Anybody (with a contract) getting home oil rationed yet?

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My folks have lived in the same suburban house in the Philadelphia suburbs for 33 years, with a 270 gallon oil tank. They sign up for oil every summer on a budget plan. For the first time ever, yesterday when it was time for the fill up they were allocated only 100 gallons. My own oil company said recently the independents were hard hit, and folks without a signed contract might have trouble, but regulars would be OK. Now I'm wondering. ( sure glad I got this Y2K firewood). Anybody else with a budget plan/contract getting rationed yet? where do you live?

-- wondering (if@i'm.next), February 03, 2000

Answers

We received a letter from our heating and oil company requesting that we keep the thermometer at 68 degrees during the day and move it to 62 at night as a means of conserving. Later found out from an insider at the company that they were only allocated 1700 gallons of oil a month and that they cannot get more. They have tried to find a backup oil supplier but no such luck!!

-- Just a friend worried about (doggone@high.prices), February 03, 2000.

There has got to be a news blackout on this! Shouldn't this be the top story on the national news? I am really sorry for all those who have no heat, or not enough. If this goes on through the summer we are screwed down here. The last two summers have been so hot in Texas we have had no crops, scrawny cattle and MANY people have died from the heat(mostly the elderly). I have heard stories about New York's heat, too. I am NOT trying to belittle your need for heating oil, just realizing that if this oil shortage does not end soon we will ALL be in the same boat. Got preps?

-- Just Curious (jnmpow@flash.net), February 03, 2000.

Not trying to be a smart ass here,so don't light the blow tourch for my butt.

So far, by average standards this nation is having a rather warm winter. The South West is much warmer than usual. There haven't been any truly major snow storms. What we've had, we've had before. Friends in the North West are claiming warmer than usual weather. Now, this leaves us with the North East, East Coast and South.

All of a sudden, there's little or no oil (in any form) the price is skyrocketing, there's "allocations" (rationing!) and there's not a word of this on the news. I truly extend my wishes to our cousins in Australia, and all on the East Coast. But, something is very remiss here. And no I am not hollering "Y2K" the sky is falling, what I am saying is that there are some major forces at work and it's a hellva lot more than a computer glitch. Our present weather is much less than years past with little or nothing going on with heating. A bit of cold and snow (so to speak) and everything's gone to hell. Is there another way to spell F I S H Y?

-- Richard (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), February 03, 2000.


Approx. 15% of electric nationally is nuclear. Approx. 40% of Eastern Seaboard is nuclear. Approx. 35% of Delaware is nuclear. Nationally, power use is at 50% of capacity during winter. This goes to 85% during summer. On a good day, Delaware is running at 85% continuous. Summer it tops 115% of capacity. Some of the above numbers have changed by now. That is why I'm saying approx. We get the extra electricity from Limirick in Philly, Salem in New Jersey and extra from Calvert Cliffs, MD. All have had problems. It will be a hot summer if these power plants are not working perfectly. We had 4 blackouts this past summer. Many brownouts. All due to overloaded local grid. Note: The back up gen. for local power company is oil fueled.

-- Surrounded (hiding@thefirststate.com), February 03, 2000.

Surrounded-Limerick went down twice already, Dec 31 and a few weeks later. Know anything about PECO? Oh man, time for a pool and a solar powered filter, eh?

-- electrons (turn@me.on), February 03, 2000.


Richard, et. al.:

OK, looking at this situation on one level: We have international oil and energy suppliers who have adopted JIT just as far as their mathematical models said they dared, then maybe a bit further in order to boost quarterly earnings. We appear to have oil companies who did some of their 'fixing' starting last Spring, probably along with annual maintenance (witness previously-reported surges in refinery fires, explosions, and so on). All the fixing could not get done, or was not budget-approved, so the only solution was fix-on-failure. We appear to have energy transportation (pipeline) companies who are having SCADA-based problems, though how severe I cannot even begin to guess. We have a financial sector with major trading houses and major banks apparently on the wrong side of derivatives(?) in bonds and perhaps in other areas, including maybe commodities such as oil, and precious metals. We may have Saudi oil port problems in play. We may have Sov oil production problems we're not aware of. We appear to have at least diesel shortages associated with electricity shortages in more than one old Sov Block state. We may have Western Europe about done drawing down some of its allegedly-stockpiled (for y2k) oil resources.

And I don't even think I am near considering the "fishy" odor yet!

Somehow, I keep thinking to myself, 'what question are you NOT asking' (that I should be asking myself and seeing how the answer rolls around). The only answer I can offer to this last is 'confidence'. Were I, e.g., Robert Rubin, I sure would have argued against allowing any hint of a reason for us little folks to begin to lose confidence in this bubble economy.

Over to you more informed heads!

-- Redeye in Ohio (cannot@work.com), February 04, 2000.


Just had my tank topped off this morning and chatted with the oil guy about the whole situation (they know I prepped for Y2K since they installed and filled my above ground tanks).

He said they (his company) contracted for oil last fall so they are still able to get it, but they are being limited to two truck loads a day at the storage terminals (they have no storage facility of their own). He said those without contracts cannot get oil at any price and that the two nearby HESS terminals are operating (if you can call it that) at or near empty.

He said he thought it was all being manipulated and that there was plenty of oil somewhere but that it was just being held back. I asked if he had heard about all the refinery outages, pipeline ruptures, etc. and he had not. I then took him inside and showed him over a dozen articles about refineries going down, etc. I printed a few out for him to take back to the office for his brother.

When we were done he shook his head and said "Damn, I don't know what I should do now. I've got 700 homes to service and many want 400 gallons. I can't give them that because others will go without, but if I don't, I don't know if I'll be *able* to give them anything next time." Seems those articles made him think that there might not be ANY oil available in a few weeks, contract or no.

He also said that he was concerned about getting paid in a timely manner if he delivered 400 gals to a home. He said "If I give someone 400 gals at $1.80/gal then I've got to bill them over $700, and when I do that people just put the bill on the side 'till spring. If I give them 200 gals then the bill will be around $350 and I'll get paid next month. Either way I still have to pay my bills today".

Like the man said, may you live in interesting times....

-TECH32-

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), February 04, 2000.


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