Embedded Bus expert speaks on oil

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

from Cory's listserver...

Here we are at Thursday already. The day that I said I would try to evaluate the OIL situation. The picture is still cloudy. In fact, you might say cloudier. Even darker. We were looking to see if the price increases were a mere blip, or whether they were really going up and were going to go over $28 this week. Well, they did. They are even over $28.60 as I write at this moment. Then there was the matter of reported refinery problems. Were they a blip? Or within the parameters of usual problems. Nope, they weren't a blip either. There were a number more problems since Friday, and 4 of them were serious. One VERY serious. This far exceeds being any statistical accident. It is Y2K. BUT, how serious is it? We STILL can't tell. If it continues the way it is going, it is going to be pretty serious, and can have VERY serious effects for the economy. What I have felt would be the BIG oil report out of Russia is still cloudy also. There were two positive reports about the Russian pipeline. However, it is verified that the Russian Missile Warning System is highly dysfunctional. A worry to the West, because we don't want them becoming paranoid. The question is whether there could be other systems like OIL, that are likewise having problems, but are still being covered up. If you are following them, the rumour mills are in full voice this morning about Saudi Arabia. You can, however, discount by 50% the key statement from the Yourdon Report. If you read between the lines, it was made BEFORE the rollover. However, enough Saudi info is coming out to cause some real edginess. Before Y2K the Saudi's had promised that they would take up any slack. Now, they are saying they are cutting back production to OPEC quotas. One interpretation is - No Y2K problem - no need to provide more than quota. Another interpretation (supported by some technical reports/rumours) is that they CAN'T supply more. (Similar reports coming out of Iraq). And we KNOW about Venezuela - the largest South American exporter to the U.S. The only REAL barometer of all this is OIL prices and gasoline prices. It takes a while for the oil prices to filter through the refineries and to the gaspump, but it looks like it is coming. Before Y2K rollover, I said, (because most oil watchers said), we will have to wait 6 weeks (mid-February) to tell what happened. That still seems to be the case. It doesn't seem as bad as originally feared, but still, the possibility appears that it could be very serious. We have to keep watching. THIS is important news right now. The Cuban boy in Florida is not really that important. But how much are you hearing about these refineries, and related matters, on the evening news?

Peace and love, Bruce Beach.

-- number six (iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), January 20, 2000

Answers

Bruce Beach??? ROFLMAO...did he dig himself out of those buried school buses he's using for y2k bunkers to write that? Is RC holed up in there with him????

Number of documented serious oil problems due to y2k = 0. Please post new ones with industry sources in this thread. Unicorns also accepted.

Gotta love it.

-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), January 20, 2000.


courtesy repost:

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002Mgy

Small clarification here: there is no such thing as "the Yourdon Report." I've got a discussion forum running over on eGroups (more info available on my web site at www.yourdon.com), and back on Tuesday, a private individual posted a note about his assessment of the Saudi situation. Someone else on my forum then decided to repost it elsewhere, and it popped up on THIS forum last night. I don't think the original poster on my forum intended for his statement to be taken as a "I-swear-on-a-stack-of-Bibles-that-this-is-true" statement. As Mr. Beach says in the quoted material above, "We have to keep watching." As a non-expert, and non-participant, in the oil industry, that's all I'm capable of doing at this point.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), January 20, 2000.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 20, 2000.


Sorry. Just noticed this is a re-post.

-- number six (#@#.com), January 20, 2000.

Hey factfinder

I thought the NSA reasigned you to Putin detail?

What gives. Don't we have more pressing foriegn crises that demand the attention of your particular cell?

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 20, 2000.


Allow me to synopsise, with the dross removed:

"The oil price on Thursday 20th January 2000 was $28.60"

All else is speculation.

"If it continues the way it is going, it is going to be pretty serious, and can have VERY serious effects for the economy.".

Well, DUH.

Might be better to save the doomer crowing for when it hits $35.

Or you could just go ahead and cry wolf. Again.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 21, 2000.



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