I'm beginning to think RC & paula Grdon were right. Two more refinery snafus surface Wednesday.

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How many more are going unreported?

Crude oil feed line down forcing run cuts

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), January 19, 2000

Answers

Sorry about the faulty link (in a hurry) but here's the text:

2000-01-19 12:39:08 EST SUNOCO HAVING CRUDE LINE PROBLEM AT MARCUS HOOK REFINERY New York spot trading sources tell OPIS that Sunoco is having a problem with a crude line that connects its docking facilities to the 175,000 b/d Marcus Hook refinery in Philadelphia. Sources say that Sunoco has reportedly been a "big buyer" in the Harbor spot market today and has put some of its suppliers on allocation. The loss of crude flow to the refinery has made it very difficult for Sunoco to create feedstock for its 85,000 b/d catcracker, which is impacted its ability to make gasoline and distillate components. Spot sources say the loss of product has shoot up spot premiums to the NYMEX. At presstime, high sulfur was 6cts over the Feb. futures print, while low sulfur diesel was 7cts over. Kerosene is a whooping 21cts over. Calls to Sunoco for comment were not returned at presstime.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), January 19, 2000.


...and here's a link that works on the other Ohio refinery fire story...

Working Link

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), January 19, 2000.


Wow. Just when you thought it was safe to forget about Y2K ...

-- deja vu (wake@me.over), January 19, 2000.

Not only that but we are having some sub zero temps descending into the States recently as well. Add to mix, stirr vigorously.

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), January 19, 2000.

Could one of the Pollies step in here and difuse this issue once again? I'm starting to get scared... these guys are coming up with too many substantive facts! Maybe there's a "this happens all the time in the oil industry" bromides out there that will put an end to this speculation!

-- John Cauthen (johnr@cetlink.net), January 19, 2000.


Anyone have time or sources to research the situations with refineries last year at this time. Is this unusual or are we just paying attention.

-- Sheri (wncy2k@nccn.net), January 19, 2000.

-- Jack Wilson said, "You can thank me later."

Thank you for what?

Being an incipient bore?

Not paying attention?

Being too egotistical to look outside your box?

Being a horses ass, a creep or simply a pathetic moron???

Or all of the above?

Regards,

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), January 19, 2000.


Sherri.......I think it's pretty evident. If not drive down to you local "phil'er up mart",and see for yourself. Supply and demand- got a clue ?

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), January 19, 2000.

I posted this on another thread, so sorry if it is a duplicate for you. It is from a "polly" who e-mailed it to me:

There are ALWAYS problems in the oil industry. It's usually different problems on different days, with different companies....

It has ALWAYS been this way, it will ALWAYS continue to be this way.

People fix the problems relatively quickly because they know their company needs to survive. They have the knowledge and resources to fix the problems Patrick, honest they do!

Buddy, we don't need to worry about a refinery in Vensuela, or Alaska, or anywhere else, because WE WILL STILL HAVE OIL. Even if one entire region refused to sell us oil, it doesn't matter. There are a lot of places we can get oil.

In conclusion, it doesn't matter if a few refineries have a problem (unless, I suppose, you work for those companies!)

Please stop worring about it.

Best Regards,

-- Patrick21 (sea_stars1@mailexcite.com), January 19, 2000.


The problem with receiving this type of information is that there is nothing to compare with 1999 or past years. I do a newsletter on Y2K glitches but if there are many situations like this occuring it is difficult to know what is causing it and if situations like this have occurred on a regular basis in the past.

-- Richard Markland (MARKL98@WESNET.COM), January 19, 2000.


Two responses to the 'this always happens in the oil industry' skeptics:

~As I even said to you guys before the rollover:tch the NYMEX markets.They are currently going through the roof. We can gauge these against historical moves. Yes, we've seen rallies like this before, but rarely.

~ We've also seen time frames when we've had a spate of refinery mishaps like this, but rarely. Usually they are small glitches and the units come right back up. The magnitude of the Venz problem and Motiva Delaware seem to be significant. I'll also repeat another comment I've made before: We (even industry insiders) probably only hear about half the refining problems at any given time. How many more are out there?

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), January 19, 2000.


Opps. hit the Insert key...

Of course I meant Watch the NYMEX markets. And let me give you a specific market reflecting big problems: Notice the Feb NYMEX heating oil gushed 3 cents/ gallon today to close over 80 cents. Now notice its trading 5 cents over the March and 10 cents over the April This reflects big supply problems BUT it also tells you that traders and refiners think its short term...

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), January 19, 2000.


I'm willing to believe that perhaps most, but not all, of the refinery problems are not Y2K related...

But the reason doesn't necessarily matter...production and refining are down, gasoline, heating oil, kerosine (jet fuel), and #2 bunker are more expensive. These, in turn, cause other products and services to be more expensive (shipping costs more, for example).

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), January 19, 2000.


Gas is the same as it was last month, here.

We saw major increases in California last year when 4 refineries went down. We can only purchase gasoline refined in California from what I understand due to pollution standards and addition of MTBE.

-- Sheri (wncy2k@nccn.net), January 19, 2000.


Glad to help John. As usual, absolutely no credible evidence of anything related to y2k causing refinery shutdowns, or any other significant oil industry problems. The OPEC effects are helpful for the doomers though, since they are driving prices up. Y2K causes refinery fire? Only in the last great hopes of the dying y2k doomsday movement....

Track oil prices, track refinery problems (regardless the cause) and pretend in our minds that its all because of y2k. A desperate attempt to not be totally wrong and a fruitcake...

What a bakesale, lol.

Regards,

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), January 19, 2000.



Factfinder on the deck of the Titanic shouting lets party on no problem here just a little bump !!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 19, 2000.


snooze, love it when you talk dirty, LOL

Patrick21, I remember that post...funny, when the world looks oh-so- big-and-scary, most folks stick their head up their butt to feel all safe and warm again, huh?

LOL, Cheri STILL rebutals with...but the PUMP price...

...but but but shit!

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 19, 2000.


Factfinder,

Mucho thanko for your sensible approach to this... As a technician in the nuclear power industry, I keep reading all these NRC daily status reports of problems at various nuclear power plants as though they are something new, and possibly related to Y2K. When I read most of them I can immediately disqualify them as Y2K related. Nuclear plants, contrary to popular belief, don't rely that much on computers for control functions. I can't explain all of the failures, but they aren't any more frequent than pre-Y2K.

Now, I plead ignorance to the oil and refinement business. I do have a good idea that they are far more automated than the nuclear industry and make extensive use of embedded systems. Could something go wrong with an embedded system that would cause a fire or explosion? Possibly... I just don't know enough about the process, maybe this will bring out some people in the industry who can speak to it first hand.

Whatever is going on to cause this apparently abnormal rash of failures, it seems to me that they are at least partly responsible for the rising oil prices, Y2K related or not.

-- John Cauthen (johnr@cetlink.net), January 19, 2000.


Hokie,
I think you have mistaken Sheri for Cheri. Moreover, Sheri's answers on this thread (see below) did not seem to suggest denial.

Sheri: Anyone have time or sources to research the situations with refineries last year at this time. Is this unusual or are we just paying attention.

Kevin: Sherri.......I think it's pretty evident. If not drive down to you local "phil'er up mart",and see for yourself. Supply and demand- got a clue ?

Sheri: Gas is the same as it was last month, here.

Sheri (cont.): We saw major increases in California last year when 4 refineries went down. We can only purchase gasoline refined in California from what I understand due to pollution standards and addition of MTBE.

-- David L (bumpkin@dnet.net), January 19, 2000.


my appology, thanks for pointing that out to me:)

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 19, 2000.

Factfinder on the deck of the Titanic shouting lets party on no problem here just a little bump !!!

Ray on the observatory deck of the Space Needle on a sunny day shouting Man the lifeboats, we are about to hit an iceburg
:-)

-- Butt Nugget (catsbutt@umailme.com), January 19, 2000.


Factfinder,

Of course, its all just a "marvelous" coincidence. If you're not already on the Clinton PR Spinsquad at the White House, you should apply for a position there. They could use you. Or hey, I know Algore is needing help. You might just make the difference for him.

Regarding Oil and Y2K... as a corporate big oil shill, the last thing you'll want to do is admit to a Y2k problem right now as this will open you up to all sorts of problems, not the least of which is severe pressure on your stocks, not to mention lawsuits, and most likely an admission will provoke an early and enforced retirement. Most corp bigwigs will move heaven and earth to avoid the retirement and lawsuite threat alone. SO there is real disincentive to come clean on Y2K. There is also the damage to credibility to consider as well.

All that said... one other aspect. For more than 40 years as someone who grew up in the oil business, I can say that the level of problems refineries are experiencing this January (unrelated to weather) is UNPRECEDENTED. There are no statistics that I know of though that can verify this. Downstreamer though, acknowledges this too and he's no doomer. Frankly, neither am I doomer. I've been sandwiched in that category because I defended the doomers positions pre and post rollover as not to be dismissed (short of TEOTWAWKI) I started out as a "3-5" prior to my finding this forum last year and I moved up to a "7" (if we had a massive 1/1/00 blowout of infrastructure)...but I didn't completely rule out an 8 or 9 as impossible.

Now, whether one dismisses what my relatives and friends in the oil biz are saying, one should be able to objectively look at the mounting data and realize that something isn't right here, especially keeping in mind the extra incentives for corporations not to reveal serious Y2K problems. Sure admit to the little non-problematic incidents but stonewall and obfuscate anything of significance until it becomes unmanageable.

Factfinder...I've got family laying their very lives on the line telling me that things are more dangerous now than they ever have been. Systems have become unstable. Yes embeddeds are a problem and they are very concerned. Frankly, they'd love to come forward, but the moment they do, they're history. They'll be blacklisted and they know they'll never work again if they spill their guts. So they're NOT gonna talk to you, period. Oh, and not everyone in a refinery knows they've got embeddeds problems. It's just on a need to know basis. However, whispers are known to get around.

Frankly, son, you don't have a clue and your foolish enough to stand out in front of this train thinking your some sort of Superman who can write this situation off as nonsense. Well it is NOT nonsense. Frankly, we're a little further ahead of the curve than I'd expected. In the last two days, I'm being told that incident rates are rising. Systems that were thought to be remediated and fine are suddenly NOT. Remediation continues but one fellow told me that it is very similar to trying to track down a "computer-chip sensor" on some of those first computerized cars in the late 1980s...in which you have to go thru a sequence to track down a problem. You start with sensor A and find it is bad. You can't keep checking the other sensors to see how bad they are until you first replace sensor A that is bad. So you replace A. Then sensor B is fine, but C is not. You replace C only to find out that the new A has now also blown out again before you can test for sensor D. So now you have to go back and re-replace again sensor A. From what I understand there have been some incidents of this occuring that is driving some folks crazy. So they've been chasing their tails so to speak. I don't know how prevalent this is across the industry, but my one source who is head Y2k remediator for a major refinery indicates that this has been his experience so far and is hearing that his story is not unique, but he's not heard any details of elsewhere. Right now, its just a nuisance that makes the processes stop and start. In sharing this with others, I'm told it seems to match up to their experiences elsewhere. We are seeing folks getting hurt, some not reported to the media at all. Unless it makes for spectacular video for the 10 o'clock news nobody in the media is going to pay attention to it. After all, Y2k was a non-event Clinton said so.

Frankly Factfinder, people like you disgust me. You have certainly demonstrated to me in the past that your actions do not measure up to the character you wish to be applied to you on the basis of your name.



-- RC (racambab@mailcity.com), January 20, 2000.


Factfinder, your posting is along the lines of what i've been posting lately.

RC, you are living in a dreamworld and what a way to be, praying that something will happen to justify the stance you've taken.

If something happens in the oil industry, so be it, there are always problems in any manufacturing. For you and other doomers to keep saying these problems are attributable to y2k is only opinion and on evidence to date, a very wrong opinion.

Tell me RC, how disappointed were you on Jan 1st when nothing happened?? I guess probably a lot, but you were still hoping for something to happen during the week, when the business world started.

And then when nothing happened, how did you feel? You are trying to string this out for how long? The longer you try to make an issue of this, the more foolish you are going to look when it all amounts to is a very small insignificant bump in the road.

-- Mr. Sane (hhh@home.com), January 20, 2000.


RC,

Thanks for the detailed (and alarming) information on the oil refinery production remediation problems. I admit that most of the time I'm a lurker and gather information, but the replies of the pollies on this thread are a bit much to take. I see no mention of credentials in their rebuttals, but a lot of wishful rhetoric. I have been a mainframe programmer/analyst for the last 30 years, among the companies I have worked for is a major oil company and at that time (late 1970's) their production was already heavily committed to computer control. So what you are presenting from personal knowledge seems perfectly logical. What I have seen so far in the 'Y2K' glitch area for my current client (not an oil company), has been and is being handled by the current staff on a case by case basis. I have never known a corporation to "air its dirty laundry" unless it was publicy noticeable and needed to be addressed. So the "Hush" rule applies as always, which explains the lack of press on any problems and also why I cannot disclose any details. I see no reason why people who are prudently prepared for a disaster are accused of wanting that disaster to occur, and then any valid information they have to contribute is written off as a "false alarm" by those who have no expertise in the area of discussion. I know that the staff I am acquainted with are able to cope as long as a big "unforeseen oops" doesn't occur, and I'm sure the same holds true for the rest of the industry. Let's hope those "OOPS" don't happen. Thanks again for your info

-- Tom (tcgmtnman@spiralcomm.net), January 20, 2000.


Someone sent me this thread. I have never posted here. I see Factfinder is still at it as he was/is on Rick Cowels' forum - makes sweeping statements concerning sectors he knows little about, still obnoxious with a condescending attitude. Doubt he knows what an oil well looks like. Best way to deal with him is to ignore his ranting and don't respond to his posts. Enough about him, not worth the effort.

RC, I have been waiting to see what happens with delivery of crude oil to this country and to see if refineries hold up. I grew up in the east Texas oil field. I live two hours north of Texas City. Used to live 12 miles from there. Texas keeps the country going along with Venezuela and the Persian Gulf states. I don't believe this story is over. A few more refineries down and we are in trouble. Losing the refinery in Venezuela is a serious blow.

-- Marcella (mdshaw@webtv.net), January 23, 2000.


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