JJ, First i want to say when i looked up the other stories are really the same scmp article so its pointless to link em (i admit error). But you are incorrect that its is a false story(link 1) just on the baisis that Tiawan is not being attacked. The article state's that the plans were headed to the China's fujian province and Tiawan. An attack is not under way Because the planes are in the Fujian province along with the most massive builded up of chinease since the cultural revolution.(link 2)

1- www.scmp.com/news/china/article/fulltext_asp_articleID-20000320014927297.asp 2- www.abc.net.au/news/newslink/nat/newsnat-21mar2000-57.htm

Next you say Tiawan does not depend on the US for its defense. Who does Tiawan count on? China. NOT! (link 3)

3- www.taipeitimes.com/news/2000/03/20/story/0000028494

This next article gives some good points on why china shouldnt attack Tiawan but still maybe forced too.(link 4). p.s. Tiawan strait is 90 miles not 190 miles.

4- www.itn.co.uk/world20000320/032008w.htm

Russia increases military spending (link 5)(mentioned in article)

5- www.stratfor.com/services/giu2000/031500.ASP

On vietnam i said that the US was talking to vietnam on bases. (link 6) (bottom paragraph)

6- http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20000314/wi/cohen_vietnam_9.html

Russia seeks tie's with N. Korea, Iraq & Vietnam (link7)

7- www.stratfor.com/services/giu2000/020800.ASP

China's nuke threat & fishing vessels (link 8). p.s. while looking for these links a read a report about a major increase in fishing vessels by islans close to Tiawan. I did relate the two till later so i dont have a link ill post it if i come across it. (i concede they may not be related)

8-www.vny.com/cf/news/upidetail.GFM?Quid=73104

I never claimed to predict the future and say a invasion will happen. There is, however, plent of events that need close watching. I dont think we should engage in constructive talks while they are threating to nuke us, regardless on wether the really will or not.I am not just concerned with this area (its just one thats been hot the last few days). I am concerned with the new international order that is forming since last sping. I believe the world is more unstable and closer to a big war now than it has been since world war 2.I believe IF it does happen it will happen before the US elections. This not fear mongering, it it present day global reality. do you know why all these thing are occuring?

-- boo (boo@hom.com), March 21, 2000

Answers

Boo, I agree that things in SE Asia are worth watching. Our government evidently feels so as well, trying to get more friendly with the Phillipines and Vietnam. I did not realize that Russia still maintained a naval base in Cam Rahn Bay. As I remember, the last US air base, I think it was Clark AFB in Manila, got closed not very long ago, within the last ten years or so. No wonder the US government is over there paying a neighborly visit. Oh, those names again, Cam Rahn Bay, South China Sea, Subic Bay, brings back the early 70's for me.

-- Ma Kettle (mom@home.com), March 21, 2000.

boo:

First, thanks for providing the links. If everyone would do this when they post articles in the future it would help all of us.

The article on the planes in southern China was another one of those second hand reports from anonymous sources. In times of crisis, it's doubly important that we be sceptical of these types of reports since there's often a ulterior motive on the part of the persons making the report. If China was really moving large numbers of aircraft or had an attack underway, do you think they'd allow this to be reported?

The Taipai Times article is mostly quotes from an American saying how important he thinks our support of Taiwan should be. The Taiwanese, on the other hand, are asking for more advanced weapons to defend themselves. I know that Taiwan both hopes and expects the US to intervene in the case of an attack but my point in all my postings is that Taiwan is not defenseless even if no one helps them.

The ITN link doesn't work so I can't comment on that article. You're right about the distance from China to Taiwan being 90 miles, not 190 - my finger slipped on that one.

The Stratfor link on Russia increasing it's military spending says no such thing. There is one vague reference to the fact that Putin MAY strengthen Russia's defense forces in the future. The important quote, if you're worried about China's ability to wage war, is this:

"The Times of India reported March 13 that Putin suspended the transfer of sensitive military technology to China."

Don't you think this may be a warning to China about starting anything in Taiwan? Why, from this article, did you draw only the conclusion that Russia was drastically increasing military spending and overlook the other news about China?

The Yahoo link to Cohen's visit does not even mention establishing bases in Vietnam. In fact, a quote from the article reads:

"The first U.S. defense secretary to visit the country since the Vietnam War ended arrived in Ho Chi Minh City on Tuesday night from the capital Hanoi, where he held successful talks with government leaders on modest, step-by-step improvements in U.S.-Vietnam military ties."

Did you think that modest improvements means establishing military bases?

The Stratfor article about Russia seeking ties with N. Korea, Iraq & Vietnam is even more problematic. The reference to North Korea is a visit by one Russian official that may or may not result in a treaty of friendship. The references to Iraq and Vietnam are from visits by one ultranationalist politician who is trying to reach agreements on his own initiative. The article states that the Russian government may not even be aware of his activities.

So, I evaluate the contents of these articles very differently than you did. You say:

"I am concerned with the new international order that is forming since last sping. I believe the world is more unstable and closer to a big war now than it has been since world war 2.I believe IF it does happen it will happen before the US elections."

You have read into these articles what you needed to support your existing view of the world. For all I know, you may be right but I'm not willing to believe that until I have evidence. You are, in reality, posting statements that support YOUR fears for the world without the facts being in alignment with your statements. This is the very definition of fear mongering and that's what you're doing.

-- Jim Cooke (JJCooke@yahoo.com), March 22, 2000.

I treid to find recent links to support my claims, but i have watched events closely since last number and i didnt have the time or frankly dont know how to find all that info. I still disagree with fear mongering as i didnt add any personal commentary till somebody responded to the article i was linking. Russia saying the stopped sending china sensetive military is just a "carrot" to the west and is a lie as the just recently sent china two nuclear capable destroyers. I didnt overlook that info, thats my point many countries ties are being changed and test because its a time of unstablity in the world, thats my point. I still dont know how you missed cohen talking to china about a navel base in the last paragraph of that story. and finally i am not saying i am right, never did. I just think that something is not right and could explode if we dont treat it.I have asked many question that you wont or cant answer, and all you do is go back and try to debunk what was said.my biggest concern of all is that our goverment continues to deal with china after they threatened nuclear war and the human right abuses, i just want are goverment to say to china straiten up or we are not going to deal with you.You maybe right to a certain extent about me reading into certain articles, but after reading hundreds of articles i think i have at least a sense of what is going on and may read a new development to fit whats has already happened. what evidence do you need to be conviced a nuclear bomb falling on the us?????? (not saying this will happen). sorry for the severe sloppyness of this but i wanted to respond, had little time. bookmark stratfor.com good intelligence. trust me i hope you are correct. this board discusses current event you still have not made a case for fear mongering.I wish you would try to explain what was going on instead of just debunking everything. later next post will be lots nicer. later jj

-- boo (boo@home.com), March 22, 2000.

Dear Boo--I'm in agreement with you on this. 2:30AM EST today MNSBC had two experts talking about the possible threat to Taiwan and how the US should respond. One of the experts said "this is getting very ugly very fast." Today----absolutely NOTHING on any of the news programs! The FAS website is a good place to check for facts.

-- stillhere (didn't@voteforClinton.com), March 22, 2000.