Potential Oil and Rig Famine for 2001

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Wednesday August 23, 3:49 pm Eastern Time Press Release OneOffshore Reports That Three-Year Industry Spending Freeze May Trigger Potential Oil and Rig Famine for 2001 STAVANGER, Norway--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 23, 2000--Petrodata Research, the forecasting division of OneOffshore Inc., today announced new findings that suggest that high oil prices may have come too late to avert both a failure in non-OPEC oil supply growth and a new rig market shortage in 2001.

``High oil prices mean oil companies are awash with cash again and have been so for over a year now,'' said Petrodata analyst Maarten van Mourik at a press reception held at the Offshore Northern Seas Conference. ``The new cash has not been spent on drilling wells, however, but on defending their balance sheets, buying back shares and competing with high growth technology stocks. Upstream activity has been in the doldrums and is only now picking up. That slow recovery may not have a positive impact on non-OPEC oil supply in the immediate future.''

According to van Mourik, the current market situation and underlying pressures clearly point to a repeat of the 1995-1998 cycle. The damage to oil supply in 2001 was done in 1998/1999 by deferring new field projects and by accelerating the decline of big old fields. Now the portfolio of new developments has dried up so much that it is hard to project increases in non-OPEC oil supply for 2001, van Mourik predicted. The consequence is that growing oil demand will have to be filled by OPEC, which has its own problems in growing capacity.

In addition to the impact on the oil supply, van Mourik said the spending collapse over the past two years is also affecting the deep-water rig market. Oil companies' plans for quickly developing their treasures and growing their oil production may therefore turn out to be too optimistic in the face of an imminent equipment market squeeze.

``Poor day rates have made contractors wary of committing to further building of new rigs,'' van Mourik said. ``As a result, we predict that the available fleet will be insufficient again shortly to cope with increasing demand and develop the potential of all those deep water fields. The ultra deep water segment, 5000' water depths and beyond, is the leading indicator here and that segment is already in physical shortage.''

OneOffshore Inc. (http://www.oneoffshore.com) is a global data collection and analysis firm that specializes in providing information and services to help offshore operators and service companies control costs and maximize profits in the demanding offshore environment. The company was created in July 2000 by the merger of Petrodata, Ltd. of Aberdeen, Scotland, and Offshore Data Services Inc. of Houston, Texas. Petrodata Research maintains unique databases of worldwide new field contracting and delivers rolling forecasts of both oil supply and rig activity worldwide.

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-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), August 24, 2000

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Looks like the stew is getting thicker.

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), August 24, 2000.

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