Energy Sector concerns - for the archives

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One quick announcement for those of you who've been inquiring to me privately about when I'd do another review of the oil industry. I am in process now. In fact I'm waiting on 2 critical sources to respond and confirm some information that has just come to me that is shocking. This information comes from a very, very high level exec within a top major oil co. I can't provide details yet. I want to provide one final article and not scatter everything out. I'm hoping to get final incoming feedback within the next 24/48 hours. When I do, we'll come here with it ASAP. One thing I'm trying to do is get some sources to permit full name disclosure of themselves and their companies. (I'm hopeful but I'm not holding my breath). So keep watching, I hope I can tell you a lot more soon.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 20, 1999. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Downstreamer, I can't say a whole lot on this, but I have a credible source from a very well-placed source indicating the Gulf is "non-compliant."

I can't go into more details at this time but this individual has been a leader in the industry for embeddeds. A world-expert. I'm working to get a public statement from this person. You'd know his oil co. name if I gave it. I just don't know that he could be convinced to go public with what he knows. His comments are "chilling" to say the least. I will post more on this later if I'm permitted. We shall see. I've got a lot of other sources also reconfirming various other aspects of this situation but none with the credibility of this one key source. Patience.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 20, 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well folks, that wraps it all up in a nutshell. The entire Persian Gulf Oil situation is now confirmed as "toast" once you read between the lines. That explains a lot for the reasons why we're seeing such odd behavior out of the administration. They know the score now. I wonder, don't you, when they really knew? I just have a hard time believing that they didn't know all of this about embedded chips problems until just recently. They've had to know for perhaps a couple of years or a year and a half when Y2K began to really hit the radio talk-show circuits. Even a 2 year lead time to get people prepared would have been enough to really pump up the economy in a very healthy manner and still had time to have forced business to make unpleasant decisions. Ultimately, the blame rests with the Clintonistas and their cronies in and out of government and the corruption they created. It's not just Democrats, Republicans are equally guilty too. They are fellow cronies with Clinton. After all, Senator Robert Bennett is a a Republican senator and he chairs that Y2K committee. It's all so sad, so very sad.

I guess this story like many tells us that it may be a lot, lot worse than we feared, if the chips fall where they may. What are your thoughts? Is this story pivotal in the oil story status? -- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 20, 1999 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I not only stand by those earlier posts, but I had them confirmed again this afternoon, in more detail. I'm not going to reveal more, because it could put people at risk. I know, BS unattributed rumors... Only they are not rumors. But I don't care. It's too late to do more than grocery store kind of preparation.

No Saudi oil for quite some time. Get used to it. Fact. -- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), December 20, 1999.

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If everything else was 100 % remediated and tested worldwide and just this oil situation remained, this, by itself, is enough to shock and debilitate the world economy. Thanks for your great work in getting to the truth. I'm getting very jittery, like this can't be happening.

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), December 20, 1999.

END OF GREENSPUN POST>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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IF we get word publicly of say, problems in Saudi Arabia, like what Ed Yourdon had in that email from a Saudi remediation source about certain oil facilities being "toast" over there... If that pans out to be true and carried in public newswire services...that would explode the oil market. Who knows how much upside it would fire instantly, maybe a buck or two a barrel within minutes if not seconds. Frankly, I don't expect it, but just mention it to cover the bases

Good points. However, if this is a market that cannot make delivery, all bets are off. In a short term sense, indeed the market is overbought. The NYMEX increased traders margin requirements last night. This is a signal from the exchange (and most likely the gov't) that these prices are beginning to hurt. Do not doubt they will try everything and anything to save their bubble.com.

I doubt u will hear anything regarding bad news from the official media. Who knows? This whole market and society is in denial. The bubble dreamers do not want to burst their fantasies. The markets are totally political now (ever since 1987 in fact) and the politicians will do anything to save their skin. (source forgotten)

================================================== And here's what he was telling others:

http://millennium-ark.net/News_Files/Newsletters/News990222.html (Feb. 99)

Sure didn't seem too concerned about remaining "anonymous" and naming sources. Couldn't be he wanted to remain anonymous here because he was afraid of being laughed off the site. Could it?

"BTW, on Y2K... My sources in the oil industry tell me that the oil biz is likely to be reduced by 80% or more... Very little crude oil will get pumped and the tankers will likely not be compliant and the pipelines are likely to go down. Sources...including a brother who works in management for a major oil company tells me... much of the oil industry could be virtually shut down for a year or so. Minimum of 90 days. Hearing other stories from a source high up within the Fed's that they're expecting 2-3 years of massive disruptions... and complete loss of the power grid for an extended period. We're hearing stories here in whispers that a minimum of 3 days of downtime on the GRID itself... but... more reliable sources indicate the grid will likely go dark and stay dark for 90 days minimum. We just had a major power plant blow up...here in Kansas City...and folks close to the investigation understand the plant was doing Y2K testing!!! Elsewhere another city... a chemical plant blew up...also related to Y2k testing. I'm sure you have heard by now the stories of the Army doing weird training exercises for martial law down in Corpus Christi Texas. It's really starting to become a bizarre atmosphere here in the States.

Well lots of strange stuff, I just thought you might want to know if you didn't already... about SOHO last night. And it's looking more and more like NASA has been lying all along about SOHO.

RC =====================================================

UNITED NATIONS, Jan 19 (AFP) - UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has warned of a possible "major breakdown" of the Iraqi oil industry if the Security Council continues to withhold spare parts and equipment. In a letter to the council president, US ambassador Richard Holbrooke, Annan said Iraq's oil industry was "in a lamentable state" requiring "prompt remedial action." The letter was dated January 14 and made public on Tuesday. Annan repeated a previous recommendation that the council increase from 300 million dollars to 600 million dollars the amount Iraq could spend on rehabilitating its industry in the six-month phase of the oil-for-food programme which ended on December 9. He said he would await the report of a group of six UN experts who arrived in Iraq on Monday before deciding whether or not to recommend a similar increase of the allocation under the current six-month phase. The experts -- two from Britain, and one each from the Netherlands, Jordan, Norway and Russia -- are due to stay in Iraq until January 31, Annan said in a separate note. The Security Council removed the ceiling on Iraq's exports of crude oil when it revised its nine-year-old sanctions regime on December 17. But restrictions remain on the use which Iraq may make of its oil revenues, and all contracts for imports must be approved by the council's sanctions committee. On Wednesday the United Nations said that Iraq had submitted a total of 2,003 contracts worth 1.11 billion dollars for oil parts and equipment under the three most recent complete phases of the oil-for-food programme. The sanctions committee had approved 907 of these, worth 453.3 million dollars, and put another 448, worth 224.6 million dollars, on hold, the Office of the Iraq Programme said. The other contracts are either pending the committee's decision or have not yet been processed due to insufficient information provided by Iraq.

In his letter, Annan said the deterioration of Iraq's oil facilities was affecting the health of workers and causing serious environmental damage as well as damaging oil wells, some of them permanently. If it continued, he said, it "may also cause a major breakdown in Iraq's oil production and export capacity." Annan appended to his letter a detailed list of spare parts and equipment drawn up by an independent expert who visited Iraq under contract from the UN from December 15 to 21. The expert, from the Dutch firm Saybolt, quoted the ministry of oil in Baghdad as saying that Iraq had averaged production of 2.75 million barrels a day in the six months to December 9. Of this, it exported 2.16 million barrels per day. The expert quoted the ministry as saying this level of output had been achieved "under a regime of severe risk management" rather than a "planned programme of good reservoir management." He forecast output of between 2.5 million and 2.6 million bpd in the current six-month phase of the oil-for-food programme, with exports of between 1.95 million and 2.0 million bpd.

In his letter Annan said that "unless applications for contracts for key items of oil spare parts and equipment are approved expeditiously and are made available and commissioned within a short time frame, the production of oil is likely to drop, even under a regime of 'severe risk management'."

Copyright 2000 by Agence France-Presse (via ClariNet) =======================================================

Dan Rather on CBS News just reporting that due to the severe weather, oil prices will be higher and there may be a shortage. Coincidence? -- lparks (lparks@eurekanet.com), January 20, 2000 ========================================================

-- GICC Sysop (y2kgicc@yahoo.com), July 18, 2000


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