As far as the power industry goes, is this list accurate and if so, is it really the "norm"?

Subject: Fw: Y2k "Glitches" Date: Sun, 9 Jan 2000 09:02:34 -0800 From: "Jonathan Saturen"

So far this week there have been 26 power outages across the country; 11 nuclear plants taken off-line--4 of them in the last 3 days; 4 refineries either shut down or working at a reduced capacity, already affecting 3% of our oil.

Nigeria lost 20% of their oil producing capacity-and they supply 6% of the World's oil. Singapore lost about 20% of theirs also--they supply Japan.

There were 3 head-on train crashes in Europe, all within 200 feet of a track switch.

The FAA has had the most problems, already affecting 1/3 of the country's airports.

There were 3 chemical plants fires in the US and 1 refinery fire.

There were 3 sewage treatment plants that had spills in L.A., Texas, and Washington.

Already reports of delays in Social Security and Medicare payments. That could potentially affect 44 million Americans.

2 Saturn plants had to close indefinitely due to "inventory and production glitches".

According to Gartner Group, who has been tracking Y2K progress for about 3 years, by the end of NEXT week we MAY see 10% of the problems......90% to go! ======================================

-- Anonymous, January 10, 2000

Answers

Meg, Of course I would, I saw it at TB2000 as well. I am confident that no nukes are down due to y2k, its either refueling or other problems. I have seen the causes of the plants coming down on 12/30 and 12/31, and they were not Y2K (I posted the reasons on another thread at TB2000). I have heard of zero power plants being down due to Y2K inside the industry, if anyone knows of a problem please report.

The train wrecks I started researching, and found no Y2K causes in the Norway incident, haven't checked the Spain incident yet.

I really don't have the energy or time to chase Y2K fairy tales anymore....if a real Y2K disaster occurs, I am confident it couldn't be hidden for very long. This is just my opinion, just one in a virtual city of millions...;)

Regards,

-- Anonymous, January 10, 2000

FactFinder,

Would you be willing to share your research on the Norway incident?

-- Anonymous, January 11, 2000

*If* the Norway crash was Y2k related it was either: the only one to make major news, or one of only an incident or two. Anyway, considering the number of trains operating every hour of the day, worldwide, the Norway crash is statistically insignificant. Crashes like that have happened almost every year here in the US, without Y2k. Of course it matters a lot to the people who were devasted by it, but so does any public transportation accident.

The real problem is that there *are no* significant real problems. Many of us had a large part of ourselves heavily invested in a bad Y2k scenario. It's turning out the way FactFinder had boldly stated, many times. Like it or not, that's what we have to learn to deal with.

Whether you are talking about nukes shutting down or the FAA shutting down, these are things that happened on a regular basis for the last "X" number of years and reveal little more than routine problems in a complex system. In past years, I have had engine control modules fail in a car or two. I expect to have it happen again. I don't expect to be blaming it on Y2k. And even if I *could* blame it on Y2k it would be statistically insignificant. That's the hand we were dealt. I have noticed that even as of today, Dr. Paula Gordon is still beating on the embedded system drum. She just can't give it up. At least Bruce Beach has openly admitted that it appears he was wrong. Good for him.

-- Anonymous, January 11, 2000

Gordon, without going to any trouble, would you happen to have a link or url for Paula Gordon's current re-assessment of embedded chips as a problem? I wasn't able to find anything current on her page or in a web search. (FWIW, I'm only mildly interested. This family is moving on, eating its way thru y2k provisions, all the way back to normalcy...but I am interested enough to look at it.) Thank you!

-- Anonymous, January 11, 2000

Reporter, I used the term "researched" loosely, what I did was go to the traditional news sources after reading about the train crash in Norway at TB2000. One of the earlier stories I read indicated that the section of track involved had no upgraded computer controls, the latest story doesn't even mention this, instead, it indicates that one of the trains may have started on a red light:

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20000109/wl/norway_train_crash_1.html "Probe: Norway Train Missed Red Light" By DOUG MELLGREN Associated Press Writer

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20000109/wl/crash_train_4.html Sunday January 9 4:33 PM ET Norway Train Driver Passed Red Light-Inquiry By Alister Doyle

Here's an interesting excerpt from the second story regarding safety systems: ----- Safety Systems

The investigators questioned safety systems in place along the Roeros line and some other European lines after the crash, the worst rail disaster in Norway since 1975.

``A single person's action is the only barrier to a train passing a stop signal,'' Skovdahl said, questioning whether such a system was acceptable by today's standards.

Most rail lines in Norway have been upgraded with a system under which the brakes automatically come on if a train passes a red light. Controllers can apply the brakes in an emergency.

The safety system was due to be installed on the Roeros line, first opened in 1877, later this year. --------

I find this article interesting in the sense that it demonstrates the impact (for better or worse, depending on how it's implimented) that technology has on the public safety. Everyday technological impact on public safety goes far beyond the minor threat y2k bugs posed in embedded systems.

FYI, a story I saw on the Brazil crash indicated a train was on the wrong track. Human error may have been a factor in both of these cases, but the facts remain to be seen I'm sure.

Jim, Here is Paula Gordon's latest threads at TB2000 regarding embedded systems: http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002Hzt http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002HzT

I have replied to Paula's posts in the past, but not this time. I think the time has passed to give credence to this stuff. I find it amazing that after Paula's warnings about the serious consequences of the rollover being so wrong, she comes back with more of the same stuff with even less evidence to back it up.

FYI, the testing I did and the results of testing by others I saw indicate that the almost all embedded system y2k problems showed up right at the rollover, and while there are some exceptions, these are few and much less likely to have a significant impact (trending, etc. may be affected as a typical delayed problem). Ask yourself this - if the actual rollover didn't bring severe problems, will the far fewer later y2k bugs in embedded systems be as bad or worse? Then you will have your answer.

I am a bit proud than I notice a pretty large number of Paula's previous fans at TB2000 have not said a word in the thread, and a few regulars are even taking issue. Good for them...fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me.

Gordon Connolly- right on my man. Hey, did you know that Bruce Beach was on the news? He was the guy that buried a bunch of school buses in the ground years ago, and with the advent of the y2k threat he turned them into y2k bunkers. Same guy that came up with the Beach Bug hypothysis. Now if we had just had THAT background a year ago, I think we would have heard less on that theory :)

And Jim, about those Y2K provisions, you never know when they might come in handy. Hey, I like the whole survivalist thing, love the independence of it, just never saw the need for y2k (ususally do it on Canadian fishing trips though).

Regards,

-- Anonymous, January 11, 2000

Gordon, thank you sincerely for the url's to those Paula Gordon threads. Interesting; however, I'm somehow not very concerned about it anymore. It's past time for us to accept, and to move on. After all, I did have a valid life prior to and independent of y2k. Many of us have been changed incalculably (??) by this moment, but hopefully it will be a case of having lemons and making lemonade. Better to be back again scrimping from check to check, than to have more millions of people in the world suffering without help. (Thanks to the programmers, who are the true unsung heroes...)

FactFinder, thank you. You are correct, of course. Our food was set for 6-8 weeks, so we have some time to work thru it. It is now a grocery buffer. As far as the other preparations, which were made out of power loss concerns, yesterday on CNN's Year 2000 Bug I posted: "Thanks to y2k, my family will hopefully never again weather through any winter - without being prepared for the possibility of a serious power outage due to ice or any other cause. That, at least, is worth something to us. I had somehow never given the matter much active thought before."

I won't sell the last of the kerosene until mid-March. I'd bought two kerosene heaters - one (I tested), and one as a backup. I'll keep both of them, winter to winter.

Thanks again!

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2000

Jim,

I appreciate getting credit for the Paula Gordon URL's but I can't accept it. FactFinder did that for you. He's a wealth of information in the URL department. Second only to Bonnie in that regard. ;-) I will say this though, I don't want to dump any heavy criticism on Dr. Paula Gordon, since she stuck her professional neck way out over her own beliefs about embedded systems. But, as FactFinder stated, the data does not support her previous feelings of alarm now, and it would be better to give it a rest. That's all. It starts to look like someone trying to make a sow's ear out of a silk purse......errrrr, never mind, I think we went down that road before, many months ago.

-- Anonymous, January 13, 2000

Yes, Thank you, FactFinder, and again to you, Gordon. It was so good, tonight, going through the local grocery store with my wife, and coming out with a cart of normal perishables...rather than a cart filled with canned goods and bottled water, batteries, etc. We still have 120 rolls of toilet paper and nearly 500 lbs. of cat litter in the basement. And my wife is on a y2k wheat cracker and chili kick!

-- Anonymous, January 14, 2000