WIRE:04/06/2000 13:28:00 ET World oil price to slide below $24/bbl by December-EIA

WASHINGTON, April 6 (Reuters) - World oil prices will gradually decline from the current $26 a barrel to $23.50 by the end of the year as more oil from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil enters the market, the Energy Department's statistical agency said on Thursday. The average price of imported crude oil paid by U.S. refiners is expected to decline from $26.75 a barrel in March to about $25 in June, the Energy Information Administration said in its monthly short-term energy outlook. By late December, prices will be $23.50 per barrel, and continue to decline to about $21.50 by the end of 2001, the agency said.

The EIA said its price forecast assumes OPEC's oil production -- excluding Iran and Iraq -- will be 21.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter, about 700,000 bpd above first-quarter production levels. That would be nearly 500,000 bpd above the cartel's production target of 21.07 million bpd.

If Iran is included, OPEC's oil production increase in the second quarter is expected to be 900,000 bpd, the EIA said. The agency's forecast assumes another 100,000 bpd increase in OPEC (including Iran) oil production in the third quarter and an extra 500,000 bpd rise in fourth-quarter output.

Iraq's crude oil production averaged about 2.3 million bpd during the first quarter and will increase throughout the rest of this year to about 3 million bpd in the fourth quarter, the EIA said. Because of export sanctions, Iraq's output is not included in OPEC's production targets.

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20000406_2511.html

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), April 06, 2000

Answers

Haliburton's spare parts inventories--while being able to supply everything requested around the world in the oil fields so far--are said to be growing thin.

I wonder how much longer it will take for actural shortages to develop--shortages that will knock all these optimistic predictions about oil production into a cocked hat.

-- JackW (jpayne@webtv.net), April 06, 2000.