' blowing the whistle on the disaster about to befall us.

Lets see...c4i, DD Lite, Mr. CEO, Gordon, RC, and many others attempted to 'blow the whistle', but they were proclaimed to be hoaxes or FOS.

As for myself, a senior software engineer, I will be 'running out of the city'...tomorrow in fact.

Good luck son. I'll see you after the danger has passed. Hopefully.

-- See ya later alligator (nameless@world.net), December 29, 1999.

It can't have been easy to put fresh energy into The One True Topic, which has wrung out our thinking and feeling apparatus so thoroughly, for so long- but you have. At least, you have managed to express comprehensively the bittersweet gruesome gist of life at our house for the last year and a half or so, and for this we thank you. This has been an exercise in living in the Fog of Unknowing, and that is quite a rude location after a lifetime of naive faux-certainty. We never really became accustomed to this perpetual mental whiteout either, so that only the feedback- the muted sounds of others inhabiting the same zone of questioning- has given us a sense of bearings at all. Even if this amounts to All-Lost-Together, it still has been more real to try to look facts (those hardened criminals) in the face, rather than to pretend that emotions and desires have any causal relation to events. And oh my, it wasn't so easy after all, as you say, to dismiss our emotional reactions: an entire crowd of inner hand-wringers have protested every step of the way. To this moment, they are still standing their subjective emotional ground: shivering, muttering, and exchanging bits of wishful "thinking". So to every person like you, who chased after the ever-elusive data point, and who took the time and trouble to shake facts down, like a terrier with a rat: thank you. Because it made all the difference. We were able to decide how we wanted to prepare only because so many other human beings had the courage to observe that Power Lies. This, after all, isn't a pleasant or soothing insight- not in general and not in the gory details. But enough people have been willing to sit in the ruins of the paradigm we were all born into, and to look out into the desert beyond, and to accept the view. THIS is what for us has been the underlying value of the entire phantasmagorical experience so far. And who knows, maybe one of these days, it will actually be the right moment to gather around the forlorn bits and pieces of Humpty Dumpty, with an interested eye to the reconstruction human society. Because if we don't do it, you know who will.

-- merak (merak@sedona.net), December 29, 1999.

Bc: There is no government conspiracy. On the other hand there is no real government soluton. Just saw the FEMA director on tv saying they were ready and would respond if needed as to any natural disaster. He meant it honestly. however, it IS NOT a natural disaster we face. FEMA willnot fix code by getting the bulldozers in action. There is no connection between reality as it is and the government perceptions. and in this case perceptions do not matter. the code does.

-- Noone (Noone@none.com), December 29, 1999.