The Actual Refinery Situation in the U.S.A.

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The following Bloomberg News chronological list of refineries operating at reduced capacities is obtained from a link posted at Downstreamer's interesting petroleum products forum.

From what I can tell from the list, only three U.S. refineries are currently down for planned maintenance. All others are apparently operative.

I'd like some informed commentary on the list, and how it is possible that there are any *real* shortages or delayed deliveries of *any* petro product in the U.S. -- aside from artificially created shortages and/or delays through recent *market* behavior.

From: http://quote.bloomberg.com/news2.cgi?T=energy_refout.ht&s=73830972

Refinery Outages
Thu, 20 Jan 2000, 9:52pm EST 


Refinery and Pipeline Outage Update for Jan. 20 

Princeton, New Jersey, Jan. 20 (Bloomberg Energy)-- The following
refineries and pipelines were reported at reduced capacities:

Company Location Unit Capacity  Down Restart Event
                      ('000b/d) Date Date    Confirm

Exxon Beaumont,TX Crude 220 1/30/00 2/27/00 P No
Exxon Beaumont,TX Coker 45.4 1/30/00 2/27/00 P No
Equilon Wood River,IL Cat Crack 45 1/20/00 2/3/00 P Yes
Sunoco Marcus Hook Crude 85 1/20/00 2/3/00 P Yes
Pennzoil Shreveport,LA Refinery 46 1/18/00 NA U Yes
Tosco Ferndale,WA Refinery 88.5 1/28/00 02/27/00 P No
Arco Carson, CA HC NA 1/15/00 2/7/00 P No
Tosco Rodeo, CA Refinery NA 1/12/00 1/12/00 U Yes
Motiva Del City, DE Crude 140 1/7/00 1/17/00 U Yes
Clark Lima, OH HC 24 12/26/99 1/19/00 U Yes
Clark Lima, OH Reformer 55 12/26/99 1/18/00 U Yes
Coastal Eagle Pt, NJ Refinery 140 1/5/00 1/5/00 U Yes
Coastal Crp Christ,TX Cat Crack 20 12/31/99 1/6/00 U Yes
Equilon Wood River,IL Crude 200 12/30/99 1/5/00 U Yes
Motiva Norco, LA Refinery 225 1/2/00 1/8/00 U No
Equilon Newburn, TN Pipeline 1100 12/5/99 12/7/99 U Yes
Exxon Benicia, CA HC 32 12/3/99 12/18/99 P Yes
Amoco Whiting, IN Cat Crack NA 12/1/99 12/15/99 U No
Chevron Pascagoula,MS Cat Crack 63 11/20/99 11/27/99 U No
Valero Houston, TX Cat Crack 61 11/18/99 11/30/99 P Yes
Chalmette Chalmette, LA Coker NA 11/17/99 11/24/99 U Yes
Hess St.Croix,USVI Refinery 525 11/16/99 11/20/99 U Yes
Chevron Wortham,TX Pipeline 50 8/10/99 NA U Yes
Explorer Houston, TX Pipeline 560 12/31/99 1/1/00 P Yes
Colonial Pasadena, TX Pipelines 2100 12/31/99 1/1/00 P Yes

P=Planned maintenance, U=Unplanned maintenance 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
  ) Copyright 2000, Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved.
 


-- Harbor Guy (HarborGuy@OnThe.Waterfront), January 20, 2000

Answers

I do not include the Shreveport facility in my count of downed refineries because it was going to be closed anyway.

I'd like to reiterate a point I made on another thread: From my observations of Harbor activities, petro products are gushing out of the pipes of the New York Harbor waterfront facilities of TOSCO/Bayway, Exxon-Mobil, Hess, Shell, Coastal, Chevron, Texaco.

I question the reality of any petro shortages at this time. I consider the possibility of internal market manipulation at this time (a la "Oil Shortage of 1973").



-- Harbor Guy (HarborGuy@OnThe.Waterfront), January 20, 2000.

Humm... they're using their preps?

-- Carl (clilly@goentre.com), January 20, 2000.

Did you read the lead-in text that you quoted:

"The following refineries and pipelines were reported at reduced capacities"

IOW, they are not "down", but they *are* at "reduced capacities".

Capesh?

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), January 20, 2000.


Thanks for posting this information. Very useful. IMHO, there has been way too much hysteria whipped up about this. It appears to be terribly difficult to get through the rumors, speculation, hysteria and axe grinding to see some light.

Is there a PRICE problem with Oil? Absolutely! Only a fool would deny that. Might it progress to the point where serious economic impact will take place? Yes, if the current trends continue.

I do NOT profess to be an expert and I have no investments riding on the outcome. Hell, I don't have money...period! It just strikes me as slightly paranoid AT THIS TIME. With all due respect, our man Andy is heavily into gold and silver. It is only natural that his perspective heavily favors a price appreciation scenario for gold or silver. It is NO FLAME, just my observation on the human condition.

Look, I have to heat my home and gas up my car just like every other poor slob out there. Yes, things are tough price-wise at the oil truck or the gas pump. Could something bad be brewing? Yes. I simply cannot jump on the panic bandwagon at this time. I think we need to know much more before that judgement call can be made.

Just my two cents...

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), January 20, 2000.


Ron: You mean a refinery with a restart date of 11/20/99 is currently at reduced capacity? Mmmmm, s'pose so.



-- Harbor Guy (HarborGuy@OnThe.Waterfront), January 20, 2000.


Jerry: Are you retarded?



-- Harbor Guy (HarborGuy@OnThe.Waterfront), January 20, 2000.

Jerry;

In case you forgot, only 5% OF Y2K issues were expected to hit the fan right on rollover... we've got a long way to go... kind of think about it as sitting in the eye of a hurricane...

Once the tail end has passed over, and the clouds are gone, and I still have preps I haven't used, damn straight I'll donate them... and I'll bet if that time comes, I'll contribute more than you have or will, so keep your holier-than-thou crap and park it someplace probably real close to your brain...

-- Carl (clilly@goentre.com), January 20, 2000.


See this Bloomberg link for news of refinery outages, both planned and unplanned: http://quote.bloomberg.com/news2.cgi?T=energy_refout.ht&g=refout&c=20

-- slza (slzattas@erols.com), January 20, 2000.

HG -- I'm just reading what it says on the Bloomberg site:

-----------------------------------------------------

Refinery and Pipeline Outage Update for Jan. 20

Princeton, New Jersey, Jan. 20 (Bloomberg Energy)-- The following refineries and pipelines were reported at reduced capacities:

-----------------------------------------------------

Now, I *think* we can assume that "reduced capacities" would seem to imply that they're running, but at less than normal capacity, no?

As to the dates, all I can infer is that they're listing outfits operating at reduced capacity, and tossing in any known scheduled outages for any "FWIW value".

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), January 20, 2000.


14 unplanned. hmmmm.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 20, 2000.


Well maybe my data is wrong but I spent much of today compiling info on petroleum problems. My list includes those that are down right now -- that's significant for future prices and availability -- but also outages since the first of January since that may give an indication as to whether these might be Y2K problems. Judge for yourself.



-- marc1a (
marcia@nckodokan.com), January 20, 2000.


Sorry - the link didn't turn out. Let's try again:

http://www.nckodokan.com/charts/crude.html

-- marc1a (marcia@nckodokan.com), January 20, 2000.


Marc

Excellent graph work.

You listed approx. 50 refineries,while doing your research how many refineries did you locate in the world ? And of those which ones are the ones that are delegated to refining auto or heating oil (not the ones that make lubricants,oils or other not so important products)?(not that these aren't important).

These numbers would be very useful in examining potential shortfalls,ie the pat reply is that there are always problems and that now is no different than any other time.

Thanks for your time and hard work.

-- Common Man (me@libertytree.com), January 21, 2000.


I think that's Marcia rather than Marc ($0.02).

-- Edie Yew (edu@gov.org.com), January 21, 2000.

OOOOPS,

My apology maam.

-- Common Man (me@libertytree.com), January 21, 2000.



A few points from a non-oil person's perspective:

1. Add Sunnoco, PA facility to that list of unplanned outages.

2. Somebody posted a few days ago (unconfirmed) that there were only four unplanned outages/reductions in January of 1999 in the US. If so, then we are seeing a very large problem developing within the first two thirds of this January (and the first 3-4 days they were shut down).

3. Reduced output can swing either way over time. Either it will get better or it will get worse but I wouldn't assume either is a foregone conclusion at this point.

4. As each plant reduces output it will put more pressure on the remaining plants to make up the difference. I am beginning to wonder if that overload kind of upswing in production is a healthy thing to do right now for the survivor plants. It's called boundary testing in other lingos.

5. There is some evidence that shipments of crude to the east have been diverted from their original target customers in the west. If true, this is a shifting sands in the desert problem with a glut in the place that pays the highest price. Observing regular tanker traffic in one location, even if it is NY Harbor, is not the entire story. It can't be accurate to use that as one's only point of reference.

6. OPEC has not lowered their production quotas. They are holding them steady. Why didn't this problem of underproduction appear last year under the same quotas if the quotas were a problem?

7. What happened to all the reserves that were stockpiled before the rollover? If that buffer hadn't been there, where would we be today?

8. Another post here has a link to an industry site that says RACK producers are saying we may see diesel outages at the retail level within two weeks. Okie dokie. This is not life as we know it if you are a truck driver or Mercedes owner, correct?

9. I'm in New England and it has turned damned fucking cold, boys and girls. Our natural gas furnace has been running constantly all day and it's getting colder by the minute. Minus 45 degree windchill tonight. Tell me we aren't in deep shit if this keeps up.

10. The woodstove is fired up now and finally the furnace has shut down. I guess it wasn't so bloody stupid to buy a stove afterall, no matter how this turns out with oil. But who amongst us actually PREFERS running on oil heat at this moment as their sole source of heat?

-- paul leblanc (bronyaur@gis.net), January 21, 2000.


HG,

don't worry about the USA - remember we are the best prepared y2k country in the world, right, according to go skin'em...

worry about those countries that are both secretive and inept

saudi- anecdotal eveidence suggest serious problems

iran - FOfailure

iraq- we are still at war with them, remember, FOF

venezuela - force majeure

nigeria

north sea - uh, i suppose the brits have their act together

mexico - take a guess

etc.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.


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