Bid Farewell to La Niqa Fall and Winter May Be Seasonable, but That May Not Solve Weather Woes

By Michael James

Sept. 2  Droughts? Heat waves? Floods? Wildfires? What ever happened to the lazy days of summer? There still may be hope for the weather weary: As summer unofficially departs this holiday weekend, the National Weather Service predicts more typical weather as we head into fall and winter. We dont see any reasons we should have anything but normal weather for the next few months, says Vernon Kousky, a research meteorologist at the National Weather Services Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md.

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Mixed Blessing? While the return to normalcy may bring some comfort, it also could be a mixed blessing, some experts say. It may help put out wildfires, cool off heat-stricken areas and temporarily dry out rain-soaked ones, but it might not necessarily relieve all existing problems. Drought conditions in the Southeast and Texas may need more than normal rainfall. They may need tropical storms or hurricanes to bring any relief, and with an active hurricane season predicted independently of the seasonal forecast, it could happen. However, rapid rain right away might run off hard, parched ground, and hurricanes also could bring destruction. Whats more, they could bring more flooding upon the rain-soaked ground of the Northeast, Kousky says. In addition, after several years of abnormal weather fueled by El Niqo and La Niqa  conditions in the Pacific Ocean tropics that can skew North American weather patterns  people may have forgotten exactly what is normal. The odds are tilting toward a warmer-than-normal winter on average, but with a caveat: Its probably going to be colder than the last three winters for many parts of the country, Kousky says. People wont remember what they normally get because of the last three years.

La Niqa Departs Nevertheless, factors that contributed to summer heat in much of the country and a rainy, cool summer in the Northeast appear to be calming, weather experts say.

La Niqa  abnormally cool waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean  has fizzled. It has partly been blamed for droughts, rainy spells, and even indirectly for wildfires. For all intents and purposes, there is no [La Niqa or El Niqo] event happening at this moment, says Marty Hoerling, a meteorologist with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administrations Climate Diagnostic Center in Boulder, Colo. Additionally, the jet stream  the dominant air current across the northern United States  also appears to be stabilizing after a summer of wild fluctuations pushed abnormally hot, stagnant air northward into some areas and abnormally cool air southward into others, Kousky says.

Fires May Go; Droughts May Stay More typical, damp, cool weather already is headed for record-setting wildfires in the Northwest and could help douse them even before winter snows come, Kousky adds. Some say prior rains fueled by La Niqa led to rapid growth of brush, which may have contributed to a season with more acres burned than any since records have been kept. The Southeast and Texas, areas hammered by dry heat this summer, also can expect a return to normal weather. But that wont necessarily relieve a real doozy of a drought, according to Mark Svoboda, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, Neb. Its a historical drought, Svoboda says. Were talking about 20-inch deficits in some of these areas. Texas, parts of which have been rainless for two months or drought-stricken since the mid-1990s, doesnt normally tend to get damp weather until winter anyway. It might take a hurricane, tropical storm, or steady, soaking rains to bring much relief there or in portions of the Southeast, some of which also have experienced years of drought. Over the next six months, they need to see above normal precipitation, Svoboda says. Not normal. Above normal, or theyre going to be in exactly the same situation when the heat comes next summer.

Forecasts Not Certain There is a small chance it could happen even without a hurricane or tropical storm. Although the National Weather Service is predicting fairly normal weather, forecasting is an inexact science and normal can include seemingly random variability.

In the absence of having El Niqo or La Niqa, we lose a lot of our ability to make a seasonal forecast with skill, Hoerling says. Weve got nothing in particular going on, no event, and that source of predictability is sort of lacking this time of year. Bill Patzert, a research oceanographer who has long studied El Niqo and La Niqa, goes a step further. Anybody who comes out with an unequivocal forecast for the fall and winter has definitely got a better Ouija board than me, he says.

New Factor Perhaps confusing things more, there is a newly discovered oceanographic effect at work in which part of the Pacific Oceans surface rises while another falls, according to Patzert, who works at NASAs Jet Propulsion Lab at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, Calif.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation may not have as catchy a name as El Niqo or La Niqa, but it is much larger and longer-lasting. The PDOs fluctuations often correspond with El Niqo or La Niqa, but currently the PDO remains active even though La Niqa has ended and El Niqo is nowhere in sight, Patzert says. The real implications of PDO are not fully understood, Patzert adds. It could mean that the northern tier of the United States could be stormier and cooler, and the southern part of the United States could be warmer and dryer. Thats one potential scenario. But, he cautions, not enough is known about the phenomenon to do more than speculate upon its effects (for more on the PDO, see Web link to the Jet Propulsion Lab).

Kousky says it is possible that the northern border states from the Great Lakes westward may be colder than forecast, but he does not believe the PDO will be much of a factor this season. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is really a residual of El Niqo or La Niqa, Kousky says. Right now, it doesnt enter in as a factor because its pretty much in a neutral state.

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-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), September 02, 2000