oil prices top $30 a barrel!

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http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGI2OGSWP4C.html

Anyone have any ideas on how high this could go?

-- noops (supply@and.demand), February 15, 2000

Answers

I hate to say this but I'll bet it will continue for awhile. Opec will have to hear that North America will start moving very rapidly to electric cars, alternate fuels, and making better use of our current supplies. They will lower prices if they feel that we are about to force the politicians to get North America self sustaining.

Justhinkin@somethoughts

-- justthinkin com (justthinkin@oil.com), February 15, 2000.


Electric cars?

Until someone adds up the number of btu's it takes to build one, fuel one and maintain it for 100,000 miles.

If it was viable it would already have happened.

-- Tom Beckner (tbeckner@xout.erols.com), February 15, 2000.


It's amazing how viable things get when the cheap alternatives become unavailable.

-- waiting (just@wait.com), February 15, 2000.

I wonder how folks in 2050 will view our concerns over $30+/barrel oil. They may well be looking at $500/barrel if we've truly just passed our production peak. Personal vehicles as we know them will probably be a forgotten memory by then...except for the rich, of course and those well connected, politically or otherwise.

-- Perspective (GottaThinkThis@Through.com), February 15, 2000.

Dick Moody is predicting that Oil could be in the High 30's within the next Six Weeks.

The following is from his posting on Sunday the 13th over at Downstreamers Petroleum Forum.

I have great respect for this man. I've followed his postings for several months now and he's Right more often than he's Wrong!

[ Downstream Ventures ]

[ Petroleum Markets ]

Author Comment dickmoody Global user (2/13/00 1:49:21 am) Reply Technical Charts analysis -- $31-$32 near term/ upper $30s in 6 weeks? ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- The crude oil market continues to look strong on a technical basis. Both the March and April contracts still showed healthy price-chart formations and technically it looks like Friday's action set the stage for a new "leg" going up on the market. This should now set the stage for a technically "healthy" price push above the $30.00 level on the market. The Directional Movement Index with ADX is still bullish on three levels:

Daily Bar Charts Weekly Bar Charts Monthly Bar Charts

Weekly chart formation appears to be indicating a "flag" was formed signalling a move to about the $31.00 to $32.00 level. Flag formations will usually complete it's full measurement capacity (about 80% of the time) and the Weekly Charts "flag" pattern of measurement for the move suggests a run to the $31.00 level probably within the next 2-3 weeks IF it follows thru. The Flag-pole itself is about $5.00 in length basis the April, 2000 contract. Taking that length and linking it to the bottom price point of the flag at about $26.00 indicates that adding $5.00 to the $26.00 would give you about a $31.00 level within the April Contract.

The oscillators like the DMI also suggest this as the positive line had been dropping of late on the Daily chart basis but Friday's action reversed the downward trend and the main ADX trendline had not dipped, so the bullish trend does seem to be intact. This means the positive line downward movement was simply normal profit-taking in a healthy bullmarket movement. Mean-while the bearish negative-price line continues to bounce on the bottom area with little indication of a reversal of trend to a "short-selling" opportunity.

Friday's action also is bullish because it closed at a 45 bar high which is very bullish and increases the likelihood for higher prices ahead.

The Commodity Channel Index oscillator just recently gave a "buy" signal and it generally will miss the first part of a price move. This tells me that we've got a LONG ways to go before prices top out. The CCI has been known to give a buy signal after the market has made a third of its price move. If the CCI history holds up it means that there is probably another $10.00 left in the move, which means a movement to the upper $30's level and probably over the course of the next several weeks I would suspect.

The MACD has still not issued a new "buy" signal yet which means again that this market is likely to see significant price gains yet and thus confirming the CCI, the DMI and the flag formation measurement.

VOLUME Indicators ... with the mkt putting in a new 45 bar high and a 9 bar high and volume increasing, this too is signalling more new highs yet to come in Crude.

Some of the oscillators are showing that the Crude is a little overbought here, but that doesn't necessarily mean much in the kind of market atmosphere as we have now. Under current conditions, oscillators tend to show overbought conditions far sooner than the market actually remedies the "over" situation.

Look for oil prices to continue to climb on a technical basis.

ON A FUNDAMENTALS Basis:

The news on Friday that Saudi Arabia is cutting shipments to the USA by 25% in March is also bound to be very bullish for Crude pricing. This development could turn out to be a driving fundamental factor for trading on Monday and perhaps provide underlying support for the entire week of trading.

Comments, opinions, discussion?

[Note: My comments are not intended as trading advice nor as recommendations. These are simply my own observations and opinions which can certainly be wrong at times]

the crude one Unregistered User (2/13/00 8:47:18 am) Reply dick moody ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- thanks again dick for your insightful analysis. I hope to hell you are right cause i have 40 way out of the money calls expiring in april.

KenRomanov Global user (2/13/00 2:48:28 pm) Reply Dickmoody ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- That's an excellent analysis. In a Feb. 8th interview Don Wolanchuk said crude on its way to $33. Don was #1 market timer 14 years in a row and has been correctly bullish on crude for the past year. And let us not forget the late Armand Hammer's $100./bbl crude forecast. Wouldn't surprise me to see larger, if not limit up gains in crude in the not to distant future.

rumourmonger Unregistered User (2/14/00 11:35:39 am) Reply Dick Moody request for rumour ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- Dick, I saw on another post that you wanted info/rumour from pa's in sa. If so, I have tidbit for you. Not to be sent via text. Please provide point of contact to dick_moody@vallier.com.



-- Zdude (zdude777@hotmail.com), February 15, 2000.



Sorry about the formating folks. Heres a Link if you want to read Dicks posting over at Downstreamers Forum.

http://pub3.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventures petroleummarkets.showMessage?topicID=514.topic

-- Zdude (
zdude777@hotmail.com), February 15, 2000.


With Kaua'i electric prices, gasoline would probably have to be in the $4-5 range before it could begin to be economical... Unless, of course, I could find some decent, inexpensive solar panels for charging...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), February 15, 2000.

Telecommuting could solve the oil consumption issue if the PHM's could just stop picturing you working in your bunny slippers, laughing and having fun.

-- Tom Beckner (tbeckner@xout.erols.com), February 16, 2000.

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