BEIJING: China-U.S. ties troubled despite release

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RPT-ANALYSIS-China-U.S. ties troubled despite release



By Andrew Browne

BEIJING, Jan 30 (Reuters) - By abruptly ending criminal proceedings against U.S.-based librarian Song Yongyi and putting him on a plane to freedom, China has removed a thorn in U.S. ties ahead of a congressional vote on its entry to the World Trade Organisation.

But the glow from Saturday's goodwill gesture was likely to be short-lived.

Even as Song was on his way to the United States, and the American ambassador to China was proclaiming himself "delighted", fresh problems were brewing over Taiwan -- the biggest potential flash-point in China-U.S. relations.

Song's detention on charges of leaking state secrets only added to a raft of problems faced by the administration of U.S. President Bill Clinton in pushing through Congress an agreement with China on WTO.

His unexpected release, even before his case came to trial, makes Clinton's job easier, but only slightly.

"Saturday's development eliminates one problem, but I wouldn't say it does much to change the tone one way or another," said one U.S. official, who declined to be identified.

He said the vote on granting Normal Trade Relations, a step needed for China's WTO accession, "will become a kind of proxy on U.S.-China relations".

"We are expecting lots of questions to be raised on all issues," the official added.

TESTING BEIJING'S PATIENCE v High on the question list will be Taiwan.

On Sunday, the People's Daily newspaper raised the heat further ahead of Taiwan presidential elections in March with a new warning against independence, saying "those that play with fire will be destroyed".

This follows a blunt warning by Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen that "Taiwan independence could only mean war between the two sides".

The last time China and the United States went eyeball-to-eyeball over Taiwan was in 1996, when Washington sent in two aircraft carrier groups as China conducted missile tests off the island during the last presidential vote.

China has lately shown more restraint, reacting only with angry rhetoric -- and half-hearted military manoeuvring -- to Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui's provocative comments last year that the island would only deal with Beijing as a sovereign equal.

But Republicans leaders in Congress appear determined to push Beijing's patience over Taiwan.

At a sensitive juncture in the WTO process, they are pressing ahead with a vote on Tuesday on legislation to boost U.S. military ties with Taipei.

The Clinton administration opposes the so-called Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, which would establish direct military communications between Washington and Taipei, and expand U.S. training of Taiwan military officers.

Beijing has predictably warned the legislation, which faces a presidential veto, could damage ties.

SONG'S RELEASE: A CYNICAL PLOY?

U.S. labour groups are also on the war path, fearing a new flood of cheap Chinese exports after China joints the WTO will destroy jobs.

And human rights groups are up in arms: the cynical interpretation of Song's release was that China was again trying to score political points through "hostage politics". Beijing has in the past used such releases to deflect international criticism of its human rights record.

A harsh crackdown by Beijing on the Falun Gong spiritual movement, its stepped-up repression of the underground Protestant church, and its slap at the Vatican by appointing new bishops all hang over the WTO vote.

Washington's decision this month to sponsor a resolution critical of Beijing at a meeting in Geneva of the U.N. Commission on Human Rights in March infuriated China, and at the very least will draw renewed attention to rights abuses in China.

The WTO vote in Congress is now being held up chiefly by Beijing's market-opening talks with the EU.

Last week, China concluded a hatful of similar negotiations with Norway, Iceland Uruguay, Peru and Cuba.

The longer China's trade talks with the EU drag on, the greater the danger the WTO vote in Congress will become mired in anti-China politics that have become an inflammatory issue in U.S. presidential elections.

TIES ON THE MEND
Still, Song's release marks another modest victory as China and the United States attempt to patch up ties after U.S. jets bombed China's Belgrade embassy in May.

The WTO agreement last November after 13 years of fruitless discussions was itself a major milestone.

Last month, the two sides reached agreement on U.S. compensation for the Belgrade bombing, a move that went a long way to healing the scars.

And last week a top Chinese general ended a visit to the United States as part of efforts to restore military ties that were severed by the air strike. U.S. Defence Secretary William Cohen said he would visit China.

) copyright 2000 Reuters, Ltd.

-- Possible Impact (posim@hotmail.com), January 30, 2000

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