Before the Rollover

Jul: 1 Three Oil refinery fires this month. Aug:1 Two Oil refinery fire this month. Oct: One Oil refinery fire this month. 28th. Nov: Oil refinery blows it's top this month.

That's a total of only 6

After the rollover

1 Jan, British Petroleum has y2k trouble 3 Jan, Nigerian oil pipeline forced to shutdown. 4 Jan two refineries have y2k problems, forced to shutdown soon. 5 Jan, 4 more Oil refineries are downed. 7 Jan fire knocks out another oil refinery for the day. 12 Jan, Another oil refinery loses power and is out. 14 Jan, Another oil refinery is down due to mechanical failure. 18 Jan, Venezuela has oil trouble 19 Jan, Another oil refinery blows itself up.

And we aint gotten halfway through the month yet! That is over 10 referines crippled with y2k trouble. Only 169 oil refineries in the U.S and 755 in the world? Keep counting, the numbers of failing refineries is creeping up. There is a definite increase of refinery break downs, there was only a few since near the beginning of 1999, and now look at the sudden increase, almost trebled for this month. This is definitely connected to the y2k embedded issues.

-- Brent Nichols (b-nichol@ihug.co.nz), January 19, 2000

Answers

Oh, I couldn't post Jan's -May's data because the posts on here are limited to Jun, unless there is an archive of past posts I can go to.

-- Brent Nichols (b-nichol@ihug.co.nz), January 19, 2000.

Thanks for all the digging Brent. Good work!

From mid 1998 up to mid 1999, the highest number of major refinery incidents in the US was around 4 per month--usually 2 per month. This month alone to date, January 2000, there have been at least 10 reported on TB2000 alone. I have not checked other sources. Yes, something is causing this large increase. This is way outside any statistical uncertainty--like 8 or 9 sigmas.

Michael Munn, Ph.D Retired Lockheed Chief Scientist

-- Michael Munn (kuti@theriver.com), January 19, 2000.

OK, I did the numbers. If you look down to the thread referencing Seven refinery incidents, you'll find that folks posted the comprehensive list of incidents that Robert Waldrop and I put together jointly. If one takes JUST the US refinery incidents between July of 1998 and June 1999 inclusive, then the following numbers come out:

Monthly average number of incidents = 2.92 Standard Deviation = .95

So, the 10 we have reported to date on TB2000 represent a value which is 7.5 standard deviations off the mean. Since we have a third of the month to go yet, we need to "guess" the total to do apples to apples comparisons. If we extrapolate to 15 incidents by month's end, then the final value will be 15.8 standard deviations at that point--to compare apples with apples.

I can think of no other factor than Y2K to account for auch an overwhelming difference.

What this says is that there are a lot more incidents than in the past. They are so far outside the historical standard deviation that there is no question of statistics here. This is real stuff.

The real question is, "What does it mean in terms of effects on you and I?"

Michael Munn, Ph.D. Retired Lockheed Chief Scientist

-- Michael Munn (kuti@theriver.com), January 19, 2000.

Thanks Brent - I started a thread on this the other day and took a lot of flak for my efforts - I would guess we are only haering of a fraction of ***actual*** problems - Harry Schultz figures 30%, I would go eve lower. Buying moe oil options tomorrow...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 19, 2000.

Really nice work Brent. I know it takes some digging to put all of this together. I definitely smell a rat here, and I'm willing to entertain the notion that Y2K related problems may be resosible for many of them. Here again, don't you think that the oil companies and refineries aren't going to admit this a Y2K related problem for insurance purposes? Haven't most insurance policies been given immunity for Y2K liability?

-- John Cauthen (johnr@cetlink.net), January 19, 2000.

There's also ones you're not hearing about. Throw in another one or two just for shits n giggles.

People in the bus are starting to get a little nervous. Just a little mind you, but I can see it. They're starting to wonder themselves.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 19, 2000.

Dr Munn;

Thank you sir for crunching the numbers. As a paltry BSCS with not nearly enough math and statistics, I can understand these sigmas but I can only crunch them if I dig out the old books.

You ask what it means for you and I, I can help you there but you really don't need my help. It means that gasoline will double in cost by June, perhaps sooner.

The social implications are staggering. Don't take any loans.

-m-

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 19, 2000.

Brent,

Could you list the refinery name and location along with the date? I think we might be missing some. If you can, it would be helpful. I'm gonna go back thru some of my notes and will double check with you to see if we've missed any. Thanks for all your hard work.

-- RC (racambab@mailcity.com), January 20, 2000.

Glad someone was able to find past statistics for comparison. It is still a little early to assert that there are going to be serious gas problems yet...... we will have to wait through February at least, I would think, for this situation to break the surface to the point of drawing definite conclusions.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), January 20, 2000.

I have seen all these reports of oil refinery failures, and the percentage rate increase. Not a blip about it on the tube or in the daily rag sheet. A total black out. Plenty on Cuban boy. I notice when they run out of fluff, they dig up something that happened thirty years ago, and try to make it a daily news item. Not anything on any of the air tradgedies, nothing on any of the sewage spills. I wonder how much other stuff they have hidden from us. If it were not for this board, we would be completely blind. I wonder when they will figure a way to shut this down.

-- Notforlong (Fsur@aol.com), January 20, 2000.

"People in the bus are starting to get a little nervous. Just a little mind you, but I can see it. They're starting to wonder themselves."

No they're not. You're delusional. They are asleep. They might be delusional too, mind you.

Once again:

Where are these figures from?

Who compiled them?

Are they international or what?

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 20, 2000.

Servant you pathetic piece of shit. You pop up like a turd in a puncgbowl on evry single oil thread and spout your drivel.

Why don't you for once do some detective work yourself.

Come on big boy, you can do it...

Brent and I and others have posted specifics.

Now you go back to this time last year and do a simple compare... do you think yo can do that? I doubt it.

Don't open your mouth again of these threads unless you can come up with facts to discredit what I've just said.

Imbecile.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 20, 2000.