http://cnniw.newsreal.com/cgi-bin/NewsService?osform_template=pages/cnniwStory&ID=cnniw&storypath=News/Story_1999_12_29.NRdb@2@13@3@717

"Some Businesses Are Expected To Fail Because Of Y2K Problems" Source: St. Louis Post-Dispatch

"The federal government estimates that as many as 7 percent of American businesses may fail because of computer problems stemming from the transition from 1999 to 2000."

"Some older computers may be set up to read the current year as "99." The machines could react unpredictably when the new year rolls over to "00." Most fixes for the problem involve changing hardware or software so that they use four-digit years."

"Computer experts have been warning companies to plan ahead for potential computer problems for months - in some cases, years. But some smallerbusinesses may have lacked the staff or time to do much before the holiday rush."

"In late October, 79 percent of companies had started but not yet completed year 2000 contingency planning, a survey by Massachusetts- based Cutter Consortium reported. No updates were available, but a Cutter analyst said the information technology consulting firm had received a surge of calls seeking help with planning in recent weeks."

"My gut feeling is that there are a lot of people out there who are still scrambling," said the analyst, Sheila Green."

"Some consultants declined to be interviewed for this story because of concern about potential lawsuits from companies who might have problems regardless of whether the company had prepared."

"Experts differ on whether it's too late to prepare for the rollover."

"It's not too late to do something," said Joe Weiss, who works with small businesses at the Illinois Department of Commerce and Community Affairs."

"But at this point, anything you do is mostly damage control."

"Mike Benzen of Missouri's Office of Information Technology said he and other state officials have campaigned relentlessly to get businesses to prepare for the change for most of the year."

"It's hard to be sympathetic," Benzen said. "If you haven't done anything, you probably ought to just light a candle and crawl in a cave and wait."

Anyone have any figures on "normal" yearly company failure rates? Somehow, I don't think it'll be as high as the predicted 7% Y2K rate. <\b>

-- Deb M. (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), December 29, 1999

Bold OFF.

-- Deb M. (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), December 29, 1999.

Why does this analyst report on her "gut feeling"? Just wonderin, kinda stood out.

-- Hokie (va@va.com), December 29, 1999.

This projection seems to tally roughly with that originally made by Capers Jones in his book "The Year 2000 Software Problem" (1997). In 1998, GartnerGroup projected that 20% of businesses worldwide would fail because of Y2K, but I think Gartner has toned that estimate down quite a bit since then.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), December 29, 1999.