More disruptions coming? Space Weather Industry Targets Sun Storms

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Saturday February 19 2:02 PM ET

Space Weather Industry Targets Sun Storms

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - This year should be one of the worst for solar storms -- surges of charged particles that knock out satellites, power grids and even garage door openers -- but a whole new industry has popped up to try to prevent the worst disruptions.

No one can predict which month or week will be worst, but the sun is at the height of its 11-year cycle of storms, which means the Earth can expect several barrages of excess charged particles.

``We are literally talking about most of northern Europe, most of North America, that can be impacted by space storms,'' John Kappenman, a senior engineer at Metatech in Duluth, Minnesota, told a news conference at a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

Both government and private industries have geared up in the past two years to prevent the most serious disturbances. During the last solar maximum in 1989, Quebec's power grid was knocked out completely, throwing six million people into the dark for nine hours.

At that time experts could at best make a 50-50 guess about when a blast from the sun was on its way.

But now NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft, orbiting a million miles (1.6 million km) from Earth, has a magnetometer and a particle detector aboard that can warn of the solar bursts about 45 minutes before they reach the atmosphere.

Its information can help to protect not only electricity networks, but satellite users ranging from broadcasters to automated teller machines and even pager companies.

``These systems are arguably more vulnerable than ever before. We are not going to grow out of these problems any time soon,'' Kappenman said.

He says his company has signed an agreement to help protect Britain's National Grid Group (NGG.L), the owner and operator of the electricity transmission system in England and Wales.

Solar storms disrupt electricity grids by causing extraneous currents that cause the flow to fluctuate. Careful management can prevent this from knocking the grid out, but power system managers have to know it is coming.

Metatech takes the warning of a flare and runs a computer model of the client's particular power grid, identifying the areas that will be vulnerable.

A power company can respond by making sure enough electricity keeps flowing in that particular area, either by increasing the flow or reducing the demand.

Metatech charges a base rate of $5,000 a month, but utilities and companies can also ask National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for information from ACE.

Ernest Hildner, director of NOAA's Space Environment Center, said NOAA probably would never know who it saved from trouble or when, ``unless someone tells us over a drink''. ``People don't reward champions,'' he told reporters.

Also in the public area, the Aerospace Corporation is working to warn operators of both government and private industry satellites. ``We are not at the point where we can say this satellite will experience this effect,'' said David DesRocher, senior project engineer at the Colorado Springs- based group.

But they can advise on how a satellite's attitude -- its relative angle to the Sun -- can help or hurt. During a solar storm, charged particle build up on the outside of a satellite, and more powerful radiation can penetrate deep inside, causing both immediate and long-term damage.

The effects can be disastrous. In 1998 the Galaxy IV satellite was disabled by a solar storm, silencing 80 percent of North America's pagers, knocking financial services offline and stopping credit card transactions.

It is not just machines that are affected. Mark Weyland, a project manager at Lockheed Martin Corp., said they were keeping a close eye on the six astronauts currently orbiting in the space shuttle Endeavour.

Radiation from a solar storm can easily reach the equivalent of several chest X-rays.

``We had a space weather event happen a few days ago,'' Weyland said. It was not bad enough to force the shuttle astronauts to take shelter in the airlock, the most shielded part of the shuttle, but NASA officials are keeping a careful eye on the crew.

``This is one of those risks they'll carry the rest of their lives,'' Weyland said.

Aircraft crew are also at risk, especially those flying the polar routes. Frequent flyers may be, too.

Travelers may soon be able to log onto a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Web site for more information, and they can call a hotline established by Dr. Robert Barish, founder of In-Flight Radiation Protection Services Inc., which tells callers about possible health risks.

-- K. Nolan (infosurf@yahoo.com), February 19, 2000


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