I thought this to be a great post on the current oil story. I agree with most of the thoughts. I hope this link works. Am having lots of problems on the net tonight.

Link

Message #468 on Humpty Dumpty if link dosn't work.

-- Ed (ed@lizzardranch.com), January 25, 2000

Answers

Excellent Ed!

A good read--very thought provoking indeed...

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), January 25, 2000.

or the web tv folks:

Hi Ed:

What bothers me is that we canot trust that it is not being manipulated by whoever. I think there is alot of manipulation going on, in the market, gold, and oil. If the big boys are working the system, then we are just along for the ride.

Not sure on the numbers, but on Dec.24, about 2 or 3 hours before the close of the markets, Great Britian put up something like 500 tonnes of gold up for sale.

Did they really think there would be any buyers around....most had already gone home. There is no way they could have gotten top money out of it, so either they made a very silly mistake, or they were trying to get a lower price to manipulate the market.

I am feeling like a pawn, probably have been all my life, but maybe at 56 I am just realizing it more.

Cheers to all......jim

ed yourdon e-@yourdon.com wrote: original article:http://www.egroups.com/group/humptydumptyy2k/? start=464 > Neenahep, > > You've raised some excellent points, and I think we're going to have to > depend on credible, knowledgeable people in the oil industry -- people > without an agenda or an axe to grind -- to help us understand what's going. > I saw the predictions made by D.D. Reed (aka DD1stlight or something like > that, right?) and had no way of knowing whether she was a person whose > information could be trusted. What she said sounded sensible, but that > doesn't mean that it was correct. It's a sad commentary on our society > today that so many people feel the need to remain anonymous in order to > avoid retribution of one kind or another if they make controversial > statements... > > From what I've seen on the news lately (including Tom Brokaw just a few > minutes ago), it apepars that OPEC is being set up as the "bad guy", and the > cold weather (which, as you point out, has only existed for the past week) > is being described as an unforseeable "act of God", so as to deflect the > public's attention, anger, and curiosity about what's really going on. > > Thus far, I haven't heard any who claims to be an oil expert giving loud > assurances that the refinery/production problems are going to be over > quickly, and that high prices and severe shortages are going to disappear > very soon ... which leads me to think that it could get worse before it gets > better. But I'm just like almost everyone else in this forum discussion, > just trying to make sense of the information I can find, so as to formulate > appropriate contingency plans. At least Y2K taught us how to do that! > > Ed > > From: neenahe-@aol.com > Reply-To: humptydumptyy2k@egroups.com > Date: Tue, 25 Jan 2000 18:44:28 EST > To: humptydumptyy2k@egroups.com > Subject: [humptydumptyy2k] Re: Ed, Forum, Oil > > > In a message dated 00-01-25 17:25:26 EST, you write: > > <<...it seems to me that someone -- either government, large-scale > users of oil, or someone else -- did not take the Y2K risks into account if > indeed they had allowed their inventory to fall to such low levels toward > the end of the year. >> > > Ed, > > The public has been given three explanations for the current shortage of > kerosene, heating oil, diesel, and gas: > > 1) cold weather > 2) OPEC production quotas put in place in March > 3) low inventory because of warm winters the last three years. > > Like you, it immediately struck me as odd that cold weather could be the > cause of these shortages, especially at heating oil companies. The weather > has been unseasonably warm this winter on the East Coast (where the > Northeast > ran out of kerosene this week), hitting record hgh temperatures several > days. > We have had only one week of seasonably cold weather. If heating oil > companies aren't prepared to handle one week of winter weather in January, > why are they in business? > > Others have pointed out elsewhere that OPEC is not the cause of the current > shortages. The other explanation given the public for the shortages ? low > inventories ? is just as suspect as the "cold" weather explanation. When the > public was being advised to top off their gas tanks (or at least fill them > half way) for Y2K, it does seem strange that the oil/gas companies went into > 2000 with low inventories, ignoring Y2K. That just doesn't make any sense. > > Everybody and his mother's uncle reported having contingency plans for Y2K. > One would expect the oil companies to have had record high reserves, > certainly not low inventory, going into a crisis which, in its worst-case > scenario, threated "the end of the world as we know it". The U.S. spent $100 > billion getting ready for Y2K, the Feds spent $50 million on a Y2K bunker. > FEMA and the Red Cross prepared for 50 simultaneous state emergencies. Why > would the oil companies completely ignore Y2K when the whole country and > economy runs on oil and was preparing for Y2K? Why would the federal > government allow them to ignore Y2K? > > Common sense suggests that the oil/gas industry did not go into 2000 with > low > inventories. It would be highly irresponsible if they did. If people freeze > to death in the cold as a result of their negligence, their reported failure > to maintain reasonable inventories in the face of Y2K (or even a normal > winter) might be actionable. > > It would not surprise me if the oil companies actually did NOT go into 2000 > with low inventories as the press is reporting. It will not surprise me to > find out later that low inventories are not the cause of these problems, any > more than "cold" weather or OPEC. My bet is that the loss of the Venezuelan > source and the enormous increase in problems at U.S. terminals/refineries > have caused these unprecedented shortages and record prices. > > The public had to be told about the higher fuel prices and the shortage of > fuel. It had to be given a reason for the shortages. The public has not yet > been told, as far as I have seen, about the Veneuzelan problem or the > problems at U.S. petroleum companies ? possibly the real reasons for the > crisis. Are these problems being hidden to keep the public calm, confident > of > the economy and the infrastructure? > > Problems at the petroleum companies may not be easily or quickly solved, > leading to a deeping of this crisis. If the public were told about the > problems at petroleum companies, it would be clear that we may be facing a > situation where we will soon be out of diesel and/or gas, just as the > Northeast is reportedly now out of kerosene until February 5 when ships > arrive from Europe. > > D.D. Reed, a 30-year gas/oil consultant predicted last Fall that there would > be NO gas available for the public at any price after December. She was > wrong > ? but maybe only her timing was wrong. If she had said that there would be > no > kerosene available at any price after mid-January, she would look like a > prophet now. There are reports that we may run out of diesel oil in the next > 10 days and out of gas in the summer. So perhaps she will be proven right > after all. > > People looking at the oil/gas crisis are eliminating the reasons gvien by > the > media (cold weather, OPEC, and low inventory) one by one, and coming to the > realization that the cause of the shortages is propably the record problems > at petroleum companies. > > The queston is: what is causing those problems? > > Neenah > > -------------------------------------------------------------------- -

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 25, 2000.

"Northeast is reportedly now out of kerosene until February 5 when ships arrive from Europe"

This would be disastrous! Are any of the tankers rumored to be diverted from the West to the East coast kerosene tankers? Anyone out there with info on this?

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 25, 2000.

Hokie, West Coast to East Coast kero arb? Its never happened. There isn't that big a kero market on the West Coast. It'd be cheaper to ship it from Europe or the Med/Mideast.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), January 25, 2000.

Hm. Thanks Downstreamer.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 25, 2000.

Downstreamer, there HAS been discussion in the mainstream press of tankers which WERE headed for the west coast being diverted toward the east coast. theoretically these tankers were kero/heating fuel tankers.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 26, 2000.

With the Monitor heaters (vented to outside) and emission standards/no burn days placed on woodstoves and fireplaces, a great many people in Far northern California ad Southern Oregon heat their homes with kerosene. I imagine many in the Pacific Northwest do.

The office where I work has Monitor heaters.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), January 26, 2000.