THE Y2K FLOODWATERS ARE SLOWLY RISING

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

We're starting to experience on the 4th of Jan a small but visible flood of computer failures and I think the days to come it will increase and be more widespread. The failures and glitching has been doubling up as each day is passing by and now y2k is starting to claiming casualties. If that isn't a flood then I don't know what is. It wouldn't surprise me if half these failures are with compliant y2k ready computer systems.

-- Brent Nichols (b-nichol@ihug.co.nz), January 04, 2000

Answers

Brent, are you writing regarding NZ or generally?

thanks!

Mike

======================================================================

-- Mike Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 04, 2000.


Brent:

Tell me more. Elaborate please...

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 04, 2000.


Two points:

Doubling *sounds* rhetorically good, but is it accurate? Seems like a fair number of odd little problems was reported yesterday, or alternately might have occurred yesterday but were not noticed until today (certainly a concern). The prediction was always for glitches of some sort, and behold, we're seeing them. This is neither a surprise nor conclusive proof either way that things will just stay at that level or get worse; you're projecting far too quickly here. The 'wait two weeks' level strikes me more and more as being the best benchmark at the present time.

You overstate the case when it comes to lost lives. Sorry, but while accidents have been noted, not one can be conclusively called Y2K-related at this time. Instead, as has already happened, some people are assuming every possible accident *must* be Y2K-related and instantly think spin, angle, cover-up. I refuse to make that leap so readily when the evidence is not available to decide, and I can't be alone on this point. To quote a song I like, "Strangers die everyday." That may sound cold, but it also happens to be true. Train crashes and the like are simply not unique events.

This said, we've already seen direct statements from folks (cf. the one sheriff from Ohio) regarding how a supposedly compliant system failed, so you're right there. This will be intriguing to see how that can play out.

-- Ned Raggett (ned@kuci.org), January 04, 2000.


Dont pay attention to Brent, he did this yesterday.

What we need right now is FACTS. The time for prophetic prose is over.



-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), January 04, 2000.


Although I'm considered one of the more optimistic people on this forum, I predicted between 1 and 2 orders of magnitude more problems than we're seeing. Even a militant optimist like Bradley Sherman is amazed how well things are going.

Brent, I think you are having more than the usual amount of trouble letting go of your fantasies and enjoying our near-miraculous good fortune. Your "flood" requires a magnifying glass to find water droplets. You are fooling nobody but yourself.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 04, 2000.



On Janary 4, 2000

The IRS has its files locked inside the computer, staff cannot access the files. Chemical Weapons Leak at Utmatila Chemical Depot officials think its false alarm. Water failure in San Marco, Texas, (details not yet known.) Irish Telecom accounts balances backdated to 1900. Aalaron Trade Company y2k has accounts glitch. Computer malfunction delays flights in airports in Massachuetts. y2k glitch hits the Spanish Nuclear Reactors. Milan exchange did not open because of computer failure. Many international markets have plunged into the red. Shipping and work order programs in one automotive supplier are starting to break down. Two passenger trains have collided in Norway. Power outage hits 90,000 in Canada. Power is out in Troy Michigan, Northern Indiana New Hampshire airport computer crashed for 3 hours. One very Serious problem hits a nuclear plant in Japan. Two cargo trains collide in Quebec, explosion occured before the collision. y2k glitch delays Mexico 'teens' licenses y2000 info centre hit by y2k bug Chemical Benzine leak in Marcus Hook area near phily (no details yet) Palm springs airport has y2k troubled radar system and may not be salvagable. 6 companys suspended from trading in Turkey Stock Exch after admitting y2k problems. Y2k Computer problem hits Mali railway monitoring system. Longview Texas water/city wide sewrage problem, swerage starts to back up in toilets Power out in neighbourhood in West Austin, Texas Versacheck Pro checkwriting software thinks 2000 is earlier than 1999. Daily market fluctuations Major Hospital in Howell Co Missouri denies y2k gitches in its computers Amtrack's computers losing track of trains symbols, must be manually re-inserted into prg. AFT's computers not able to enter new licensed gun dealers. Dow industrial average dropped 359.58, 3.2 percent to close at 10,997.93 4th biggest drop. Explosion in tower caused a 5 min Power failure blackout hits 90,000 in New York Conway Couple recieve $27,705 water bill, human error not y2k related Y2k glitch shuts down computer controlling jail locks in Senecca county jail, Ohio. Outage from voltage line 40m away caused a 21 min power outage in Celtic's game stadium Indiana has y2k problems with driver's licenses registration Possible y2k-related problems at two U.S Refineries may force shutdowns, gas prices going up.

=== Do we suddenly have this many things going wrong with the computers all in one day? When you start getting 200 or more reports in a day and already its nearing 100 a day then you will know something isn't right, half the day hasn't gone and look at what's been happening already. You can actually sense that something isn't right that we could be in for a rough ride as these failures are accelerating more and more each day, more important is to note how many people are being affected by y2k, this is not your normal one in a while failure in the infrastructure that is happening to a few, its happening to thousands.

-- Brent Nichols (b-nichol@ihug.co.nz), January 04, 2000.


Thats pitiful Brent. Grouping all of that together just shows you how you are being suckered into the "it must be y2k" camp.

At the very least, why did you lump the market moves today to y2k ?

Do you even read why the market moves when it does ?

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), January 04, 2000.


Various people keep calling for getting the facts. Where are we supposed to get these facts. Getting the facts has been the problem all along. There are very few facts available concerning Y2K.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), January 04, 2000.

Brent, I thought you did a nice job grouping incidents. There are more negative reports. Remember 01/01, they were all positive, and we had to dig like hell just to find out about the NZ wind/water issue, and again had to work like hell to ascertain if maybe familyman really did work for IBM NJ in distribution... Now I don't even have time to read all the negative articles. There are unequivicably more negative reports each day. You'd have to be blind to deny this.

Now, we don't know if there are more negative "events" daily, but we do know there are more negative "reports" daily in the press.

Astounding.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 04, 2000.


Hokie, are you for real ?.

Remember how suddenly people started noticing what seemed to be an unusual number of refinery explosions and mishaps at things like grain elevators and chemical plants. Alot of people were doing the "could it be y2k ?" thing. We had no proof it was or wasnt, but people were ganging them together as if y2k somehow hit them early. Now we are seeing faults and some are accepting it all as Y2k related.

Do we really want to go back to this, are we going to think that every power outtage, every plant explosion, every shipping error is y2k?.



-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), January 04, 2000.



Well, it's estimated there are 25 million businesses in the US alone. Assume that each of them experienced one (1) genuine y2k bug on the average. That's 25 million bugs. What an astronomical number! Now here we have at most 25 bugs that are probably y2k bugs. One in a million that are newsworthy, if you dig hard enough.

So this is the tip of the iceberg, right? Below the surface, we have some productivity loss fixing the rest. How much of a loss? As great as, say, the average of a cumulative billion coffee breaks a day in the US (conservative estimate)?

Nobody said there would be NO problems, but a sense of perspective seems to be a gift not bestowed on everyone.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 04, 2000.


Brent, about half this stuff seems to lack any direct confirmed connection to Y2K. You're claiming it is, but this is all too typical from you now: all failure = Y2K. Sorry, no dice. I can't count the various glitches and seize-ups I've dealt with my own major work database over the years as a matter of course. They're looked at, fixed, and moved on. Some fixes for *confirmed* Y2K problems are obviously taking longer than others -- we've seen reports and I am concerned (and I really want to hear about that 911 question, frankly). Others, however, are being handled in minutes.

I'm not going to bother with you anymore at this point -- you're locked into an interpretation of events with all the graceless conviction of some of the more strident 'nothing to worry about' types around here, and while you're not as immediately snotty, you are clearly boring and offer nothing to the discussion.

-- Ned Raggett (ned@kuci.org), January 04, 2000.


Hey Flint- why can't you just say that you don't know how many failures EXACTLY are occuring in these past few days?? I mean, have you accepted the fact that the media will LIE to us about what happens around the world.

Granted, I am VERY happy that rollover went so well. But it is only the embedded's that should strike at that time. Let us see what else crops up in the coming weeks before we clamor that all is clear. I am seeing several post's concerning brownouts in California, Upstate NY, and Ohio?...that is something new for this decade at least. Sounds like those SCADA systems are performing as expected by Rick Cowles and crew.

-- Brent James Bushardt (brentj@webt.com), January 04, 2000.


Brent:

My reading is that given the current atmosphere, the media are far more likely to overreport rather than underreport any possible y2k- related failures. The high-intensity media focus on possible problems has not dimmed significantly yet, althought the current paucity of anything resembling a smoking gun suggests this situation won't last, and the media will soon return to normal programming.

So while I don't believe the media are lying per se, they are most likely looking for a return on their investment in resources to cover possible screwups, leading to an atypical emphasis on problems. Enjoy it while it lasts.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 04, 2000.


Brent, It does appear that you are attributing too many things to Y2K. Certainly some items in your list are related, some may be, and some are probably not. Lets just have a look and see:

The IRS has its files locked inside the computer,staff cannot access the files. Y2K

Chemical Weapons Leak at Utmatila Chemical Depot officials think its false alarm. If its a false alarm, the probably Y2K, but if the leak is genuine, then the dtection system has performed exactly as it was designed to and would not be Y2K.

Water failure in San Marco, Texas, (details not yet known.) Unknown, so why assign this as Y2K?

Irish Telecom accounts balances backdated to 1900. Y2K

Aalaron Trade Company y2k has accounts glitch. Y2K

Computer malfunction delays flights in airports in Massachuetts. Possible Y2K

y2k glitch hits the Spanish Nuclear Reactors. Y2K

Milan exchange did not open because of computer failure. Y2K

Many international markets have plunged into the red. No evidence of this being related to Y2K

Shipping and work order programs in one automotive supplier are starting to break down. Y2K

Two passenger trains have collided in Norway. No evidence of Y2K

Power outage hits 90,000 in Canada. Not Y2K

Power is out in Troy Michigan, Not Y2K

Northern Indiana New Hampshire airport computer crashed for 3 hours. Not believed to be Y2K

One very Serious problem hits a nuclear plant in Japan. Can you provide a link for this? The only nuke issue from Japan that I am aware of was minor, not serious.

Two cargo trains collide in Quebec, explosion occured before the collision. Not believed to be Y2K

y2k glitch delays Mexico 'teens' licenses Y2K

y2000 info centre hit by y2k bug Y2K

Chemical Benzine leak in Marcus Hook area near phily (no details yet) Cause unknown

Palm springs airport has y2k troubled radar system and may not be salvagable. Y2K

6 companys suspended from trading in Turkey Stock Exch after admitting y2k problems. Y2K, But their problems were fixed or worked around, and they trading again one hour later.

Y2k Computer problem hits Mali railway monitoring system. Y2K

Longview Texas water/city wide sewrage problem, swerage starts to back up in toilets More info please. I haven't seen this one elsewhere.

Power out in neighbourhood in West Austin, Not Y2K

Texas Versacheck Pro checkwriting software thinks 2000 is earlier than 1999. Y2K

Daily market fluctuations This is normal

Major Hospital in Howell Co Missouri denies y2k gitches in its computers So?

Amtrack's computers losing track of trains symbols, must be manually re-inserted into prg. Possibly Y2K

AFT's computers not able to enter new licensed gun dealers. Y2K

Dow industrial average dropped 359.58, 3.2 percent to close at 10,997.93 4th biggest drop. So bigger drops have been recorded. therefore no Y2K issue here.

Explosion in tower caused a 5 min Power failure blackout hits 90,000 in New York Not Y2K, Flashovers like this happen frequently, even here in New Zealand where we use lower voltages for transmission.

Conway Couple recieve $27,705 water bill, human error not y2k related Not Y2K

Y2k glitch shuts down computer controlling jail locks in Senecca county jail, Ohio. Y2K

Outage from voltage line 40m away caused a 21 min power outage in Celtic's game stadium Not Y2k

Indiana has y2k problems with driver's licenses registration Y2K

Possible y2k-related problems at two U.S Refineries may force shutdowns, Possible Y2K

gas prices going up. Not Y2K, This is a continuation of a trend that started months ago.

So, out of 36 items, there are 15 confirmed Y2K issues, 14 Probably not or definitely not Y2K, and 7 Unknown.

This certainly doesn't look like a "Flood" of Y2K issues to me.

However there are also a number of confirmed Y2K faults not mentioned here, as well as a number of claimed Y2K faults which have already been proved to be not related. No one has ever said that ther wouldn't be any Y2K failures, but lets keep things in perspective and report known or confirmed glitches as such. Where there is a failure that may be Y2K related, but not really known, then please give reasons or examples of why or how it may be a Y2K fault.

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), January 04, 2000.



Excellent line-item analysis! Thanks.

But, what the Hell--give him all 36 bugs, just for the sake of an argument.

Don't you wish we lived in a world where 36 computer bugs in 4 days, in the entire world, constituted a "flood?"

I wish I worked for a _company_ with only 9 glitches a day. We'd finish all our development work for the year by March, and head for the Bahamas.

Craig

-- Craig Kenneth Bryant (ckbryant@mindspring.com), January 04, 2000.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ