I am posting this in a new thread for anyone who (like the person below) thinks that the airline incidents we have seen this year are "normal". Following is the last part of another thread dealing with yet another aircraft in U.S. air space experiencing problems (loss of cabin pressure). The following is all from the NTSB's site:

---

Carl, just found your link for such records on the NTSB website. At first glance, looks to me like Jan. 2000 was an average month for accidents/incidents as compared to Januaries from previous years.

http://www.ntsb.gov/Aviation/months.htm

-- (air@sickness.now), February 04, 2000.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Which is why "first glances" aren't worth the paper they're printed on. I did a more detailed look for January 99 and this is what I found. Out of all the "incidents" on the page, only 10 involved large aircraft. All the others were Cessna, Beech, Piper etc which is not what has been posted here. Small planes have trouble all the time - usually due to pilot error or lack of maintenance, etc.

As far as the large planes, there were 7 Boeing, one Douglas DC-9 and 2 McDonnel Douglas (MD) incidents and out of those, look at the details below:

Boeing
757 - Incident - Proximity to another plane
727 - Incident - Cargo door left open
727 - Ground crewman injured hand on door
767 - Hard landing (no mention of mechanical failure)
727 - Engine trouble
747 - Engine fire on ground
747 - Incident - Encountered clear-air turbulance

Douglas
DC-9 - Incident - Encountered wake-turbulance

McDonnel Douglas
MD-82 - No info (says was investigated by Italy)
MD-11 - Smoke in cabin

It should be noted that likely only 3-4 of these incidents would have even been posted on this board, the rest aren't even significant or due to mechanical failures. Also out of all 10, not one involved fatalities.

So to say that what has occurred so far this year is just par for the course is 100%, completely wrong.

-- Steve Baxter (chicoqh@home.com), February 04, 2000.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

January 1998 Info:
Again, only large planes included.

757 - Tail impacted ground on landing (sounds from report like weather/pilot error)
DC-6B - Aborted takeoff, crashed off runway
767 - Flight diverted due to pilot illness
DHC-8 - Vibration, returned to airport (ground maintenance screw-up)
727 - Airplane & tug collide on tarmac
757 - Turbulance - coffee pot falls injuring one
767 - Electrical fire
MD-600N - Hard landing due to pilot trainee
MD-80 - "Firm" touchdown
707 - Operational error involving 4 separate planes including airforce one

Summary:
Again, no fatalities. Possibly 3 of these incidents would have been posted here - *if* they had been reported in the media at all, and *if* someone on this board happened to come across the article.

-- Steve Baxter (chicoqh@home.com), February 04, 2000

Answers

Egypt Air 990 with the "nut" who trusted ALL to Allah...Rear Horizontal Stabilizer...

Maybe, just maybe, a real prayer when facing a real problem...

-- Z (Z@Z.Z), February 04, 2000.

Steve this has probably been suggested on this forum before. The Egyptian crash seems to be eereily like the one off California. The plane went into an un-controllable dive and seemed to indicate a control problem (unless the pilot did it intentionaly) That plane fell several thousand feet was brought temporarally out of the dive and then crashed. It appeared that there was a heroic effort to save the plane, but it failed. My question: Are identical stabilizer controls provided to different plane manufacturers from the same outside bidder?

-- Citizen (lost@sea.com), February 04, 2000.

My Dear Mr. Baxter,

Sir! If there is but one accident (and you are unfortunate enough to be a passenger on said air craft) that ONE accident is ONE too many sir...

Back in the mid 80's, a death in my family nessitated that I travel by air to go to the funeral (it was my father's). While on the return trip, I remember thinking that the plane's wing elevators (flaps) where making, what to me were unusual noises every time the pilot (s) engaged them for flight modifications.

After I debark from the plane,I met my wife, who had come to pick me up at the air port. We spent some nearly two hours traveling to our home at that time...In any case sir..When I sat down at home and turned on the television. The head line news of the day was that an (the) airliner I had flown on, had encountered a micro burst at the Dallas air port (it's next stop after mine). And every one on board, I believe, was killed....I am sure I do not have to draw lines for you. (still wonder if it was the wing problem "noise" or a micro burst).

"As for me...I shall finish the Game"!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), February 04, 2000.

Steve:

All of this discussion of incidents got me to thinking. I fly on a regular basis. What do I remember? Lets go back. When I started flying, it was on something called a DC-3. For you younger ones, this was a contraption that vaguely resembled an airplane. Back then, every flight was an incident. A thunderstorm in a DC-3 was something to remember.

I have been on a plane that skidded off of an icy runway. One that fell through the tarmac [yep, over the wheels; couldnt move]. There was the time that the tires blew on landing or the time all of the oxygen masks came down [turned out to be a faulty sensor]. There was CAT [over the cowboy state] that required a landing for inspection.

My very favorite was on a small commuter line in Washington. I was in the front row and separated from the cockpit by a curtain [which was open]. I hear: Pilot; what does that light mean? Co-pilot; hell, if I know, we had better call someone and find out.

There are more, but what is my point. After all of these flights, I am in awe at how few problems have occurred.

Best wi

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), February 04, 2000.

In all of this the Kenya Airways crash (and the two SR Group crashes) appear to be getting lost in the shuffle. However, I think the following article is worth a glance, reminding us of just how difficult it is for some countries to face a crash of this magnitude.

Black Box from Kenya Airways Jet Recovered

(for educational purposes only)

"By TIM SULLIVAN

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast (February 4, 2000 11:46 a.m. EST http://www.nandotimes.com)

Divers on Friday brought up a "black box" of a Kenya Airways jet that crashed into the Atlantic with 179 people aboard, leaving only 10 survivors.

The device was the flight data recorder, said a French aviation official who spoke on condition of anonymity. The cockpit voice recorder remained submerged, awaiting more search efforts.

Investigators are hoping the "black boxes" - which are actually bright orange, despite the name by which they are commonly known - will shed light on why Flight 431 plunged into the Atlantic moments after takeoff Sunday from Abidjan's seaside airport.

Witnesses said the Airbus 310 never appeared to reach sufficient altitude as it headed out over the ocean, just a few hundred yards away. They heard no explosion and saw no flames.

The black box was found in about 150 feet of water nearly two miles offshore.

Investigators located the device Thursday through its electronic signal and carried on the search with amateur divers, French firefighter divers based in Abidjan and divers from the Kenyan navy. They said this former French colony did not have the manpower or sophisticated equipment to mount an extensive underwater operation.

The divers, nearly all of whom are members of an Abidjan diving club and volunteering their time, applauded when the box was hoisted aboard the sport-fishing boat they were using. They described a macabre underwater scene of bodies strewn along the ocean floor and bits of wreckage everywhere.

"They're all over the place in the sand," Ivorian rescue diver Abi Yaure said. The plane was "completely opened up," he said.

Many of the divers appeared shaken by the scene as they return to port.

Earlier, the divers had brought up a brown leather purse that they'd found amid the wreckage on the sea floor, and one diver also brought up a few broken pieces of the aircraft.

Only 86 bodies had so far been recovered from the wreckage of the plane, which was bound for Lagos, Nigeria."

-- Rachel Gibson (rgibson@hotmail.com), February 04, 2000.

Rachel:

Maybe in the general press, but not with someone who must fly to Africa. My point is that flying is a gamble; but it is a gamble where you win 99.9999 or more % of the time.

Best wishes,,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), February 04, 2000.

Shakey:

I probably misunderstood your post, but in no way was I trying to trivialize plane accidents. Like you said, even one is a tragedy for many, many people both on and off the aircraft.

That being said, I am not a total stranger to near-accidents myself. Not only have I nearly been killed a few times by horses (even got trampled by one once, and believe me, you *don't* want to ever be flat on your back looking up at nothing but horse-legs), but I am also a skydiver. One time when I was jumping from a Cessna 182 at 10,000 feet my chute malfunctioned on deployment and wrapped around me like a blanket.

I fell like that (at terminal velocity - 120 MPH) for about 5000 feet until I could unwrap myself, cut the damn thing away and deploy my reserve. I ended up in a farmer's field about a mile away from the hanger just barely missing a round-bale (the reserve chute was an old, round army style where "steering" is almost non-existent and you hit the ground like a rock).

So like I said, I am not trivializing accidents. God knows I've had more than my share.

-- Steve Baxter (chicoqh@home.com), February 04, 2000.

Z1X4Y7

I understand what you're saying: "Statistically, it is still safer to fly than it is to use other methods of transportation."

That said, the odds seem to be changing slightly. For example, according to an FAA report, in 1998 the U.S. had no commercial aviation-related deaths. Last year and this one are unfolding with a different story.

-- Rachel Gibson (rgibson@hotmail.com), February 04, 2000.