On the Dunc signs for Everton thread I forwarded the following hypothesis:

"Before anyone argues that he's only worth half a player because he misses half the games, let me remind you that half as good a player playing every game would still never achieve as much. It's the same as how 2 men can carry a grand piano but one of them can't carry half a Grand Piano on his own. Ferguson is class. Andersson was not. Dunc scored more goals for United in half as many appearances as Andersson. Forget the price, forget the wages, concentrate on the ability. "

In the spirit of openness I thought it worth checking whether or not this theory holds true. Behold the Softie Usefulness Quotient!

Player	Fee	Wage	Weeks	Appearances	Goals	Cost per Appearnce	Cost per Goal
Andersson	#3,000,000	#15,000	76	32	4	#129,375	#1,035,000
JDT	#2,500,000	#15,000	52	33	4	#99,394	#820,000
Dunc	#7,000,000	#40,000	104	41	12	#272,195	#930,000
Shearer	#15,000,000	#40,000	208	148	86	#157,568	#271,163
Dunc 2*	#7,000,000	#40,000	156	71	22	#186,479	#601,818
Dunc 3*	#7,000,000	#40,000	156	81	32	#163,457	#413,750

*Dunc 2 is worked out by giving him the same poor attendance as last season and the same number of goals. Dunc3 gives him a full season and 20 goals.

Even allowing Dunc another season of injury, you can see how the overall costs tumble over time. He already looks like a bargain compared to Andersson and would be pushing Shearer in the value for money stakes (it's that 15mil price tag and the season Al missed that does it). Needless to say, the value we would gain from a full season and 20 goals is dramatically demonstrated.

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

Answers

Now subtract the sell-on fee and total the wages over their time at NUFC and re-calculate. You should be able to come up with a "prime selling time" for each striker :))

While you're doing that I'm off for a tetanus and polio booster.... I hope they don't react with alcohol!

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

The wages are already calculated into it.

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

Brilliant, Softie. Not to carp, though, but can you modify this to reflect the fact that til August 1999, Al was only earning #25k ((-:

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

Okay, here it is again with the sell-on (or potential sell-on) deducted from price. I am only allowing Dunc a 4.5mil sell-on despite our insisting on 7mil. I've adjusted Shearer's wages...don't get me started on win bonuses and goal bonuses alright!

Player	Fee	Sell On	Wage	Weeks	Appearances	Goals	Cost per Appearnce	Cost per Goal
Andersson	#3,000,000	#2,000,000	#15,000	76	32	4	#66,875	#535,000
JDT	#2,500,000	#2,200,000	#15,000	52	33	4	#32,727	#270,000
Dunc	#7,000,000	#4,500,000	#40,000	104	41	12	#162,439	#555,000
Shearer	#15,000,000	#10,000,000	#32,000	208	148	86	#78,757	#135,535
Dunc 2*	#7,000,000	#4,500,000	#40,000	156	71	22	#123,099	#397,273
Dunc 3*	#7,000,000	#4,500,000	#40,000	156	81	32	#107,901	#273,125

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

There you go Geordie, according to the Softie Usefulness Quotient (soon to be in use all over the world:-)), we would be better off selling Dunc at the end of this season rather than now regardless of whether he has a good or bad season.

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

And here it is one last time with the extra 1 million for Dunc for making more than 20 appearances and with his sell-on set at 7million as YBR announced the other day:

Player	Fee	Sell On	Wage	Weeks	Appearances	Goals	Cost per Appearnce	Cost per Goal
Andersson	#3,000,000	#2,000,000	#15,000	76	32	4	#66,875	#535,000
JDT	#2,500,000	#2,200,000	#15,000	52	33	4	#32,727	#270,000
Dunc	#8,000,000	#7,000,000	#40,000	104	41	12	#125,854	#430,000
Shearer	#15,000,000	#10,000,000	#32,000	208	148	86	#78,757	#135,535
Dunc 2*	#8,000,000	#7,000,000	#40,000	156	71	22	#101,972	#329,091
Dunc 3*	#8,000,000	#7,000,000	#40,000	156	81	32	#89,383	#226,250

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

Of course, if he managed only 20 appearances and the outside world pretty much gave up on him as an injury liability meaning he could be sold for #2M at best, then he would cost #562,000 per appearance. In fact it'd be worse, as nobody would pay his wages and we'd be left with another hard to shift player. I really can't see him staying even remotely injury free - it goes completely against his history. The insurance companies obviously think the same.

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

Err. excuse my crap calculation. Deliberate mistake of course. urm hmph. HAs he really had 41 appearances already? Surely not?

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

Excellent stuff Softie. I knew it would be dangerous giving you that spreadsheet. (-;

Never mind all this sophisticated analysis. Take away Dunc's sell on value. Double his wages. Say we paid #20m for him. Say he never plays again and only ever played in one match - Man Utd at home.

Worth every penny. (-;

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

Suggests to me we should be trying to swap DF for JDT!

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

No matter which line you look at, it's a f***in' lot of money per goal. Sheesh. What aboot Kets? Or say Nick Anal Car at the Arse?

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

I notice you left Frank Pingel off your top strikers list Softus. An oversight surely ?

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2000

If we were going to use this thing properly we would have to put in the next four seasons for Big Al at 40k per week, average 30 appearances and 20 goals (35 and 25, 35 and 20, 30 and 20, 25 and 15) and no sell-on value at all. That would certainly alter things. JDT needs Beardsley, Tino and Ferdinand for company to compare for value. Cole would walk away with the value for money table as I think we would actually have a profit on each of his goals!

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

Softie, I was thinking baout that last night. If you think about it - assuming Alan plays for another three years, the 15 Million looks incredibly good value. Comapre with Batistuta who has say thre yaers left and cost Roma 22 mills (still can't get over that, by the way).

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

Dougal, I don't think you can really compare EPL teams with the Dayglos. They have a totally different finance/wage structure. It would be totally unbalanced. Better for Softie to keep it with in the EPL - unless he has more "Sleepless in Howden" nights ahead than the average.

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

I haven't kept this spreadsheet but might do it properly some time with the exact figures (I had to guess wages and have no idea about bonuses and also need the figures for merchandising sales - including players' names on shirts). It only makes sense to run it with players over a period of time. Shearer would have been worth 20mil when Ronaldo moved to Inter (just before Al was crocked) so that would have been the optimum time to sell if you are only interested in the business side.

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

It's always difficult to evaluate a player's contribution simply on the basis of goals, although when a player is scoring sackloads then he must be doing something right. (Shearer, Cole)

I'd love to see a simple league table of players' records in the Played, Won Drawn Lost format that we see for teams. This might throw up some interesting findings as well as causing many sleepless nights on Willington Quay (although obviously, sleepless nights on Willington Quay will not be at a premium during the next few months).

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

Well it just so happens Jonno that the table which can provide that information is already in existence :-) I shall post the results over the weekend if you like.

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

>>>>>I shall post the results over the weekend if you like.

Are you busy today then? (-;

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

Oh alright then, I admit it, it's official, I have no life....I'll probably post them this evening in between watching Big Brother :-(

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

If, as seems likley, Shearer does not move onto another club - hist cost per appearance and goals etc would presumably rocket etc

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

Ketsy (wage: 20K) cost -#1700 per appearance. Cost per goal is -#10,769 ;-)

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

Ooops, that is ofcourse utter nonsense. The right figures for Ketsy: Cost per Appearance #26097 and Cost per Goal #233846.

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

I mean Cost per Goal is #164615. (Not my day this one.)

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000

Don't worry Jussi, it's a meaningless spreadsheet which will do nothing but cause arguments anyway. We all have an idea about players' value: I reckon Shearer is twice as useful as Ferguson (he's ceratinly as good a player as he is but appears more often) so it's no surprise that he cost more, and if Dunc's wages were correspondingly lower, then nobody would be talking about selling him

-- Anonymous, August 11, 2000