I don't normally post, read, or comment on political issues, but heard on some radio news today the economy was going to slow down and we might be in for a reccession. How many of you think this is true? Are you prepared? Would you welcome it? Would you be dismayed? I'd just like some feedback without a lot of ranting about the political issues. I for one would be ready, I think our society as a whole needs to get away from so much commericalism and the more, more, more syndrone. Y2K wasn't enough for some people. Everywhere I turn, (and I don't get out much) it's "Oh lets get this and that and have you seen the new this, isn't it just gorgeous! " sometimes I feel like I'm on a different planet than some of these people, except on this forum, of course. Just museing!

-- Carol in Tx (cwaldrop@peoplescom.net), December 26, 2000

Answers

There are two things to keep in mind about the economy of the USA and other industrialized nations.

1) The economy is all smoke and mirrors. We have no true economy, just a bunch of bean counters with pieces of paper that are worth whatever the other bean counters agree they are worth.

2) Our economy is based on a growing debt. There is no steady state, either the total amount of debt grows, or the economy falls apart. If industry wasn't continually creating new things and new styles to temp people to go farther in debt, there is a recession or depression.

Both of these two facts add up to an economic system that cannot be stable in the long run. There is also a trend that the longer the economy grows, the worse the inevitable recession/depression is. There have been long periods of growth in the past followed by mild recessions, but they seem to be the exception and not the rule.

Taking a look at how fast the economy grew over the last decade or so, and how unstable stocks have been the last year, I expect a big recession soon. I've been wrong about this in the past though.

As for me, we could hit a depression that would make the 30's look like a bright spot in history and I'd hardly notice.

==>paul

-- paul (p@ledgewood-consulting.com), December 26, 2000.

Of course we are going into recession. Mr. Greenspan has deemed a slowdown neccessary. As Paul stated our economy is charted as a sine curve, always in balanced motion. The only wildcard in the picture is consumer spending and investing habits, which result in triggers to the fed as may happen in Jan. Mr. Greenspans job is to keep the sine from going too far either way. Now is the time this country has to pay for all that dotcom wealth in the spring. By the way, the difference between a recession and a depression - In a recession, your nextdoor neighbor is out of work, In a depression, your brother- in-law is out of work and ringing your bell with the family and suitcases in tow. :)

-- Jay Blair in N. AL (jayblair678@yahoo.com), December 26, 2000.

It seems to me that a recession is a real possibility in the new year. Which brings us another question. I read somewhere where silver and gold are hedges against recession/depression. Is that right and if so why? Never could figure that out. Doug

-- Doug in KY (toadshutes@yahoo.com), December 26, 2000.

Nope, think we are already there. In four months the gov't will look back and pronounce the recession started sometime in Oct or Nov. The question is how long and deep?

-- JLS in NW AZ (stalkingbull007@AOL.com), December 26, 2000.

Paul and Jay made some very good points, so does this mean "us homesteaders" are contributing to the economic downfall? Oh my are we bad or what? LOL

-- Carol in Tx (cwaldrop@peoplescom.net), December 26, 2000.

Carol, if everybody started homesteading, the economic numbers would never recover, but then nobody would care. ;-) Shows just how much those numbers really mean.

Economic policy at every level of government is geared to keeping certain numbers in the desirable range, even if the numbers are meaningless. There were people here who campaigned in the last election to bring jobs and economic development to the area. They completely ignore the fact that they types of jobs they want to bring in will ruin the lifestyle for the people already here. However the number of employed people and the average wage are two if the numbers politicians look at to gauge how ‘good' thing are. The fact that the farmers here now will eventually be taxed out of existence means nothing to them, as long as they are replaced by somebody with a higher income.

I you had a county where the majority of the population homesteaded, in the modern sense of the word, it would have such a low average income that there would be officials swarming to the area to dump money into programs to raise the average income. They would never bother to see that the homes were paid for and warm and that the kids were well feed well educated.

==>paul

-- paul (p@ledgewood-consulting.com), December 26, 2000.

Actually, dh and I have been wondering when it's going to hit, not if. Seems to us that our economy has been a house of cards for a long time, and a recession is overdue. Long overdue. In some ways I almost would welcome it, as I am often appalled at the way people keep spending money like there is no tomorrow. Our society seems so affluent yet if you really talk to people, most of their spending is on credit. I would like to see the pace slow down, but I'm more than a little afraid that a downward spiral won't stop with a recession, but could turn into a major depression. Yet those hard times are what made us great as a nation. The scary part for me is knowing that so much of our society has developed an entitlement mindset..... I suspect things could get a bit ugly if people are deprived of what they think they have to have. The Y2K scare was a good wakeup call for us. We're not ready yet, but workng hard to get to that point. Unfortunately most of our society seems to think the party will go on indefinately.

-- Lenette (kigervixen@webtv.net), December 26, 2000.

Lenette you commented, "-- those hard times are what made us great as a nation." Actually getting out of the depression was a major factor in making this country "great". The gov't should know how to prevent a depression nowadays - 1)spent lots of money you don't have, 2) go to war. 3) If really bad do both one and two.

Carol in TX, you also commented "-- does this mean "us homesteaders" are contributing to the economic downfall? Oh my are we bad or what? LOL" I think it was Sheepish who noted a few weeks ago that homesteaders are parasites on our current system. We don't pay our "fair" share of taxes or spend money like city folks. GOOD I say, when they get tired of supporting a corrupt gov't and urban society they can join us!!!! (Note: Sheepish, if I have misquoted you I apoligize.)

-- JLS in NW AZ (stalkingbull007@AOL.com), December 26, 2000.

Will we have a recession?You bet.But I believe it is still some months off.There is a lot of momentum left in the economy at this point.I see a very slow downhill slide for the next year.If you are not ready better get started with preperations. Are WE ready?Yeah but certainly not looking forward to it.I enjoy being able to buy a book,tool or put a new coat of paint on the barn when I want to. I am definitely one who believes the"good old days"are now.I lived through some of the other kind when I was a kid.

-- JT in Florida (gone2seed@hotmail.com), December 26, 2000.

I think JT's answer is about like what I think. I get the idea that most people on this forum are younger than me,(at least I hope so because I am older than dirt) and don't remember what it was like before the current welfare programs. My dear one and I were talking at length about our children and how they are going to handle a serious recession or, as we are inclined to believe, the coming depression. There were some surplus food hand outs and stuff from some of the churches, but for the most part it was each man for himself and neighbor to help neighbor. In our small rural neighborhood there was one car, most of the men that worked in town walked a couple miles to the nearest bus stop. We had kids come to school with bread wrappers for socks inside shoes that were taped together. This generation today does not have a clue what it was like. Tough times are if you have to eat beans and rice a few times. I am more than a little scared for people and their state of mind when things come tumbling down. Maybe there is some magic solution that can keep things going as they are, but I sure don't see it.

-- diane (gardiacaprines@yahoo.com), December 26, 2000.

I have to agree with JLS. I think we have already hit a downward trend. Jobs have been hard to get. Seems like everyone I've talked to this year spent way less on Christmas than in previous years. Seems like everyone is low on money and they can't put their finger on the exact reason. I feel very lucky that I was able to sell my house in Tx(and get out from under the mortgage) when I did. As strange as it seems I feel more of a sense of urgency now than I did last year at this time(Y2K). All the plans I have been making involve as little as possible in the way of using any type of petroleum product. My plans seem to include a lot of self sustaining/renewing endeavors. My goals/views have changed some in the last few months.....call it womens intuition or guidance from above. I think the times they are a changin.

-- Amanda in Mo (aseley@townsqr.com), December 26, 2000.

I think Diane hit on the most devastating thing about a plummet in the economy. People are so wrapped up in the "you are what you own" mentality that I could easily see them doing just what many did in '29. Jumping from buildings, etc. If you are prepared spiritually, this is all transient anyway. Not that it isn't real and/or brutal at times, but you know it isn't permanent.

The economy actually needs to be corrected. It has been way over inflated on credit for much too long, but corrections are never easy to take.

-- Doreen (animalwaitress@excite.com), December 26, 2000.

I agree there are very few of us who know what it would be like, I'm only 38 and never seen a hungry day in my life! Goodness there would be lots of family wanting to move in with us! Adult children, maybe a sis and bil, & kids. Yes, we've been feeling the pinch for 2-3 yrs now, my dh has worked oil field/natural gas all his life, 2 yrs ago the plant sold to another gas co. who closed the plant and shipped the gas to the plant 15 miles down the road, layed off 36 people, my bil who had been a peanut/cotton farmer for 20 yrs down S. of S.A. Tx had to get out after a 2 yr drought, sis who is a REG. PHYS, Therapist asst. was layed off 3 X's in a year due to medicare cutbacks They both have good jobs now but had to move 300 miles to get them. You would think when the oil price soared the related jobs would've been plentiful but they weren't it took a while to catch up, he is now working back for a well service company as the low man on the totem pole, he is very overqualified for this position and usually knows more than the supervisor, but he's not above working like this till something better comes along. We did get out of debt before he was layed off, so with that accomplished we can handle some tough times, of course there's still the property taxes, feed, food, medical etc. we aren't as self suffecient as I'd like to be, but we are slowly coming along in that area. I realize my dh will be layed off in a reccesion or depression. My Grandmother tells of how her family didn't suffer as bad as some during the depression because they were farmers, had pigs, chickens, milk cow, etc. she sd nobody had money though but they had plenty to eat and yes, relatives living with them! So maybe I'm naive but I allways think of what she told me when I think of hard times pending, and am trying to accomplish this self suffeciency. Do I want to eat beans every day of the week, NO but many have survived on that. My fil told us back in 1986 when the oilfield went bust, that if you could grow corn, beans, and sorghum you could live on that alone, of course with a cow and chickens also. My fil was gearing my dh up back then to plant a couple acres of sorghum in some bottom land he'd grown it in 20 yrs before, when he passed away, Oh how I wished my dh would've learned more from him before he passed!

-- Carol in Tx (cwaldrop@peoplescom.net), December 26, 2000.

Great discussion. I basically agree with all thats been said. Someone mentioned a steady state in the economy, but relative to growth. There's another option outlined in BF Schumachers book "SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL, Economics as if people mattered". An excellent book about the merits of sustainable development, steady state economics, decentralization etc. One thing I remember particularly is the line "Infinite growth in a world of finite resources is an impossibility." Highly recommended reading.

Maybe a severe recession is needed, tho I'd hate to see so many people hurt. Coupled with another energy crisis perhaps we'd wake up to the things that are really important to us as a society.

The earlier post about Kadaffi urging opec to do a 2yr embargo was really eye opening. What if they(opec) did cut us off for two years? A huge impact on the economy would result.

What would happen? Loooong gas lines. Gasoline at $4-$5/gallon. Double digit inflation. Escalated oil exploration, the environment be damned. Large scale economic upheaval. The bright side?

In the long run the oil producers would wind up screwing themselves because all us backyard tinkerers and RE enthusiasts who were awakened to the issue back in the seventies would mobilize, individually and collectively to meet our needs. Energy conservation would move again to the forefront. Systemic frugality would have to become the order of the day and just maybe we'd start acting like one nation and one people again, united with the common purpose of insuring we all have a roof over our heads, enuf to eat, adequate health care etc. It's all fine and good to debate social theory, from the left, the right and the middle, but when the rubber hits the road, big time profiteering at the expense of the little guy will be history. Nice to dream.

-- john leake (natlivent@pcpros.net), December 27, 2000.

TO DOUG IN KY:

About the lure of silver and gold in a recession. Here's a link to an outfit that specializes in gold and other precious metals. It makes for interesting reading.

http://www.the-privateer.com/gold.html

Keep in mind that gold and silver are just commoditites like stocks, bonds, t-bills, currency, pork bellies. Traditionally, when people have lost faith in paper, they move to precious metals. But, like comedy, timing is everything. :)

(:raig

-- Craig Miller (CMiller@ssd.com), December 27, 2000.

Well if thats true about oil exploration, my dh would have a job as long as the ride lasted and he would probably ride it!

-- Carol in Tx (cwaldrop@peoplescom.net), December 27, 2000.

Last night, I brought up the subject of this thread with the people I work with. One fella made an interesting point. In recent times folks have argued politics as we all are aware, his point was that since the fed, comprised of money barons and industry and media controlled by the same, have such power over our country that we are actually amodern fuedalism, rather than a democracy or republic. In his analogy, the millionaires are the medieval lords and barons and we the serfs. Rather intrigueing.

-- Jay Blair in N. AL (jayblair678@yahoo.com), December 27, 2000.

Precious metals! Gold and silver are so cheap now, that if I was walking down the street and saw a bar of silver lying on the ground, I wouldn't bother to stoop to pick it up! (okay, I'm fibbing!) But neither gold nor silver was a good investment over the past coupla years, even through the Y2k event. OTOH, paladium and platinum! Sheesh! Especially paladium. Should have bought heavy! I could live off the interest...

I don't know about whether we are running out of oil, whether we are overpopulating the planet, whether or not we will be able to accomodate all the changes coming our way. I don't even know how to talk about this anymore. I keep having these Jungian moments where I think we are taking our collective unconscious feelings and are projecting them into the world. I remember some of the post-war (WWII) stuff Jung wrote about where we took our collective world angst and projected it into the manisfestation of the Cold War. Are we taking our new collective world angst and projecting it into some other phase? One of scarcity? Denial of luxury?

This is not to deny the physical realities that are really happening, but oh, heck, I'm getting way too philopsophical, aren't I? Okay, I'll just shut up. But why do we more or less obsess about this stuff?

Definitely on another planet today. I had better go clean the barn!

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), December 27, 2000.

I really hope the economy stays good for another year or 2, I am being greedy when I say that. We own a company that does well because Harry homeowner does not want to get dirty or pick up a shovel{we do landscape construction:patios,walkways,gardens and decks} I will say this year has been the best so far and allowed us to pay off some big bills,1 or 2 more like this and we will be real close to debt free. Now if it would all crash tomorrow we would beable to hold our own for awhile,the house payment would get us in a few months but alot would go before that would happen.

-- renee oneill{md.} (oneillsr@home.com), December 27, 2000.

Every morning I listen to the business news report from KRLD radio in Dallas. Every morning there is a list of companies that are laying off or are announcing lower than expected earnings, and therefore lower than expected stock dividends. Many of the dotcom businesses are going out of business. We are already in the recession, and have been for months. The government just isn't telling us, hoping that if we don't know, we will continue to spend everything we get and maybe bolster the economy up again.

No, I don't welcome the thought of a recession or depression. I grew up with stories about the depression, and really don't want to go there. But if it comes, I'll survive it.

As for many people reacting like folks did in 1929, I think that it is a very real possibility. My ecentric cousin has said for years that people are so wrapped up in the consumer economy, and are now so functionally illiterate in doing anything for themselves that there will be wholesale suicide when the depression comes. He believes parents will kill themselves after they have killed their children because they will not be able to figure out what to do without their fancy houses and/or the government to take care of them. Besides, who would want to continue to live if you didn't have the latest electronic devices, a swimming pool, and new vehicles? Who would want to live so primitively as people did 100 years ago? He could very well be right. Just because he is ecentric doesn't mean he is stupid.

-- (ratdogs10@yahoo.com), December 28, 2000.

I think we are starting to see bits and pieces of one but the hard impact I don't think will start till at least 6 to 9 mths from now and I think it will last for several yrs. As I see it we as a country have just gotten too big for our britches, especially the under 35 crowd,(after all why does a 13yr old need a pager and cell phone) and we need to lose the excess. alot of people our going to be hurting in 1 to 2 yrs from now and sad to say but its going to be the older generation that gets hurt the most also the ones that are still farming and losing ground everyday to Industrial Ag, the auto workers,alot of construction type workers and the biggest group will be the retail worker section. The one big problem will be the rising cost of essentials such as heating,food,gas,medicine,health care,etc. I worry about the auto plants that are closing and moving to other countries,if a major war were to break out (if things keep going in Israel)and include the US how are we going to build the ships and tanks,etc we will need to supply the troops if we don't have the plants as they did in WWll.

Tom

-- Tom in Michigan (tjk@cac.net), December 28, 2000.

Forgive mispellings.Saw and lived a downward spiral of the enonomy in the 70's. World did NOT come to an end, though we had to limit gasoline. And work two jobs. Foreclosed homes were all around. We still had food, had to scale back on other things. My inspiration to you... we have lived through it before you.... And we never went hungry. Corn bread and beans are not a bad thing.

-- Pray and Pass (the@ammunition.com), December 28, 2000.

I have been acommercial bill collector for the past thirteen years and before that I was a finanace company collector(that's right I was a repo and foreclosure man). It is a little known fact that commercial bill collectors (good ones) are the first the smell reccessions. For the simple fact factories and stores will still buy on credit hoping that times will get better whether they have the money or not. They hope the credit time will keep them solvent and that furture sales will pay for the debt. When traditionally good customers are still buying and not paying that is a sure sign that financial problems are coming. When several companies in diverse industries do the same you can safly bet that a reccession is coming. I noticed this happening back in August. I did warn my boss, who was able to make certain spending and policy changes so I'm confident we'll weather it through just fine. In service to Our Lord Jesus. Scott

-- Scott (swamphunter@hotmail.com), December 28, 2000.

Jesus Christ Phillip, What an oddesy I just embarked upon, with your statement of the I.T.T, you should laugh at the fools, from my recluse of experts. At my level, beneath. Haunt the fools, until they tell the truth. Be a Truth Seeker.BTW, I am not a Zealous, most times I do not know what/why the hell I am led to do certain things, and I do not enjoy them for certain. To implore my innocence, Oh Hell, what the Hell does it matter? Hope to you.

-- Tired and I (wanna@gohome.com), December 28, 2000.

We are pretty much at the bottom of the scale, even working a regular job and running a small farm. We don't have much debt, but losing my job would mean no more of our luxury visits to the grocery store to buy such wonderful treats like marshmallow fluff...

Quite seriously, I used to pray for some sort of economic collapse to the economy to vindicate my lifestyle choice to my family, my ex-husband, etc. Now I don't really care. We work and raise our own livestock and so on, and frankly, I like having the benefits of medical insurance I get from my job. Losing it would mean that I would have to apply for assistance of some kind so my husband could get the medical treatment and medication he needs to stay alive, this would not be an option, as much as I hate the idea of any welfare. We like paying our own way but some things are just out of reach no matter how hard you work. We don't mind doing without, but life or death - that's a different matter. I just wish medicine didn't cost so much.

Our kids don't look for anything extravagent for Christmas, in fact, we made a game of selecting a number of inexpensive items at the dollar/discount stores. The focus was on the two youngest ones and we'll have a small gift giving celebration for our teens on New Years, because that lets us get the most for our money.

We cut wood for heat, we have our own home dairy, we raise much of our feed and shop carefully for bargains to keep our critters going (check this out - $20.00 for 12 tons of dried beans culls at the bean company). Trips to town are carefully planned to maximize gas. We aren't miserable or suffering because of lack of cash, but an economic crash would not improve things for us. On the other hand, we would certainly adjust much better then most. Personally I think the economy is already starting to sink. For those that had such a great time buying all their toys - hope they enjoy the memories. We'll be eating prime rib and steaks in a warm house, no matter what happens.

-- Anne Tower (bbill@wtvl.net), December 29, 2000.

I don't believe that an economic crash would be a boon to anyone other than the exceedingly rich. They could then buy up much more at distess prices following Rothchild's credo of "Buy when there is blood in the streets...". The Great Depression is very parallel to the economy of today, but actually that economy was less overinflated/valued.

The world will keep turning without the dollar, it will just be harder on us. As for precious metals, they are fine to invest in, but beyond many people's financial means. For Y2k my barter investments were tooth brushes and 22 ammo. I could afford them. So invested in brass, I guess!

-- Doreen (animalwaitress@excite.com), December 29, 2000.

One nice thing that has come from my family embracing this lifestyle. I used to worry and try to change the options in my company 401k for the "big wins". Now with the recession looming, I am perfectly happy if its value increases just a fraction of a point or doesn't tank.I wont need a lot to retire here now! I do feel sorry for my coworkers in dept to twice their income and chewing those antacids (maybe tums is a good investment).

-- Jay Blair in N. AL (jayblair678@yahoo.com), December 29, 2000.

One way we know that a recession is on the way is that my sweetie drives a cab. There are a couple of things that people don't do when the economy is going sour, take riding lessons (from me) and take a cab. When the last big recession hit, we noticed right off since many of my dh regular riders suddenly started taking buses or MARTA. For the past three months DH has come home and said business is bad. This month he said business was terrible. And this is at the height of a good season where lots of people are out and about Christmas shopping. One thing I noticed was that there were lots of folks at the malls, but not a lot were carrying Shopping bags (that clear indicator of purchasing). Most were "just looking" like myself. I think the economy is suffering a slow down, but I don't think recession is here yet. I work for a large telecom corp. and business is good so far. Yet, I sense that people are nervous and aren't turning loose of their dollars like they were a year ago.

-- Cindy (colawson@mindspring.com), December 29, 2000.

Back last summer I posted a question asking if other small business owners were experiencing eerily slow times, because the more I talked with other retailers, the more I was convinced that the hype about how great the economy was doing was just that - hype, and that the truth was/is that the economy is in deep trouble. I have noticed a slowdown in business volume for over a year, and pretty much any business owner I talk with acknowledges the same. Unless one's business caters to the wealthy, since what is happening is that more and more of the world's wealth is being concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer but larger and larger corporations. Mutual funds and stocks are really just a way to get people to hand over their hard-earned money to corporations. Just like in the natural world, where diversity of species is being wiped out by pollution and destruction of habitat, diversity in the business world is being wiped out by bigger & bigger corporations gobbling up independent small businesses and destruction of the market environment. Enjoy.

-- snoozy (allen@oz.net), December 31, 2000.

Yes,Lenette-a house of cards-credit cards,to be specific.Many who looks like they are doing good are in debt up to their ears.Let's see,loans for boats,loans for ATV's,home equity loan to buy more stuff you don't need.I admit to feeling smug when I see their possessions,definitely not envious,knowing how they got there and how they can never retire,bc they have too much debt.

Do I relish a recession? No,but a correction's needed,as Doreen stated.

Can people take it? Could it get ugly? Agree with Diane, few people have a clue how hard things can be.The 70's? Hardly noticed it.The 80's? Oh,some belt tightening.I have never been unfed,let alone starved.I know some on the forum have had really hard times,and they know what it like.Takes alot of strenght. Our Ancestors had it,but do we?(not we as in here on this forum,bc we do-but"we" as a collective.)

Siucide, perhaps the least worry.Got to side with Doreen,again, and recommend invest in brass & lead in a recession.Just a few years ago,when we had a bad snow and got people stranded,a group stuck on the interstate tried to commandeer a National Guard vehicle that was on the way to pick up an ill person.Gee,they were cold and mad, and wanted to get home."A decline of civility",maybe? And that was just a little inconvience of snow.Only way they knew how to cope was try to take a four wheel drive vehicle belonging to a rescue squad.

And,lastly ,multi national corperations running things-our feudal lords? Refer to paragraph one.Jay-you get to be Obviousman tonight!

I Don't worry abt. one world order bc I think we'll have one big multinational company order,first.Or something like that.

No offense on that last one,Doreen

And I usually avoid these threads.Too depressing to keep repeating. My philosophy-Do what you can,and let go,let God,beyond that.End of rant.Removing foot from mouth. Stepping down from the soapbox.Going to bed.

Happy New Year!

-- sharon wt (wildflower@ekyol.com), December 31, 2000.

As I set here reading this thread I'm reminded of my years spent on this old earth. I'm also reminded that what time I have left will not be spent worry'n about tomorrow, next week or even next year. Each day has troubles enough of it's own. I refuse to lose precious time entangled over what may or may not happen. I enjoy each and every day of my life now and wake up each morning thanking Almighty God for this extra time. Trouble will come--we know that. Finances will get tighter but we will survive. We are HOMESTEADERS!!! Just hang in there and face each day as it comes. Now, it's time for the old hootster to "hit the hay" as it's most of 10pm. Y'all sleep well--God is STILL in control! hoot. Matt. 24:44

-- hoot (hoot@pcinetwork.com), December 31, 2000.

I don't know if the US economy is going to take a bump or not but you can be assured that all the world will be watching with interest. Even the most unlikely countries, such as the DPRK (North Korea), where I worked in 1998, and Afghanistan, where I was working a couple of weeks ago, peg all external transactions to the green dollar. A minor bump in the US economy can be the cause of people to starving in other countries.

-- john hill (john@cnd.co.nz), January 01, 2001.

Good point, John. I think we tend to think in a rather insular fashion. Or at least I do, until someone redirects my attention.

Snoozy, I remember that post. Maybe we should use your insights as market indicators!

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), January 01, 2001.

I agree with Paul about those bean counters.... For the past five years or so every time some idiot comes on the news and says how great the economy is I have to question, "does this person get out much or do they have attention deficit disorder?"

I and all of my city dwelling friends will heartily agree that its all a smoke screen for a nation that has been under delusion for so long it will believe anything.

For instance, the stock market has been hyped up to the max and the word on the street and the web is that you can get rich on the internet. Well, to every lie there is a thread of truth. So many businesses have lost their shirts on the internet that they can't keep track of them. The desire for another great "Gold Rush", in this generation and the greed of a lot of people have fueled the myth that all you have to do is get a web site, start an ezine, sit back and watch the orders come in. The thread of truth is that the ones who are getting rich are the suppliers of the services, software and equipment to enable people to lose their shirts are the ones getting rich.

In the old days of the Great Depression, what preceded the bottom falling out were a bunch of dishonest jerks pooling together and boosting up the stock prices long enough for the little fish to believe that they had a good thing and if they didn't invest they would be missing out on the opportunity of a lifetime. So, here come the little fishies....

The stock prices went up for a little while, but the word on the streets was that the market was taking a downturn. So, people sold out some of their stock if they were wise, but in general the stock prices went down because of a lack of faith in the economy. This required those who started the pools to sink more and more funds into the stock market to try and sustain the prices until they could make a profit. Some of these investors were using the money from their bank clients deposits. If they lost their investments, those who had made the deposits into their banks would lose their life savings, homes, etc.

That is exactly what happened... they kept pouring money into a sinking ship... I believe we are seeing the same kind of behavior today. People aren't investing money they can afford to lose, they are going into debt to do it. When the stock market gets overinflated and people are hoping for that big "strike it rich", they get stuck and can't get out.

History always repeats itself.....

-- Stephanie Nosacek (possumliving@go.com), January 01, 2001.