Fuel shortage on Long Island - cross post

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My friend who works in a home heating oil dispatching office is VERY concerned about Long Island NYC. She just got off the phone with me. Here is her report:

Heating Oil has hit critical stage on Long Island.

There were fist fights at the terminal today as our drivers tried to fill up and drivers were trying to but in line in front of each other. These are small owner operated oil delivery companies. The terminals will not be open until at least 5 p.m. tomorrow -- meanwhile the delivery companies are OUT of oil and can't make deliveries tomorrow in many cases.

Mobile is out of heating oil at the terminal for 5 days now. We keep getting fax that we can get 16,000 gal. a day -- but there is NO heating oil when we get there to load the trucks. So delivery trucks are driving around to different terminals trying to load up with oil -- they wait in line and then often can't get any or only a part of a load due to rationing. Some delivery companies are delivering only 50 gallons to each customer to try and keep everyone warm. Many homes use 5 gallons of fuel a day -- larger homes will use up to 10 or more gallons a day. There is a bad cold winter ice storm predicted for Sunday. We are being told that there are several tankers in LI sound full of heating oil but they can't be unloaded.

The tankers hold enough fuel for perhaps two days deliveries. The news is claiming that they can't be unloaded due to high winds but there is only a 20 mph breeze blowing.

Also she said that the President has been asked by Rick Lazio (city chair of energy and housing) to release some reserves of home heating oil and diesel fuel as well as financial assistance for the poor and -- he refuses to release any of it. Diesel fuel is up to $2.00 now. She asks "Why is this when Mrs. Clinton is supposedly running for office and his failure in this is certain political damage for campaign."

Frank Perdue not shipping chickens to N. Y. according to manager of a food store in LI. There seems to be no reason for this.

Nassau County is just outside NYC (is a part of Long Island) with a couple of million people -- the entire 911 is out. No reason has been reported.

-- Ed (ed@lizzardranch.com), January 29, 2000

Answers

If this is an accurate description of the heating fuel situation on Long Island and the situation continues to go downhill then things are very serious for all IMHO.

-- Ed (ed@lizzardranch.com), January 29, 2000.

Ed, this is tragic news! In grad school they taught that anytime things don't add up on the surface, look for a hidden agenda. This is used in my field of psychotherapy, but works remarkably well when applied to any system, so I fall back on this tool often.

The scenario you described if accurate seems planned. This is obvious by simply measuring--

-- -- the amount of EFFORT PUT INTO SPIN(folks being fed inaccurate info: there is fuel available for loading at these specific locations when there is not, when there is not; trucks are driving from tank to tank, and can only burn the (limited?) 2 dollar diesel for so long;...)

-- --VERSES EFFORT PUT INTO RESOLVING THE PROBLEM (telling trucks to drive to legitimate sources rather than eating up daylight chasing false leads).

The irony of this being Hillary's new stomping ground is significant. She alone has the connections to fix this with a snap of her fingers, yet does not. Clearly then we know this crisis is SERVING HER NEEDS.

How? 2 possibilities I see, but would be interested in your commenst:

1) She wants it too look bad, so then she can be recognized as riding in on a white horse to save NY from its bumbling leaders. Or,

2) NY is the new test site for implementing undeclared martial law (federal troops, or NG under federal command will rush in to "keep the peace" or assume ownership of the state's infrastructure.

Either way, I think this crisis has "Hillary" written all over it! What is Long Island to New York? The middle to upper-middle class. This class MUST be hit where they live if any fascist system is to be implemented on the small scale of NY city or state.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 29, 2000.


PS, also she alone has the connections and motivation to UNDERMINE the existing leaderships' attempts to address what should be an easy problem of distribution. The fact that the current leadership in NY is suddenly UNABLE to resolve this simple problem shows us that someone further UP the food chain with more power and conections is undermining their efforts.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 29, 2000.

I don't know about political conspiracy theories, but I do believe the crude and distillate shortages are still with us and are growing. It seems the media has blacked out any information regarding the true nature of the problem. As I mentioned before, I've heard from insiders that Y2K problems could propel crude to anywhere between $50 and $200/bbl in Q1 2000. Distillates, who knows? Now that the media has soothed our concerns regarding oil prices, I wouldn't be too suprised to see the complex move to new high prices in the next week or two as most of the weak longs have been expelled from the futures market. In fact, the there are serious supply problesm, the next leg up may well be something truly monumentous to behold.

Hang onto your hats!

-- Ishkabibble (ishman@home.com), January 29, 2000.


Hokie, another very distinct possibility is that these sorts of things are happenening not because Hillary or anybody else wants them to happen but rather because no-one (including Hillary) can't help them from happening.

Y2K-type events would be such root cause. Hillary, nor anybody else, can't keep these things from happening. These events are simply out of their control, and they just watch like you an me, except that members of TPTB will get blamed, not us.

Take care

-- George (jvilches@sminter.com.ar), January 29, 2000.



put out a page for Harbor Guy. He should be able to give us more information on harbor and shipping conditions...

-- mike in houston (mmorris67@hotmail.com), January 29, 2000.

"Slick" Hillary Clinton?.......naw, no way!

-- JB (noway@jose.com), January 29, 2000.

"Also she said that the President has been asked by Rick Lazio (city chair of energy and housing) to release some reserves of home heating oil and diesel fuel as well as financial assistance for the poor and -- he refuses to release any of it."

There are no reserves of home heating oil and diesel fuel. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is CRUDE OIL --- unrefined. The crude has to be refined into diesel, home heating oil, gasoline, kerosene, etc. There have been refinery fires, explosions, and maintenance outages (both planned and unplanned). Search the links from the past two weeks for the lists of refinery problems. We don't seem to have a shortage of crude in the US YET, just refined diesel, kerosene, and home heating oil.

-- slza (slzattas@erols.com), January 29, 2000.


Petroleum Industry Problems
has been updated to show the clear correlation between low petroleum distillate stocks going into the winter with the unusual number of refinery and pipeline explosions during late 1999, using slides from the Dept. of Energy's latest report. This is VERY interesting. There is no proof that this is cauased by Y2K, but I'd challenge anyone out there to prove that it's not.

In any case, it is very sad news for people undergoing a harsh winter.

-- marc1a (marcia@nckodokan.com), January 29, 2000.


Hokie

As to possibility #2: I remember there being a report prior to the CDC that a "pilot" program was being instituted in Buffalo whereby only a certain number of employees from each business of - like - a 100 employees would be designated critical infrastructure employees. They would be issued special permits to be out on the streets, etc.I thought this program was to start during the second week of Jan.Someone opined that the reason for this time frame for the start of this program was the possibility of fuel shortages in the NE.Whaddya think?

-- JR.MINT (duck@andcover.brr), January 29, 2000.



To clarify my previous post: not that the civil authorities in Buffalo would actually begin retricting citizens freedom of movement in JAN. but that some sort of specific training for thos designated employees would begin by then in case there was some sort of municipal emergency at any future date and time.

-- JR.MINT (duck@cover.brr), January 29, 2000.

To clarify my previous post: not that the civil authorities in Buffalo would actually begin retricting citizens freedom of movement in JAN. but that some sort of specific training for those designated employees would begin by then in case there was some sort of municipal emergency at any future date and time.

-- JR.MINT (duck@cover.brr), January 29, 2000.

Jr Mint, The original of your post was the correct one your "Clarifications" are inacurate. Referral to the original press release shows that this is for those times when travel is restricted by things such as weather, lack of fuel, etc.

These passes are for getting into the city when the city is closed to travel for safety. Before people get to the martial law scenario, the question in Buffalo is how do you keep buildings from freezing and damaging when there are travel restrictions and people normally can't get into town. They determined that if they offered critical infrastructure passes to a specific number of people in each company/office in the city, then they would be able to keep most of the people off the streets so the streets can get cleared of snow etc.

For those who haven't had the pleasure of spending a year in the cozy confines of Buffalo, the city and county close at LEAST once a year because of snowfall. It USUALLY takes 2 to 3 times what Old Git and her neighbors have gotten this past week. (Typically 3 feet in a weekend with 40 or 50 mph winds are required.)

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 29, 2000.


Ishkabibble --

Any other details or figures from your inside source that you'd feel at liberty to share with the Board? Thanks

>"<

-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.tree), January 29, 2000.


JR.MINT and Chuck, this is the first I've heard of passes in NY. Wow. Hmmm, wonder what will finally come out in the wash? Time will tell.

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 29, 2000.


Can someone please explain to me why there is a shortage of distillates? Are'nt they a byproduct of making gasoline. There's still plenty of gasoline but a shortage of distillates. Why is this? In my little town of Farmington, ME,(10,000 people) the Big Apple convienience store has been out of Kero for a week. The last price was 2.29/gal. Diesel is 1.99. At the Irving station they still have kero but may run out if the smaller stores keep running out. Their kero price is 2.59/gal. Diesel 1.89/gal. So again. What's the deal? Why no distillates but plenty of gas? Perplexed, Jim

-- James McCusker (jpmccusk@exploremaine.com), January 29, 2000.

Maybe be Bogus Crap, until I wait tomorrow a.m. to contact my relative, who lives there. Could be another hype, akin to the gas lines in Jacksonville, FL (Pure crap). Ain't Internet Honesty the greatest thing, since perked coffee.

-- Truth Seeker (for@all.com), January 29, 2000.

Dear Truth Seeker, I am a true Christian and do not lie. If your relative living in this area would like to call me to verify my statements, my phone number is 207-778-6712. Again, can anyone answer my questions about the distillates? Still perplexed, Jim

-- James McCusker (jpmccusk@exploremaine.com), January 29, 2000.

James, James, you force my hand to call the Inlaws. I will do it, they will hate me, this late hour. A POX, UPON YOU, for this task. Will post, after conversation.

-- Truth Seeker (for@usall.com), January 29, 2000.

See thread

Regarding the question about why we don't have a shortage of gasoline, I think home heating oil, kerosene, and diesel are refined separately. The DOE report referenced in the above thread mentions "low sulphur distillates" which makes me guess that gasoline doesn't fall into that category. So perhaps it's a separate refining process. ANy oil refining experts out there?

-- slza (slzattas@erols.com), January 29, 2000.


Let's try link again: thread

If that didn't work, here it is to cut and paste: http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002RpM

-- slza (slzattas@erols.com), January 29, 2000.


Let's try link again: thread If that didn't work, here it is to cut and paste: http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002RpM

-- slza (slzattas@erols.com), January 29, 2000.

James, I spoke to them (Inlaws), they have noticed no difference in Gas prices, they think I am kinda stupid, and they discussed internet gossip, while continuing to play cards, THEY have a life, unlike those of us, who saw a small but possible window, of life disrupt. Guess I have to get a new life: so hard, after spending so much effort and energy on feeding tha children.

-- Truth Seeker (forus@all.com), January 29, 2000.

Dear Truth Seeker, The prices I reported were concerned with distillates (kero and diesel) not gasoline. The whole reason for my posting was to find out why gasoline seems to be in abundance, remaining pretty stable pricewise, while the price of distillates, kero, diesel and heating oil are soaring. Heating oil is now 1.69/gal in our area (Farmington,ME). So let me repeat my question. If, as I understand it, distillates are a byproduct of making gasoline, why is there a shortage of distillates but still an abundance of gasololine. Thanks for a reply, szla. Still perplexed, Jim

-- James McCusker (jpmccusk@exploremaine.com), January 29, 2000.

Truth Seeker, ask your in-laws about kero and diesel, NOT gasoline. Gasoline prices in Maine have stablized around 1.35 a gallon for regular at the self-serve stations. Kerosene in Waldoboro Maine last night was $2.65 a gallon at the Maritimes Farm store, diesel at Irving was $1.99. I've seen it as high as 2.09, as low as 1.89, in the last week. Home heating oil (diesel without the tax) is running $1.45 or so, last I heard, and that was down ten cents from last week's high. A guy filling a five-gallon gas can with kerosene in Waldoboro was absolutely shocked at how fast he hit $10. "All I want is enough to heat my smelt shack." He better catch a lot to make it worth the price.

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), January 29, 2000.

James, looks like we cross-posted. Sorry to hear heating oil is so high in western Maine. It seems to have eased a little bit along the coast. Glad I bought that extra firewood, tho.

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), January 29, 2000.

James, I gotta call out, for help, from another Human expertise, on this matter. Damn, if I know.

-- Humans folks (help@one another.com), January 30, 2000.

Gas and the other grades of fuel come off from different levels of the cracking tower (someone else can get detailed as to which level which is higher or lower etc). the POSSIBILITY is that as the refining goes the crude may not support all grades of fuel at one time.

Particularly as the refiners can choose how the mix breaks down, so they make more K1 and 2 in fall and more gas in spring and summer.

C

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), January 30, 2000.


Chuck, Thanks for the possible explanation. Still perplexed, Jim

-- Jim McCusker (jpmccusk@exploremaine.com), January 30, 2000.

Perplexed --

This was my understanding from the local petro wholeslaer when we spoke mid-summer last year over the course of my purchase of 450 gals of K-1: kerosene is distilled once a year, and once a year only, based upon demand from preceding years. Refineries are not geared to produce this product year around, and cannot flex their processes to accomodate surges in demand. It may be -- as has already been suggested -- that the current stores of kero are diminished in view of the last two NE winters being very mild, and requiring littel heating oil/kerosene -- this could contibute to the spot shortages New England is sufering now. It does not however explain why deisel is getting so expensive -- except that there have been stories of some dealers dying there deisel red and re-sellign it as heating oil. This switch-out could put further pressure on deisel prices.

>"<

-- Squirrel Hunter (nuts@upina.cellrelaytower), January 30, 2000.


Thanks squirrel, I'm not so perplexed anymore. Jim

-- Jim McCusker (jpmccusk@exploremaine.com), January 30, 2000.

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