I'm posting several articles forwarded to us, for the archives.

Fair Use/Education Research Use

"Possible Force Majeure in the United States" http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002Tr8

"Well, isn't that special?"

Looks like somebody is dropping some broad hints of real Y2K trouble without actually using the dreaded "Y" word. Could somebody tell me when "Y2K" became a curse word in PR circles? Was it during the rollover? Somehow, I musta missed it. Whatever the case, its obvious that nobody is gonna ever admit to a crisis being caused by Y2K but if ever there was a clear cut inference for Y2K without it being stated directly, this must be it.

"having meter rate issues"

Isn't this what the embeddeds experts had been saying would be one of the ramifications of Y2K? I recall that as being the case. In fact, some of the "experts" had indicated that the end of January going into February could prove to be highly problematic as "buffers" overflowed and the end of month transition brought hidden problems to the surface. Looks like this is what has happened here on the first day of the new month. After all, pipelines had that different SCADA configuration from power companies.

Refineries were also different from the power companies in SCADA configurations and usages.

Now, it seems to me that we've had an inordinate amount of pipeline problems in every part of the world in both summer and winter conditions (both sides of the equator). Plus, no one can deny that refineries are having problems. The only thing being denied is that all of these problems are Y2K related. EXCEPT for the fact that the oil companies never have denied that specific problems are Y2K related. At least not that I recall. They just ignore the issue.

You have to be really pigheaded, blind or stupid not to begin to put 2+2 together here to realize that you've got a Y2K formula for petro-industry problems that has been percolating for the past month. At least if you read all the "expert" stuff posted here and elsewhere last year about the oil industry and Y2K. It seems to me that maybe all those folks saying the oil industry would have Y2K problems and that they'd show up maybe later in January or early February were right after all. Looks like a 'thousand cuts' situation to me.

Course, some would say I should stick to market forecasting. (some newbies wouldn't know I'm a retired commodities trader specializing in technicals trading). Which I know some are probably gonna ask me, "how high the market." Well I've posted from time to time at Downstreamer's Forum on this but right now, to me the market oscillator readings indicate the market is digesting the recent gains. The NYMEX also doubled the margin requirements meaning traders have to double the money they plunk down for a position. That has a tendency to "chill" a market for a few days and sometimes will cap a market run if that run was just wild speculation. In this case, though, we've got REAL shortages of commodities and margin req's can only do a temporary chill. The market is looking to consolidate its gains. It's still running far ahead of its support and just broke thru a resistance line created by recent market price peaks. This indicates the market is NOT finished with its Bullish run, but simply pausing to catch its breath before plunging ahead. I still see a run back to $30 as being very likely and probably $32.00. Will it get to $40? I dunno. It's possible technically but the real driving force will be fundamental factors. Given the fact that inventories are so low (Whyizzit?) and we're gonna come back into peak season with a lot of refineries going down for maintenance (and doing so a little earlier than usual and for longer than usual) indicates are much greater likelihood for price gains to remain at these recent higher levels.

There are a lot of little signs that IMHO are indicating the shortages in product are hi-tech related and NOT old equip. or equipment run to hard. Some of the pipelines problems are with relatively new construction projects.

Its also NOT weather related as you'll see in the newstory above sentence ...

"Demand at the terminals in the Midwest is not even as strong as in a normal winter," ... and despite all the arguing about prior history vs current stats, one thing does stand out: that in January, the oil industry just doesn't have problems unless its severe weather, which most of the current problems showed during mild temps or in far southern climate. BUT ALSO ... didja notice that its happening around the world? Asia, South America, Middle East, Africa. Just a swarm of problems. Yet everyone wants to swallow the excuses that its Opec, or equipment being run too hard or weather or ____ fill-in-the-blank. Well, this is not the situation, and the above case is a prime example where someone didn't provide sufficient excuses and we're seeing the tell-tale terminology that tips us off that we've got a SCADA embeddeds problem occuring just when the "experts" figured would be a window of opportune problems.

So the Polly gloaters were wrong. It's not over. All of the doomers who threw in the towel were wrong too. It doesn't look like TEOTWAWKI, but it ain't gonna be BITR neither. (Dr.Schenk take notice-- doesn't look like you were completely wrong and neither was the polly camp completely right). 20% jumps in fuel ain't BITR. Folks shivering because they've no heating oil ain't gonna remember it as a BITR either. And we don't know how many may have died from Y2K and it's related effects. But the media and the pollies have done a good job of destroying the doomers all the while ignoring that the glass is half full of problems after all. It's amazing how perceptions can distort reality.

Y2K is already bad for the folks who've had to suffer in this oil crisis related to Y2K. Still looks like a "3" right now moving towards a "4" or a "5." Imagine that. And the pollies call this forum "Oilbomb 2000"... hey maybe that's because Y2K IS "bombing" the oil industry, but like the proverbial tree falling in the forest, the media is not paying attention to record it as Y2K. That would be politically incorrect, I guess.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), February 03, 2000.

Here are a few selected items on the energy sector.

The URL on refinery and pipeline incidents:

http://nckodokan.com/charts/crude.html

It is not being kept up to date.

Late breaking news items that include energy sector information that are and/or could be Y2K and embedded system-related are often found on the following websites:

~ the Grassroots Information Coordination Center website at http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=Grassroots%20Information%20Coordination%20Center%20%28GICC%29

~ the TB2K Alternative website at http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=TB2K%20spinoff%20uncensored

Glitch Central at http://www.ciaosystems.com is another very interesting website. Problems related to Y2K and embedded systems are tracked there.

-- GICC sysop (y2kgicc@yahoo.com), July 18, 2000