For me, the Y2K debate is over. My real argument was with the extreme pessimists, the handful of people who predicted a social and economic meltdown. Our society may eventually collapse but the cause will not be the Y2K bug.

Without doubt, the debate will continue. The fact this debate continues on the Internet speaks volumes. The power is on. The phones work. The banks are open and creditors await payments. Even oil futures are dropping.

There will be glitches in the supply chain, but it is extremely difficult to weave these problems into anything worse than a recession. If we do experience worse, it will be due to problems other than Y2K glitches. Our underlying economic (and social) problems might make for an interesting conversation, but not on this forum at least not for me.

Initially, I had no plans to stay this long but Im just too damn stubborn. Leaving before rollover felt like forfeiting the debate to the extreme pessimists. During the past year, Time Bomb 2000 has not been the home field for those who were optimistic about Y2K. A few notables stayed until the bitter end like Flint and Ted Hoffman. I owe a debt of gratitude to you both.

During the past few months, some of the thoughtful pessimists have departed. I miss the presence of Brian McLaughlin, Don Florence and Dave Walden. These moderate voices made the debate far more interesting and all three conducted themselves as gentleman.

I always felt the thoughtful pessimists represented the best of this forum. Many people here were decent and reasonable, like the charming Helen Statten and Bingo1. I also traded email with genuinely nice people on both ends of the spectrum like Mike Taylor and Jonathon Latimer.

The biggest surprise of the rollover was not the lack of technical problems. I was stunned (and humbled) to find King of Spain reasonable and a gracious. To all those who choose to beat your swords into plowshares, I wish you well.

During the debate I managed to bump heads with participants on both sides. Say what you will about CPR (and I have), he consistently dug up massive amounts of data about Y2K. I learned a fair amount about Y2K from my early days at BFI and Debunker, courtesy of people like Stephen Poole. Best wishes to those regulars in the early days like CD, Deano, Wolverine, Cherri, Maria, Anita, Johnny Canuck and many more. (Apologies to those I missed.)

The serious pessimists dislike of me is well documented. For me, the Y2K debate was always a search for information. There were no sacred cows. My personal feelings about an individual were always secondary to the debate. While this attitude (and a smart-ass writing style) made few friends, I tried to practice intellectual integrity. I subjected positive and negative data to the same standards. I scrutinized everyone, even Ed Yourdon and I challenged what I thought were poor arguments.

Some people feel I didnt have the right to do this. I felt I had an obligation. In my opinion, Y2K was far too important for intellectual compromising. I realize my style bothered some people and I apologize. I will stand behind the substance of what I wrote. Let time, and unbiased opinion, be the judge.

For all those who have trembled in anticipation for this moment this is my last post.

Warm regards,

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 09, 2000

Answers

Best wishes Ken. =)

-- Dee (T1Colt556@aol.com), January 09, 2000.

bye

-- karen leblanc (kgl54@aol.com), January 09, 2000.

Ken,

Best wishes and God Bless - be well.

-- Deb M. (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), January 09, 2000.

Bye

-- Danny (dcox@ix.netcom.com), January 09, 2000.

Ken,

Thanks for your thoughtful posts. I always wanted you to be right but it always seemed to me like anything was possible. I think even many pollies were surprised by what an anticlimax it has been (some here would add "so far"). Best wishes.

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), January 09, 2000.

Good luck in everything you do.

Peace,

Don

-- Shimoda (enlighten@me.com), January 09, 2000.

Take care and good luck, Ken. Anyone here who doesn't regret your leaving, well and truly doesn't "get it". A long, strange trip with as happy an ending as anyone could wish for. Thanks for the steady voice of sanity; we all needed it whether we knew it or not.

And it was a pleasure to meet you as well.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 09, 2000.

I'll believe you're leaving when I see it. After a couple of weeks without your overbearing know-it-all attitude surfacing here, I'll be ready to celebrate.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), January 09, 2000.

Ken

What a drag, you were not boring at least. Got to say that I admire someone that is not afraid to voice their opinions against the grain.

Y2K was over for me once the fireworks were above the Kremlin. It was time to refocus attention to other aspects of life. Hopefully the forum evolves into something more relevent also. It is sad to think that all the great input from yourself and others is going to disperse. I often thought that a companion forum on economic issues would be a nice start. There are many indications that we haven't seen the effects of Y2K economicly and apart from Y2K there are problems on the horizon.

Hopefully you have seen in your 10 months here that Y2K isn't the only thing that brought us all together on this forum, more to the point it was the sharing in understanding a problem that could have effected folks in a negative way. There are allot of good folk on the form and more often than not they mean well. I have come to thing of TB2000 as an online community. We have become more than our original parts.

Well best of luck on your future efforts. No doubt that book will get written eh? Send me a draft sometime and I will do the spell checking eh!

HeATEd ReGArdS!!!!!

-- Brian (imager@home.com), January 09, 2000.

Ken, don't leave now, we are in the "Top of the First Inning" well maybe this would be a GOOD time to leave depending on your position regarding y2k!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 09, 2000.

Response to decker....

For me, the Y2K debate is over.

(Of course it is , dear.)

My real argument was with the extreme pessimists, the handful of people who predicted a social and economic meltdown. Our society may eventually collapse but the cause will not be the Y2K bug.

( And of course, being only nine days into this, you know that as FACT, do you? And being that there have been no catastrophic failures, you exrapolate that into nothing serious can still happen, don't you, dear?)

Without doubt, the debate will continue. The fact this debate continues on the Internet speaks volumes. The power is on. The phones work. The banks are open and creditors await payments. Even oil futures are dropping.

( And all of that is 100% irrelevant. We are nine days into this year. The potential problems associated with continuing failures and data corruption have barely had their respective surfaces scratched.)

There will be glitches in the supply chain, but it is extremely difficult to weave these problems into anything worse than a recession.

( Only not dificult for a pollyanna.)

If we do experience worse, it will be due to problems other than Y2K glitches.

( of course, they will, dear. This will fit nicely into your "Y2k can do no harm, it MUST be something else" paradigm.)

For all those who have trembled in anticipation for this moment this is my last post.

(Good riddance.)

Warm regards,

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 09, 2000

======================

Oh, did I forget to say "Good Riddance"?

Paul Milne

Clinton: "I did not have sex with that woman, Miss Lewinsky"

bks: "It was not overt lying. It was overgeneralization for rhetorical purposes."

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), January 09, 2000.

Decker, GOOD LUCK ya ornery old bastard,will miss the guy we loved to hate, No seriously always enjoyed the posts---Thanks H.

-- H fats Kissinger (draconion solutions@CFR.org), January 09, 2000.

This is a wise and healing decision on your part. Since you pride yourself on your consistency, I hope you will be able to stay away as you promise. Good luck on your life in Maryland.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 09, 2000.

Getting a little too hot for you cockroach kenny? Refusing to answer questions about your supposed military service(that you probably made up entirely)???? Good riddance and be gone!!! Here's a little tip: Town managers have the same kind of job security as hospital administrators, and high school football coaches. If you talk to the people in your little town like you have talked to people at this forum, you'll be unemployed again soon. Let's see, you started there August 30, 1999 - if you are there next month, that will probably be a record for you. Now don't forget: you promised that this was your LAST post.

-- catfish joe (joe6pack@bottomdweller.net), January 09, 2000.

Even in leaving, Ken manages to clearly delineate the adults from the babies. Those able to THINK couldn't ask for a clearer demonstration of the benefits Ken brought.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 09, 2000.

Ken, Thanks for being one of the few who have provided a necessary counterweight these past months.I may not have agreed with you but you always made me pause for thought.

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), January 09, 2000.

"Our society may eventually collapse but the cause will not be the Y2K bug."

Unless you are a time traveler, there is NO WAY you could know that for certain. The Y2K bug is certainly capable of it and you know it, so that's why you're getting out while the getting is good, before you have to eat those words. Right Ken? :-)

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), January 09, 2000.

Ken,

Your departure causes me regret. I want to thank you for some fine chatroom discussions, sharing your perspectives on the board, agreements, disagreements, composure under heat, the challenges met, and the challenges offered.

Familiarity with some of your capabilities, always skilled and surely well-tested, causes me to think you scarcely need a wish of luck for the future or flush of successes ahead.

I offer my best wishes that the persistence of intellectual pursuits continues a life of drama, of intensity, and of great reward.

You will be missed.

-- (resolved@this.point), January 09, 2000.

I'd be willing to bet that the above post "resolved@this.point" is really Kenny saying goodbye to himself. What a laugh!!!!!

-- LongTimeLurker (LongTimeLurker@lurk.com), January 09, 2000.

LTL

Resolved is a regular on the forum and a friend in the chat room. She is real, just wanted to straighten that out.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), January 09, 2000.

Well Ken,

Happy trails to you. And all the best in your future life.

Notch that arrogance down a tad and you just might be viewed as more "human." Or not. Your choice. Hope you learned some lessons from Y2K. Developing a compassionate heart would be a good first start.

And why do I think you'll still lurk?

;-D

Fare thee well.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 09, 2000.

Thanks so much for your posts, Ken

I guess if the adults are leaving the forum, it's time for the rest of us to pull out. It sure will lose some of its attractiveness without you.

-- walt (walt@lcs.k12.ne.us), January 09, 2000.

Bold off. Sorry

-- walt (walt@lcs.k12.ne.us), January 09, 2000.

Dear Sir, I still remember the first post of yours that I personally read. It was regarding the feasibility of defending a fixed position. It was a thoughtful and well written piece. I am personally thrilled that so far Y2K is a seeming fizzle, because while disruptions and chaos could be an adventure for a single person, they are anathema to a mother of small children. Many of us posted in the heat of the moment, and I hope you will ignore the snide and snotty remarks tagged on to your farewell thread. My opinion is that you are as entitled to respect as the majority of forum posters. We all have our shares in the mud pies, and it is certainly not just to single you out.

I wish you... fare - well...

-- Mumsie (shezdremn@aol.com), January 09, 2000.

Bye Ken!

Steve Heller! Where have you been hiding?

I have always liked you Steve, and defended you from your detractors. However, your parting shot to Ken shows no class and has lowered you several points in my esteem.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), January 09, 2000.

Hey Ken,

Take care and maybe consider using a digital camera with the big game... I want my son to see a Bull Elephant in it's native environment some day.

All the best to you for a happy, healthy future. Feel free to drop me an email, especially if you can give me a heads up on any economic danger ahead :-)

Mike

==================================================================

-- Mike Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 09, 2000.

I salute.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 09, 2000.

Ken--Come back when the mainframe show starts.

-- Blew5M (gaf@mindspring.com), January 09, 2000.

Good-bye Mr. Decker and good luck to you. Pay no attention to those who don't have the class to wish you a fond farewell. Those like Ms.Squire really shouldn't talk about arrogance. She is the queen and Heller is the king of arrogance. Milne is a pshychopathic non-entity.

-- (Lurkin@gain.com), January 09, 2000.

Mr. Decker;

Sorry to see you go right now; it seemed we were trying to get something straightened out. Oh well, I guess if we don't play your way that you just pick up your toys and leave.

More power to you.

-- Beached Whale (beached_whale@hotmail.com), January 09, 2000.

Ken:

I know that you have taken a great deal of heat from a lot of us, which may or may not have been deserved at the time. At the time, it sure seemed so. But there is no sense in dredging up stuff that happened in the last century.

I have to agree with your basic assessment on Y2K: Whatever problems may have occurred, are occurring, or will occur, will probably be managed just fine, as this past week has so well demonstrated. The simultaneous/interrelated/overwhelming effects that so many worried about are certainly a "no show", though personally I will feel a lot better after another couple of weeks pass harmlessly. Of course, I don't think the issue was ever so much "will happen" or "won't happen" -- it was whether one should personally prepare in case it "did happen". That put Y2K into an entirely different realm than that of an academic debate, and hence the issue carried with it a great deal of emotional baggage for many.

Take care and best wishes,

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), January 09, 2000.

I have always liked you Steve, and defended you from your detractors. However, your parting shot to Ken shows no class and has lowered you several points in my esteem.

I take it you have never been the object of Ken's insults and ridicule. If you had, you would be as happy to see him go as I am (if he sticks to his promise).

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), January 09, 2000.

Mr. Decker, While we have shared somewhat different opinions in regards to Y2K, I am sure that we are both delighted at what the outcome has produced (so far).

Here is wishing you the best in your future endeavours.

Ms. Cannot-Say

-- (cannot-say@this.time), January 09, 2000.

Let me slip in at the end to wish you and your family well through the changes:)

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 09, 2000.

Ken,

Actually I still sometimes "lurk" here and even post now and then, despite my stated intention some months ago not to do so! Consistency is not my strong suit. :)

You and I, like Dr. Yardeni, have tended to focus on the economic threats of Y2K. Before rollover, I did have some *serious* lingering concerns about infrastructure threats as well, based in part on reported rumblings out of TAVA, etc.; but it's obvious now that various remediation firms working on embedded systems tremendously exaggerated Y2K problems in those systems. Those folks on this and other fora who said that the Y2K embedded system threat was being blown out of all proportion were absolutely correct from the beginning. I'd have worried much less if I had listened to them!

It's hard to know how many lingering, serious problems are out there in the business software systems (mainframe and PC networks). None of this is my field anyway; and though I've tried to do a lot of research on Y2K, it doesn't seem to have helped! FWIW, my guess now tallies with your assessment: at most, remaining Y2K problems have the potential to trigger a recession later this year. (So far, I don't see any such "trigger effect" in action, but it's still too early to make a clear call, in my opinion.) We are vulnerable because of various underlying economic factors anyway, as you know. Also, I'd agree that anything worse than a moderate recession would be the result of something other than Y2K. But again, these are guesses on my part.

I do think that most of the posters on this forum, whatever their position ("polly," "doomer," or middle-of-the-roader), have been sincere in their opinions. Many have been sincerely wrong, of course, but they were calling the situation as they saw it. The only posters that sometimes annoyed me were those who engaged in personal attacks on others through anonymous posts.

Your posts have been articulate and straightforward; and though I've sometimes disagreed with some of your points, I've always found your posts informative.

Good luck to you in your new career as a town manager.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), January 09, 2000.

Ken, add me to the list of those who will miss your well-thought out and cogent writings. I found myself nodding my head as I read your posts. I admire your ability to "cut to the chase" and concisely state an opinion. You will be missed.

Dan (a.k.a Dan the Power Man)

-- Dan (dgman19938@aol.com), January 09, 2000.

Mr. Decker;

In truth, we crossed swords (or words) a few times. Also in truth, I STILL read everything you originated, and many of your responses. We did and do not agree with where we are or are going.

Piffle!!

The AGREEMENT is NOT the thing, the DISCUSSION is the point. You bring facts and opinions to the table, as do I and then we see which of us has the preponderance.

At this time we are BOTH happier with the outcome than I suspect either of us truly expected. I want to thank you for challenging me and my assumptions as well and as strongly as you did. It was through discussions with you and Flint, and one or two others that I was able to evaluate my own positions. We never HAVE agreed, but it HAS been fun.

Chuck

SYSOP # 3

Anonymous # 3

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 10, 2000.

All the best to you, Mr. Decker.

-- Tricia the Canuck (jayles@telusplanet.net), January 10, 2000.

Ken,

First, I have to say how much I appreciate and admire your ability to keep your civility in the face of onslaughts from all directions. The forum needed rational voices like yours from the "other side". Thanks for providing one.

But I have to tell you this: One of the moments on the forum that kind of stayed with me is when you said my posts to you had a "bitchy" tone. Well, I took a hard look and discovered that you were right! Since then, I've always kept that in mind and tried to hold back any anger I might have so that it wouldn't show up in my posts -- to anyone. Of course, I don't always succeed, but I try harder than I used to.

So, Ken, you may not have affected my Y2K positions much, but because of what you said that day, I changed in a bigger way than you knew. And I thank you for that.

Take care of yourself, Ken.

-- eve (123@4567.com), January 10, 2000.

Ken,

I too found your posts of great value. Though your writing style was somewhat caustic, I will admit that many of your posts influenced my thinking as to the likely outcomes from Y2K. For that I wish to say thank you. As one of the few people here who did not fly into an immediate rage at the mention of your name, it was perhaps easier for me to consider the ideas behind the post, rather than have a knee- jerk reaction to the name posted at the end of same. This place will not be the same without you, I will leave to the reader to decide whether or not that is a good thing. (Chuckle) As for me, Ill miss your thoughts, youre a smart guy.

Now, having said that, I feel as though I must add that it is surprising that you see fit to leave unanswered questions about your military service in your wake. You called for straight talk from Ed, when in the same thread you were called upon for straight talk your response was lackluster, to say the least. As one who saw you as a man who placed a high value on integrity, his has left me feeling quite disappointed.

Good luck in your future endeavors Ken,

-- Uncle Deedah (unkeed@yahoo.com), January 10, 2000.

Mr. Ken Decker- All the best, you have been an influence as much as anyone to me over the past 18 months-2 years (whatever, seems like I've been here too long) I've enjoyed your unique perspective on things. Even though I prepped to the gills, I always wanted to see your take on things. The jury is still out as to whether I'll need those preps anytime soon, but you were right, I sure didn't need 'em right away-Well...maybe the scotch :) Take care Ken.

on de rock

-- Walter (on de rock@northrock.bm), January 10, 2000.

See ya Ken.

Best wishes.

Deano

-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), January 10, 2000.

Red,

Good luck and keep in touch.

Stan

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), January 10, 2000.

Have a nice life.

-- Wilferd (WilferdW@aol.com), January 10, 2000.

Good luck, Ken, your posts were always interesting.

-- Mr. Pinochle (pinochledd@aol.com), January 10, 2000.

So Steve "we'll see a spike of errors on Jan 1, and I'm never wrong" Heller decides to crawl out from under his rock to take a few cheap shots at Decker, huh?

Why am I not astonished?

-- heller (is@STILL.anidiot), January 10, 2000.

So Steve "we'll see a spike of errors on Jan 1, and I'm never wrong" Heller decides to crawl out from under his rock to take a few cheap shots at Decker, huh?

Where did I say I was "never wrong"? Provide a citation, or shut up.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), January 11, 2000.

Spooky prediction: we'll hear from Ken again soon. No one leaves this group for keeps; It's just too fascinating.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 11, 2000.

There should be a TB2000 Reunion on 1/1/2001. Time and perspective, that sort of thing...

-- Bemused (and_amazed@you.people), January 11, 2000.

Better late than never...

I've thoroughly enjoyed your contributions to TB2000, Ken. In fact, I can't imagine what this place may have been like without you. But I'll try.

My guess is I would have weighed in more heavily than I did, drawing some of the fire which found its way to you. My skin is many times thinner than yours. It wouldn't have been pretty.

You managed to antagonize many a regular poster (Master of the obvious I am). In the process we learned of their darker sides. This was very helpful in that it allowed those not blinded by precognitive visions of destruction set upon us through the effects of Y2K, to better judge the information posted here.

You & Flint provided a counterweight to the extremists. Thank you.

All the Best,

-- Bingo1 (howe9@shentel.net), January 11, 2000.