World prepares to beat the bug

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BBC:

Thursday, 30 December, 1999, 22:33 GMT

World prepares to beat the bug

By BBC News Online's Kevin Anderson

Officials around the world are optimistic that the Y2K computer glitch will cause little disruption - but they are preparing for the worst all the same.

The millennium bug results from the computer programming practice of storing the year in dates in two-digit form on older computers to save memory space.

Some computers might interpret '00' as 1900 instead of 2000, causing system failure or unpredictable behaviour.

Some errors have already occurred.

More than 20,000 credit card swipe machines failed in the UK, and in the US state of Maine, computers issuing car registrations misinterpreted the date and sent owners of year 2000 model cars registrations for "horseless carriages".

Prepared for the worst

But those were relatively minor annoyances.

In most industrialised countries, governments and private corporations have expressed confidence that key systems such as telecommunications, air traffic control, power and water are ready for the date change.

However, officials in the US and elsewhere are bracing for much more serious disruptions.

Maritime officials in the US and Denmark have identified ships that are not Y2K-compliant and have barred them from their ports. For the next three weeks, joint Russian and American teams will work to ensure no nuclear or conventional missiles are accidentally launched. Russia has 2,000 nuclear missiles on permanent alert, and the US has almost 2,500. The US allowed more than 350 employees and family members to leave Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, and Australia pulled out all but three of its 16 embassy staff in Moscow. Both countries have warned tourists against travelling to Russia. Federal emergency management centres in the US will be staffed 24 hours a day over the weekend to respond to potential Y2K-related disasters.

Safety shutdown

Some countries admitted their systems will not be ready, or took precautions to head off problems.

Moldova and Morocco will close their banks for a few days as a precaution against the computer bug. Bosnia has warned that outdated medical equipment donated during the 1992-1995 war in that country might fail, and it cannot afford to upgrade or replace the equipment. Nigeria's state-run telephone company cut off phone service to private providers because of they had not proved they were ready for the date rollover. None of Argentina's airlines will fly over New Year's Eve.

Russia at risk

In addition to these voluntary shutdowns, independent analysts believe countries including Russia, China, Indonesia and Italy could suffer disruptions.

Russia started late in addressing the computer problem, and some key services such as air traffic control might not be ready.

A top aviation official said only about half of the country's air traffic control computers were ready in early December.

Russia has expressed defiant confidence in its computer systems, including those that run its nine Soviet-era nuclear power plants and other important functions such as natural gas delivery.

But Turkey, which relies on Russia's Gazprom for natural gas, has expressed concern that the company may not be ready for the date rollover, leaving Turks without gas to heat their homes.

Recession?

Regional supply chain dependencies, such as Turkey's, could very well plunge the world into a brief, intense recession, according to Edward Yardeni, Chief Economist, Global Investment Strategist and Managing Director of Deutsche Bank Securities

Dr Yardeni said there is a 70% chance of a Y2K-related recession lasting through the second quarter of the new year. The percentage is a subjective measure of his concern, he said.

The Russian energy sector and air traffic control systems, and the Indonesian natural gas industry, which supplies much of the gas for Japan and South Korea, are of particular concern, he said.

But he is also concerned that much of the industrialised world is overly optimistic about its efforts to address the problem.

"There is way too much complacency about Europe, the US and Japan," he said.

Policy makers made a very conscious decision to spend a lot of time reassuring the public, he said, adding that "people are about as calm as I could imagine".

That is fine as long as nothing happens, but if Y2K-related computer errors do cause major disruptions, "people will look back and ask, 'why didn't they tell us?'" he said.

Eyes on New Zealand

New Zealand is the canary in the Y2K-coalmine It is the first industrialised country that will experience the date rollover. Breaksdowns there may forewarn of unanticipated problems elsewhere.

That will leave countries with little time to apply any major fixes, but they might at least be able to set their contingency plans in motion.

For now, the world is waiting and watching.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), December 30, 1999

Answers

Thank you ma'am for the post.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 30, 1999.

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