Tuesday October 3, 1:59 pm Eastern Time Press Release SOURCE: OPIS Energy Group

Oil Industry Survey Reveals ... 'We're Not Adequately Prepared For This Winter, More Price Spikes Are Ahead, & An Al Gore Presidency Could Negatively Impact The Oil Industry ...' LAKEWOOD, N.J., Oct. 3 /PRNewswire/ -- The worst may still be ahead as spot prices for key refined products in the next year will most likely surpass record numbers seen in the last eight months. That's the conclusion of a large sampling of supply executives contacted by OPIS Energy Group, the leader in tracking and analyzing U.S. petroleum prices and trends, in a mid-September survey.

OPIS surveyed independent refiners, traders, schedulers and buyers two weeks ago, just before the Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude sale was announced. OPIS found plenty of variance in where they see prices this Winter, and into 2001, with a clear sense that extreme volatility will be a fixture for many months.

Most disturbing perhaps is an assessment by oil executives about the preparedness for the upcoming Winter. More than 70% of the supply survey respondents say that the oil industry is ``not adequately prepared'' for the 2000-2001 Winter.

Few executives see an easy solution to the perceived problem. One supplier attests that ``allocation right down to the consumer level is almost a certainty'' and a trader suggested that the government act to ``stop October exports of distillate!'' Many of those questioning the readiness of the industry call for much more aggressive stockpiling, and postponements of Fall refinery turnarounds. Others suggest that the ``high prices will cut into demand'' and let the free market go to work. Still others opine that it is already ``too late'' to address problems brought on by months of inadequate stock builds.

The lack of clear remedies for a Winter supply squeeze is seen in traders' assessments of where prices for N.Y. Harbor heating oil may crest. Executives were asked to pick the likely wholesale price peak for the next year, and the average assessment was $1.77 gal -- about 85cts gal above where N.Y. prices stood on October 1, 2000. Trade people are in essence predicting a heating oil price rally that will exceed the incredible spike seen last February.

Ultimately, more than 40% of those surveyed believe that wholesale heating oil prices will eventually spike above $2.00 gal in the upcoming Winter. A small dissenting group holds the opposite view, which is that $1.00 gal numbers seen in mid-September may be higher than any of the numbers likely in the next twelve months.

Visit the OPIS Energy Group Web site at http://www.opisnet.com/survey.htm to read the rest of the results from this comprehensive Oil Supply Survey, including: predictions on crude oil as high as $51 bbl; more gasoline spikes; why the Shell/Texaco alliance companies of Motiva, Equiva and Equilon garnered the most votes for ``poorly managed'' firms with Crown, Citgo, Coastal, and Sun following closely behind. Plus find out about how API & DOE data stack up against each other, the Gore-Bush election picture; OPEC's future power; buying, trading and selling oil online and much more.

SOURCE: OPIS Energy Group

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/001003/nj_opis_oi.html

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), October 04, 2000