Thanks to Bill P for this...

For now, we'll say that OIL is still the Achilles' heel, as we've warned before. Things are HAPPENING right now. Pennzoil closed one refinery. Iraq lost 75% of its oil production. A Y2K power outage in the middle east is affecting oil production. And many more such occurrences. Many oil men are being mysteriousie, refusing to comment.

As PROOF that these events are serious, U need look no further than the price of crude oil, heating oil & gasoline. Crude hit a multi-yr high on Friday, January 14in the face of a mild/warm winter when prices normally sell off. Someone knows something. The price tells U most of what U need to know.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000

Answers

And what is the price today?

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), January 21, 2000.

7c pullback to $27.90 as per Dick Moody's oscillators :o)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.

Thanks for all the info Andy, In the years I've followed the commodity markets it seems that the most powerful trends have occured when everybody is sitting around scratching their heads wondering what the hell's going on. This oil market describes that to a T.

-- Harvey Wilson (harv@hotmail.com), January 21, 2000.

OPEC-Inspired Panic Propels Oil Higher By Richard Mably

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices spiraled higher again on Friday as buyers scrambled to take out insurance against the prospect of a deepening shortage of supply on the world petroleum market.

Oil buyers are taking no chances that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries might relent and ease the output limits which have forced oil prices to nine-year highs.

In near panic scenes on the New York Mercantile Exchange, reminiscent of the 1990-1991 Gulf crisis, crude jumped another 60 cents to $28.57 a barrel for March delivery. February crude had peaked at $29.95 before expiry on Thursday.

``We haven't seen trade and volatility on the oil market like this in non wartime conditions for 15 years,'' said Peter Gignoux of Salomon Smith Barney.

``OPEC seems to have adopted a very aggressive strategy and appears set to increase production only if there are no alternatives to preventing markets from overheating,'' said Washington's Petroleum Finance Corp. in a note to clients.

Many traders think that point already has been reached.

``The heating oil market now is most definitely overheated,'' said Nauman Barakat of ABN Amro in New York.

U.S. home heating oil rose most sharply on Friday, propelled by a lengthening cold snap in the U.S. Northeast, the world's largest single market for the petroleum product.

Weather forecasters expect the week-old cold spell in the Northeast to continue until the end of January, accelerating a drain on already lean heating oil stocks.

NYMEX February heating oil futures were up nearly 10 cents a gallon in late morning trade at 96.25 cents. Cash heating oil in New York Harbor cost a further 35 cents a gallon. Cash prices have more than doubled in nine days, futures are up 50 percent.

While some OPEC watchers still suspect that the cartel may pull a surprise and shortly ease its output restrictions, ministers show no public sign of changing their strategy.

A year-long agreement among OPEC and non-OPEC allies Mexico and Norway keeping nearly five million barrels daily from the 75 million bpd world market is due to expire at the end of March.

But oil ministers from three OPEC countries reiterated after a meeting on Friday that the cartel has no intention of letting its customers off the hook.

Libya's Oil Minister Abdullah al-Badri told Reuters from Tripoli that he and his counterparts from Iran and Algeria had agreed to propose to OPEC's March 27 conference that the export limits be kept in place until September.

Energy economists say that will drag inventories below commercial minimum operating levels.

The International Energy Agency in Paris on Thursday warned that commercial inventories of crude and petroleum products now at 10-year lows would suffer another 2.5 million barrel a day shortfall during the first quarter.

Oil's swift rise has raised concerns in the finance ministries of the world's industrialized powers that dormant inflationary pressures might be reignited.

European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing said he now fears that a temporary rise in inflation could become more permanent if it leads to higher wage settlements.

``We see developments in headline inflation heavily impacted by oil prices, which have tripled in 12 months,'' Issing said in London.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 21, 2000.

Thanks. Where is a good place to check these few figures everybody keeps quoting about the oil price. I have no experience with commods.

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), January 21, 2000.

Andy could you post some links to the stories that have the mid east info you mentioned in your title (Iraq and power outage).

Thanks

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), January 21, 2000.

My question is this: WHY would OPEC and friends ease up on the quotas if they can charge more for less. If they can still generate substantial revenues and keep the oil in the ground, why would they ease up on the quotas? Out of the kindness of their hearts for the poor people in the US? I dooooooooonnnnnnnn't theenk so.....! Taz

-- Taz (Tassi123@aol.com), January 21, 2000.

They can't let oil become stay high as all the marginal oil projects else where in the world become viable. Now if they can't produce, they can talk all they want about easing quotas.

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), January 21, 2000.

Taz,

Might be weapons. Continued access to the best -- such as F16 HUDs and avionics that our people don't even have yet.

Or, if you can't produce or ship it through your ports, and you have to maintain your credibility as a stable, reliable producer, you just stay with the 'quotas' and fix like hades.

-- Redeye in Ohio (cannot@work.com), January 21, 2000.

Best place for quotes is www.mrci.com

look at day or night quotes

As for Iraq and electricity and a 75% cutback - this was posted on Kitco, allegedly from Harry Schultz - this is all I have - I'm relying on you folks for more detective work :o)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.

Andy, You know how close I watch this stuff. The Iraqi production cut and Mideast power outage is news to me. Aren't we a little fast and loose with our facts?

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), January 21, 2000.

Downstreamer -

Got the post from Gianno Dorri on Kitco today at noon -

Now it's up to us to do some detective work - this'll be hard because we are still technicall at war with Iraq aren't we???

Let's get ferreting...

as to the price action today...

WOW-wow!! What a nasty little skirmish that was- (richard640) Jan 21, 15:13 It looks like the surrogates of the Fed and the Treasury came into the petro market the last hour and tried to break the mkt. They chose a great day-if crude had actually closed down a lot it would have been a sigificant negative technical development. It still may be but I am heartened. It looks like real demand was discovered on this pull back- The smart money that came in and bought did NOT want to wait to see if there would be downside follow through on Monday when they could get it cheaper- we may still be in for a sizeable correction but there may be a chance we will just continue up. That's how I see it-no guarantees.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.

Andy, this doesn't sound like Iraq lost 75% of it's production.

http://www.marketwatch.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CoiFN0b8ZtJiXmt mXnJiY&FQ=oil&Title=Headlines%20for%3A%20oil%0A

Reuters Story - January 21, 2000 12:35 NEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Iraqi Kirkuk crude oil is again flowing through the Iraq-to-Turkey pipeline and into tankers at the Turkish port of Ceyhan, a United Nations official on Friday said.

The official confirmed previous reports from shippers in the Mediterranean.

The flow had been stemmed by bad weather causing rough seas in the Mediterranean on Wednesday and Thursday. With storage tanks at capacity of about seven million barrels at Ceyhan, shipping on the pipeline was suspended until tankers could again load at Ceyhan, the official said.

-- rocky (rknolls@no.spam), January 21, 2000.

Yep rocky i saw that too on the downsteamer board.

Fact is, we don't really know diddly about production througout iran/iraq/saudi.

Maybe the CIA do but i doubt that too what with their field agent cutbacks. maybe the satellites that are'nt totalled by y2k can tell them.

What's Bush doing in Kuwait. And Richardson making overtures to Saudi?

Wassup wid dat?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.

sorry to be so ignorant, but who is harry schultz?

-- boop (leafyspurge@hotmail.com), January 21, 2000.

What't this about a .... Y2K power outage in the Mideast that is affecting oil production? WHAT POWER OUTAGE? Has anyone heard of it? Where in the Mideast? When? What caused it? ETC, ETC, ETC .... just minor little details. When we have a power outage, EVERYONE knows it.

-- Lee Barber (LeeeeeeB@webtv.net), January 21, 2000.