6 January 2000

Computer Weekly, Daily News

Y2K - Experts issue new warnings

With most UK businesses reporting a trouble free Y2K rollover, experts have denied accusations that the Y2K problem was over-hyped. And they have issued new warnings about the bug.

Karl Feilder, head of bug-busting company Greenwich Mean Time said: "It's a case of the media gets it wrong and computer experts get it right. We've all been saying that less than 10 per cent of Y2K problems were going to occur on 31 December. In any case when the Melissa virus hit, it took us nearly a week to find out about it."

"The peak of Y2K problems will be in April, just after the end of the first quarter, when people realise their spreadsheets, accounts and billing systems have gone wrong," said Feilder. "We've still only checked 10 per cent of the world's PCs for Y2K compliance," he added.

Feilder warned that most of the "business as usual" information on Y2K had so far come from governments "with a vested social and political interest in saying there's been no Y2K problem".

Gartner research director Andy Kyte warned that the absence of problems during the rollover could lead to complacency.

Kyte said Y2K problems could happen throughout the year but one of the main pressure points could be today (4 January). He warned that it is middle sized businesses - big enough to rely on IT but too small to have an IT department - that could be hit hardest. Such businesses tend to rely heavily on IT suppliers for advice, he said.

Kyte added "Those who think Y2K never existed should ask themselves why global corporations were prepared to spend tens of millions of dollars. Was it just because some IT consultant in a bright tie and braces said Y2K will hurt you?"

British business spent an estimated #3bn on combating Y2K, with central government spending #400m and the NHS more than #300m.

[ENDS]

-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), January 06, 2000

Answers

I think this article sums up quite well the argument that Y2K is more like termites than a bomb. I would venture to say that most people on this forum who are labeled "doomers" are done so mistakenly. The true "doomers" are those who have said that all utilities would fail, thousands would die, and TEOTWAKI in its most literal sense would occur. Those people seem to be few in number, but nonetheless, most of us who have prepared for possible disruptions by storing food, water, fuel, etc., have never shared those "doomer" opinions. My opinion has always been along the lines of the above article posted by John Whitley. It still remains to be seen how much the termites will eat away, but it's too soon to make a judgement about the effects of Y2K.

-EricE

-- EricE (ready@for.anything), January 06, 2000.

I am sick of this small business crap going on and on about these guys are going to be in trouble and cause chain reactions to everybody else.

From another post, for example, we have the following said:

During the conference, a representative of the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) said there are 24 million small businesses in this country, with "small business" being defined as any company with 500 employees or less. When we reach January 2000, according to the SBA, approximately 8 million of these small businesses will be fully ready for Y2K, 8 million will have done enough repair work to muddle through, and 8 million will have done nothing to address the problem and will be at risk of failure.

Ok lets pick this appart rather than swallow it whole blindly and choke on it again later. I submit the following:

The 8m that will be ready probably have between 20-500 employees and therefore use a serious number of IT systems such that failure would cause a sever problem which is why they have prepared.

The 8m that will muddle through probably have between 3-20 employees and again will be ok since they probably can resort to manual payrolls etc. and "muddle through" as was suggested.

The 8m that did nothing probably have between 1-2 employees and are home based businesses (they are included in these stats) that basically have a PC with the usual suite of e-mail etc. and can fix all that quickly if it fails, i.e. they will obviously be in FOF mode (easily running on manual mode until failuers are fixed), but I am willing to bet that not one of those "businesses" will go bankrupt because of y2k because the just don't have "mission critical" applications that affect hundreads or thousands of customers. Those that do have failuers (because not all 8m will) will just have a bit of trouble putting out reports, letters and the like for a few days till they fix the PC, software etc. or just buy another one and get on with life.

So lets not get all fired up about these "small businesses" causing massive unemployement etc.

Time for the doomers to wake up a bit and realize, it will not be death by a thousand knives, but sort of like being eaten alive by a thousand ducks. It sure going to feel bad while they try, but it just aint going to happen in the end.

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), January 06, 2000.

Wow, talk about hypocrisy!!

"We've still only checked 10 per cent of the world's PCs for Y2K compliance," he added.

Feilder warned that most of the "business as usual" information on Y2K had so far come from governments "with a vested social and political interest in saying there's been no Y2K problem".

So, the fact that his company sells Year 2000 Checking software for PC's does NOT give him a vested interest in saying there still IS a Y2K problem? Pot, meet the kettle!

No that it has any relevance to Year 2000 problems, but since he brought it up:

"In any case when the Melissa virus hit, it took us nearly a week to find out about it."

This is complete bullshit! It was first posted to a newsgroup on a Friday morning. By the following Monday, updated DAT's were available from most of the anti-virus companies, and by Thursday, the perpetrator had been tracked and arrested! By the time Feilder and company found out about it ("it took us nearly a week"), it was all over. Yeah, I would trust my PC to these guys! Maybe he is having the same problem now -- he blinked at midnight and missed Y2K!

-- My Full Name (My@email.address), January 06, 2000.