Iraqi Press Predicts War

Baghdad Papers Say U.S. Plans 'New Aggression' Clinton Admin. Wants Saddam Tried For War Crimes Russia Says It Will Keep Flying Aid Into Baghdad

ANKARA, BAGHDAD, NEW YORK, STOCKHOLM and WASHINGTON Sept. 18, 2000 (CBS) A week after Iraq made threatening gestures to Kuwait, the Iraqi press Monday predicted a U.S. attack, another sign of the tension that pushed gas prices to post-Gulf War highs.

Iraq sparked concern in the international community last week when its air force violated Saudi Arabian airspace and Baghdad threatened to "suitable measures" to defend itself against Kuwaiti or Western incursions, hinting that Kuwait was stealing oil.

Theft of Iraqi oil was one of the reasons Iraq gave for invading Kuwait in 1990.

The Iraqi press charged Monday that Washington was preparing an attack on Iraq, the influential newspaper Babel saying "The American administration is planning a new aggression against Iraq, relying on its failing actors in the region, the rulers of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia."

Pushed in part by the possibility of conflict in the Gulf, oil prices soared to a new 10-year-high in New York on Monday.

Gulf states have been in contact to decide whether to meet about the latest Iraqi threats, and a Saudi Foreign Ministry official has said a meeting affirming solidarity with Kuwait could be held in the coming days.

The Kuwaiti cabinet met on Sunday and issued a statement saying that Iraq posed a real and present threat to the vital oil-rich Gulf region and called for serious international steps to contain its former occupier.

In Singapore on Sunday, visiting U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen warned Saddam Hussein to avoid taking "any kind of aggressive action" against his neighbors.

"He should understand that the United States and our British friends are fully prepared to take whatever action is necessary to prevent him from trying to repeat his past actions," Cohen said.

Western officials believe Saddam will exploit the sensitive U.S. campaign season to dramatize Iraq's opposition to U.N. economic sanctions and try to embarrass President Bill Clinton.

They said the White House had discussed plans for a range of eventualities, including Iraqi military action against the Kurds, an attack on Western aircraft or on Kuwait, and the risk that Saddam might play with oil exports to send world prices through the roof before the Nov. 7 U.S. vote.

Auguring against any new fighting is a prediction by the head of the U.N.'s new arms inspectorate for Iraq that his inspectors will be allowed into Iraq after November's U.S. presidential election. In addition, the United States said it had detected no unusually high activity by Iraqi air defense units in the northern no-fly zone.

However, in a move unlikely to defuse the potentially explosive situation, the Clinton administration urged the United Nations on Monday to establish a war crimes tribunal to try Saddam for war crimes like the gassing Kurds, using chemicals weapons against Iran and committing war crimes against American service members and Kuwaitis during the Gulf War.

Getting a tribunal to hear charges against the Iraqi will not be easy, as several Security Council members do not share the administration's zeal to punish him, among them Russia.

Russia's Foreign Ministry on Monday denied it had violated U.N. sanctions against Baghdad in dispatching a plane carrying five tons of medicine and 11 Russian oil experts. It was only the second such flight to Baghdad's newly reopened international airport since the 1991 Gulf War. The first was also a Russian aid shipment.

Critics of western sanctions against Iraq say the flights are much needed. An August report by UNICEF found that since the imposition of the trade restrictions, the infant mortality rate in Iraq had doubled.

The ban on international flights is one of several punitive measures approved by the United Nations in the wake of the war. Another is the no-fly zones which were established to protect a Kurdish enclave in the north and Shi'ite Muslims in the south from potential attacks by Iraqi troops.

U.S. and British jets regularly patrol those areas from bases in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Turkey. Iraq has made more than 150 violations of the no-fly zones since December, 1998.

http://cbsnews.cbs.com/now/story/0,1597,233586-412,00.shtml

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), September 18, 2000

Answers

U.S. urges U.N. to set up war crimes trial for Saddam Hussein September 18, 2000 Web posted at: 8:59 p.m. EDT (0059 GMT)

---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- In this story:

Cohen issues warning

Pentagon updates contingency plans

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WASHINGTON -- At the same time that the Clinton administration is pressing for the creation of a special war crimes tribunal to try Saddam Hussein for past behavior, top U.S. officials are warning the Iraqi leader not to make new threats against his neighbors or his own people.

During a speech Monday, the U.S. ambassador at large for war crimes issues, David J. Scheffer, urged the United Nations to set up an international court to put the Iraqi leader on trial.

"It is beyond any possible doubt that Saddam Hussein and the top leadership around him have brutally and systematically committed war crimes and crimes against humanity for years," Scheffer said at the National Press Club.

Scheffer said:

 Approximately 5,000 Iranians were killed by chemical weapons between 1983 and 1988 during the Iran-Iraq war

 An estimated 5,000 Kurdish civilians died from chemical weapons in the Iraqi town of Halabja in 1988

 Poison gas killed an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 Kurds in Iraq in 1987-1988

 More than 1,000 Kuwaitis and nationals from other countries were killed during Iraq's occupation of Kuwait in 1990-91

 Many civilians were among the 30,000 to 60,000 Iraqis killed by Iraqi forces while suppressing an uprising that began in the south of the country in 1991, after the end of the Persian Gulf War

 Draining of the country's southern marshes beginning in the early 1990s deprived thousands of Iraqi Shiites of their livelihoods

Cohen issues warning Scheffer quoted a list of 12 Iraqis drawn up by the British-based INDICT campaign of those who share with Hussein "the responsibility for these criminal acts."

U.S. firepower in the Persian Gulf includes the aircraft carrier George Washington The list included Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz, Hussein's cousin Ali Hassan al-Majid -- labeled "Chemical Ali" by the Iraqi opposition for his alleged use of chemical weapons against Kurdish civilians and a southern Shiite uprising -- and Hussein's sons Uday and Qusay.

Scheffer's remarks coincided with international concern over Baghdad's intentions after Iraq renewed allegations that neighboring Kuwait was stealing Iraq's oil, and reports emerged that an Iraqi military plane had this month intruded into Saudi air space.

In recent days, top officials at the White House, State Department and Pentagon have issued stern warnings to Hussein. The Pentagon has even drawn up contingency plans for air strikes in case the Iraqi leader makes a false move in the next few months.

U.S. officials said history shows the American presidential election season is traditionally a time that Hussein spoils for a fight.

"I think that he should understand that the United States and our British friends are fully prepared to take whatever action is necessary to prevent him from trying to repeat his past actions," U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen said over the weekend.

Pentagon updates contingency plans The public warnings come as the U.S. worries Iraq might move troops and tanks against the Iranian-backed Kurds in the north, as it did four years ago, which, like now, was just months before a U.S. presidential election.

The U.S. is worried Saddam Hussein might send troops and tanks against Iranian-backed Kurds in northern Iraq "So far, we have not seen an indication that is out of character of the sort of activity that you would see this time of year in conjunction with their normal training cycle," Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. Craig Quigley said last week. "We'll continue to watch very carefully,"

U.S. officials tell CNN that, just in case, U.S. commanders have updated contingency plans for three days of punishing air strikes, if Saddam Hussein crosses any "red lines."

"If there are attacks or provocations against the Kurds in the north; if there are threats against the neighbors and against our forces; or a reconstitution of the weapons of mass destruction -- we do have a credible force in the region and are prepared to use it in an appropriate way and a place of our choosing," Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said.

Some additional U.S. troops, including a Patriot missile battery in Europe, have been put on alert for possible quick deployment.

But the Pentagon insists it doesn't need reinforcements to handle Iraq, that it has plenty of firepower in the region, including the USS George Washington aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf.

http://www.cnn.com/2000/US/09/18/us.iraq.tensions/index.html

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), September 18, 2000.