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November 17, 2000 California Returns to the Edge of an Emergency on Electricity By BARBARA WHITAKER

OS ANGELES, Nov. 16 — California got a cold dose of reality this week as temperatures dropped to unseasonably low levels, resulting in warnings about possible electricity blackouts ahead and reminders that steep increases in natural gas prices might be coming.

For three days running, the state's Independent System Operator, the agency that oversees the high-voltage power grid serving 75 percent of the state, declared Stage 2 Electrical Emergencies as reserves dropped to less than 5 percent on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. If reserves fall below 1.5 percent, a Stage 3 emergency is declared and rotating blackouts are possible.

Officials said late Wednesday that they hoped a warming trend would ease the situation. Only a Stage 1 emergency, which calls for voluntary energy conservation, was established from 4 to 10 p.m.

While much of the problem developed because generators had been taken out of operation for maintenance, a spokeswoman for the Independent System Operator, said it highlighted how strapped the state had become for electricity.

"The growth in California and the demand for electricity has really caught up with reality," said Lorie O'Donley, a public information officer for the agency. "We're operating with a pretty slim reserve most days."

California, which has been at the forefront of deregulation of the electric industry, has come under scrutiny after electricity supplies dropped to critical levels this past summer and electric bills in San Diego more than doubled.

"In the summer we had some problems because of high demand with air conditioners and the like," Ms. O'Donley said. "But we've gotten to the point where the supply and demand equation is so close we may be seeing more problems throughout the year."

The current shortage worsened when the amount of power expected to be imported from the Northwest was cut by a third on Wednesday because the power was needed in Washington and Oregon, which were experiencing cold weather.

The move highlighted another growing problem, Ms. O'Donley said.

"Energy has become a regional issue," she said. "We really have for many years counted on getting imports from the Pacific Northwest."

During the summer, those states provide electricity for California, and the state returns the favor during winter. But development of power supplies has lagged behind the rapid growth on the West Coast, leaving utility companies scrambling to serve their customers.

In addition to advisories about shortages, officials with the Pacific Gas and Electric Company, which serves 13 million people in Northern and Central California, urged consumers to conserve energy during the current cold snap as natural gas prices are expected to be about 50 percent higher this year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/17/national/17POWE.html

-- Martin Thompson (mthom1927@aol.com), November 17, 2000