Democracy before reunification

JASON BLATT in Taipei
Monday, January 17, 2000

Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui yesterday stressed again the Government's insistence that cross-strait reunification can only occur after the mainland has become fully democratic.

"The time for national reunification is when the people of mainland China enjoy freedom, democracy and equitable distribution of wealth," Mr Lee told a group of visiting United States senators.

Mr Lee made the remarks while receiving the senators including Tim Hutchinson, Susan Collins and Michael Enzi, all members of the Republican Party.

Mr Lee, whom Beijing has derided for purportedly ruining cross-strait relations, stressed his role in promoting "peaceful" cross-strait exchanges since becoming president in 1988.

"Cross-strait relations have changed from a tense stand-off into peaceful exchanges," he said.

But Mr Lee added that Taiwan would never accept Beijing's stance that it was a part of the People's Republic of China.

He maintained that the Republic of China has never ceased to be a sovereign state.

Infuriated by Mr Lee's assertion, Beijing has more than once repeated its option of using force to settle the dispute with Taipei, branding the Kuomintang Government leader as a "splittist".

"Under the influence of the Chinese communists, the international community has come to equate the 'People's Republic of China' with the concept of 'one China'," Mr Lee said. "This we can never accept."

He said that was why he raised his "special state-to-state" theory last July in an interview with a German radio to assert Taiwan's statehood claim.

The President said he would devote his time to helping non-governmental organisations after he steps down in May and might return to universities to study biology and genetic sciences.

The senators were in Taiwan at the same time as a separate, six-member delegation from the US House of Representatives, led by Republican Matt Salmon.

Mr Salmon, whose delegation was also scheduled to hold a meeting with Mr Lee before leaving this morning, had said in Hong Kong he hoped Mr Lee would refrain from increasing Beijing's anger as Taiwan prepares to hold its presidential election in March.

But Mr Salmon remained quiet on the issue after arriving in Taipei over the weekend.

He said he had a "specific message" for Mr Lee, but added that he wanted to wait until he had a chance to meet him before making the message public

Taiwan throws down the Gauntlet, how will the mainland respond?

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 17, 2000

Answers

The fact China hasn't done anything to Taiwan thus far has less to do with what Taiwan has or has not said and more to do with the fact that it's physically impossible for them to invade and conquer Taiwan, almost as impossible as it would be for Canada to invade and conquer the US...even if the US didn't lift a finger to assist Taiwan.

What they can do is impose a Naval blockade on Taiwan, lob missles into Taiwan, and bomb Taiwan from the air..which would be rather unpleasant for the Taiwanese but they could last an exceeding long time even if that happened. (With likely extremely negative effects for China in terms of world opinion.)

And any sort of US military assistance for Taiwan means the naval blockade is easily broken, and no more bombing of Taiwan as the Chinese loose air superiority..cuts them down to lobbing missles in (I mean conventional stuff, not nukes, of course) which is essentially an annoyance in the big picture.

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 17, 2000.

John, why do you believe it is impossible for them to invade Taiwan? I have been figuring it is only a matter of time now but don't know the logistics of it all.

-- tt (cuddluppy@aol.com), January 17, 2000.

I'm no military expert but I do like to follow the military force strengths of different countries. China has virtually no amphibious warfare capacity. Almost all of her larger landing ships are ex-US WWII era LST and LSM's. She has less than 150 LCM's which would be needed to carry troops ashore. She would need at least 400 landing craft to pose a credible threat.

The Chines Navy, while numerically large, is not of high quality. Her ship to ship missles are mostly obsolete and easily countered by modern anti-missle defense. Her SAM's are even more obsolete and ineffective. Her air force is made up of copies of Soviet Mig 19 and Mig 21 fighters that are obsolescent at best. Most of the upgrading of her military forces with modern western equipment stopped with the Tienanmen Square massacre.

Taiwan, by contrast, has a very effective air force with modern equipment, well trained pilots, and good support. Her navy has been steadily building strength, especially in submarines, over the past decade, and would do major damage to an attempted Chinese landing.

While there's no doubt that China remains a threat to Taiwan, it's very unlikely that they could successfully invade and occupy without a tremendous buildup of their military.

Jim

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), January 17, 2000.

I know it seems sort of counter-intuitive, if you look at a map and see this giant country close to this tiny little island, and China has a billion + people..

But large scale amphibious invasions where you are not landing unopposed is INCREDIBLY hard, much harder than you think. The ONLY people to do it in the modern era successfully were the Americans and British in WWII...even the Japanese, when they had their successes in 1941 and 1942, were landing in areas where no one was anywhere near the beaches..for example, when they took Singapore, they landed well up the coast and marched down. Where they DID find opposition, they had problems..the first invasion of Wake Island was beaten back by a handful of Marines. Took them two tries.

The Chinese have never successfully had a large scale modern amphibious invasion EVER. The Americans and British had a vast number of smaller invasions to gain experience before attempting the large invasions at the end of WWII. There is nothing you can do militarily that's more complicated.

And, believe it or not, invading Taiwan would be HARDER and require more forces and equipment than invading Normandy. It's much further from China to Taiwan than from Britain to France. If you look at the size of the Taiwanese Army, it actually compares favorably to what the Germans had in NW France.

And, most importantly, China doesn't have the ships. Currently, the United States probably has 10 times more amphibious capability than the rest of the world combined.

And right now, it would take EVERY amphibious ship in the US Navy to land ONE division. The Chinese don't have enough to land anything more than a raiding force in Taiwan.

Anything the Chinese could land in Taiwan would simply be immediately captured or massacred.

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 17, 2000.

To prevent the breakup of an empire, leaders will sometimes do horrible things.
(And for a lot of other reasons too, but that is a different thread...)

What could the Mainland communists do to Taiwan that would cause them to capitulate?
1) Naval assault is out, for reasons listed above.
2) Naval blockade - risky
     a) Taiwan has subs
     b) US has Pacific fleet which might help
     c) Chinese economy will also suffer

3) Non-Nuclear EMP strike
   (Take out a few city blocks to prove a point)
4) Graphite bombs to take out Electric power stations
5) Seize all Taiwanese assets on the mainland
6) Tell the North Koreans they can have Taiwan, as a province of China, if they take it.
7) Use the UN and WTO to cut off all avenues to market for Taiwanese goods.


Anyone have additions or subtractions or modifications?
(If I can list these in 5 minutes, you can probably double then by tomorrow)

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 17, 2000.