The Heat is on, the Electricity is off Thursday, July 6, 2000 Broiling summer temperatures and growing electricity demand, combined with an ongoing power industry reorganization, may mean customers in some parts of the country will have to limit electric use to avoid blackouts as the hottest months of the season arrive.

AP/Wide World

Conservation measures are already being pushed in New Hampshire, where a nuclear power plant is out of business for a few days.

And in California, a heat wave and problems at a power station are forcing electricity distributors in California to scramble.

Federal officials and the power industry blame some of the problems on the lack of adequate transmission lines, antiquated switching systems and uncertainty about the direction the industry is going, including the quickening pace of deregulation.

Next week Congress will consider legislation aimed at speeding up the restructuring of the $220 billion electric utility industry, including provisions that would impose new requirements to help ensure reliability. The Senate last week approved a bill that would establish a new organization that would monitor and enforce reliability rules.

"The existing scheme of voluntary compliance with voluntary industry reliability rules is simply no longer adequate," says Sen. Frank Murkowski, R-Alaska, chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources committee.

But even if Congress acts, it will come too late to ease power supply concerns this summer.

Power problems that have already surfaced in New England and California and "could be an ominous sign" of things to come with the hottest months of the summer ahead, said Energy Secretary Bill Richardson. He has toured the country for a series of electricity reliability meetings in recent months.

"The view (at these meetings) was unanimous. If we don't work together and fix the problem, we'll all end up sitting in the dark," Richardson said Wednesday. He said he was particularly concerned about potential power outages in the Southwest, California and parts of the Northeast, although other areas could be affected if there are unexpected breakdowns at power plants or an unusual heat wave.

Spurred on by the growing economy and increased reliance on computers and other electrical devices, electricity demand has been increasing about 2 percent a year, while generation capacity has lagged. The safety cushion between expected demand under normal circumstances and maximum electricity generation has been narrowing and now is less than 14 percent of capacity, according to industry figures. Not long ago it was nearly 25 percent, said a senior DOE official.

Signs of problems have already shown up this summer.

For most of last week, California was under a "stage II power watch" in which customers were asked to keep down electricity use and power was withheld from some commercial users because of tight supplies as temperatures soared in the 100-degree range. Two weeks earlier, rolling blackouts moved through the San Francisco Bay area after some power generators failed during a record 103 degree heat wave.

Although milder temperatures have eased the strain on the state's electricity system, the problem isn't over, said Patrick Dorinson, a spokesman for the California Independent System Operator, which manages the state's flow of electricity.

"Everything is on a day-to-day basis," he said. "We expect another heat wave next week."

In New England, a New Hampshire nuclear power plant went down for a few days last month, triggering an appeal throughout the region that users conserve electricity. The plant quickly resumed operation and cooler weather arrived, ending the threat.

Jim Sinclair, a spokesman for the agency that manages New England's electricity grid, said the region's reserve didn't have to be used but advisories went out to conserve electricity as a precaution. Still he predicts "there will be days this summer when we need to dip into the reserve tanks" for electricity.

Others do not rule out the possibility of rolling blackouts in New England should temperatures soar and some unexpected power outage  such as the Seabrook plant's brief shutdown in New Hampshire  strike in tandem.

Even areas such as the Midwest, which has more power plants this year and most of its nuclear plants operating, could have problems if they have a severe heat wave and some unexpected power problems, senior Energy Department officials said.

Meanwhile almost half of the states have moved toward adopting  or are planning to adopt  a more competitive electricity market, putting additional strains on the system, many industry experts believe.

"A lot of electricity is being bought and sold," said Bill Brier, vice president for communications at the Edison Electric Institute, the trade group for investor-owned utilities. "The system is stressed."

 The Associated press contributed to this report

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-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), July 06, 2000