Forecast: Turbulence: A summer of air-travel misery is again likely as woes continue to grow.

By Clint Swett and Matthew Barrows

(Published May 14, 2001)

Air travelers are in for another hot summer. And we're talking tempers, not temperatures.

Labor disputes are simmering, the air traffic control system is stretched thin, and runways and gates at major airports are jammed -- all pointing toward another season of delayed flights and frayed nerves.

"The forecast is for gloom and doom," said Dean Headly, a Wichita State University professor who is co-author of a recent study showing increases in everything from bumped passengers to mishandled baggage last year.

"The system is at fracture point," Headly said. "All it takes is one event to have a huge impact." Travelers might not get an exact replay of last summer, when a pilot job action and bad weather caused United Airlines to cancel as many as 25,000 flights.

But things haven't improved much.

"There are a considerable number of potential problems out there," said Richard Gritta, a University of Portland professor who studies commercial aviation issues. "This will be a tough summer, but it's tough every summer. There's just too much congestion."

According to the Federal Aviation Administration, the number of commercial air travelers in the United States rose 131 percent in 18 years to 670.4 million in 2000.

And over the past 10 years, air traffic has increased 37 percent while airport capacity has risen only 1 percent.

"There are just too few runways for the number of flights," said Dave Schaffer, counsel for the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, which has been holding hearings on airport congestion.

According to a recent FAA report, 27 of the nation's major airports are classified as seriously congested, contributing to the fact that 25 percent of all commercial flights in the United States during the first nine months of last year were delayed, diverted or canceled.

Congestion isn't an issue at Sacramento International Airport, which has a new terminal and runway capacity for 300,000 takeoffs and landings a year, about twice its current usage.

But its operations are heavily influenced by activities at airports in cities such as Los Angeles, Dallas and Chicago, said G. Hardy Acree, director of Sacramento County airports.

That's because most major airlines (with the exception of Southwest) operate on a "hub and spoke" model, in which passengers are funneled from outlying areas to major hub airports, then back out to other outlying areas. Any disruptions at the hubs invariably ripple through the spokes to smaller airports such as Sacramento's, Acree said.

The biggest problem, experts say, is that airlines schedule too many arrivals and departures during just a few hours -- around 7 a.m. and 5 p.m. -- when business fliers want to travel.

It's like a freeway: Things are fine most of the time, but rush hour is a mess. "The airlines are to blame because of overscheduling. That's what contributes to their horrible on-time performance," said Gritta, the Portland professor. "That scheduling isn't the passengers' fault, and they have a right to be angry."

Keith Harrison works for the state Office of Emergency Services and has taken business flights -- mainly between Los Angeles and Sacramento -- for 25 years. His biggest complaints: Planes have become too crowded, and too many flights are delayed.

"You always cross your fingers," he said while waiting for a flight home from Sacramento International Airport last week. "I came in OK this morning, but it seems like every other flight you take is delayed."

Schaffer, of the House transportation committee, said the airlines are simply responding to customer demand, and that more runways would solve the problem. But building runways can be enormously expensive, both in financial terms and in increased noise and other environmental costs.

"Everyone wants the convenience, but nobody wants to pay the price," Schaffer said.

A new runway at San Francisco International Airport, for instance, would require filling in more of San Francisco Bay. The issue has sparked a furious debate among developers, environmentalists and government officials with no quick end in sight.

Acree, Sacramento County's airport director, and others suggest a more market-based approach: Charge airlines higher fees for landing rights and gate space during prime hours. According to the logic, airlines would be less inclined to schedule flights in prime hours if it cost them and their passengers more. And travelers who really wanted to fly at those times would pay for the privilege.

"If airports were allowed to charge what their assets are worth, it would go a long way to fixing this problem," Acree said.

Air carriers already do much the same thing when it comes to passenger fares, charging more for the most popular flights and heaviest travel days, while discounting flights that don't attract the same traffic.

But the carriers say increasing their costs ultimately would limit options for passengers -- when what's needed are more options.

"With peak pricing, airlines might say it's too expensive and rearrange their schedules or even stop flying out of that airport," said Michael Wascom, a spokesman for the Air Transport Association, which represents the nation's major passenger and cargo carriers.

"What it boils down to is that the customers want a 7 o'clock option and a 9 o'clock option, and the system should be able to handle that."

One issue out of the airlines' hands is the outdated air traffic control system, which routes planes along the airways to their destinations.

Much of the hardware is obsolete, using old radar and computer technology to make sure thousands of planes a day don't occupy the same space at the same time. It works tolerably well under ideal conditions, but in bad weather, FAA controllers often ground planes or reroute them hundreds of miles to keep them separated.

Newer technology such as satellite-based navigation, experts say, would allow more planes to fly safely in closer proximity.

While billions of dollars for such a system have been set aside in a federal aviation trust fund, finding the best technology and getting it installed has been a serious challenge -- one expected to take the better part of a decade.

"Much of the technology is there. It will just need leadership to get it into place as fast as it's safe to do," said Aaron Gellman, a professor in the Transportation Center at Northwestern University.

Adding to the problems facing the airline industry this summer is a series of labor disputes that threaten to make the travel season a disaster.

"Labor problems are a real possibility," said business professor Gritta, "and a work stoppage would be devastating."

Passengers got a glimpse of the ominous potential last summer when pilots at United Airlines, angry at the slow pace of labor negotiations, refused to work overtime. That action tied the airline in knots and contributed to the cancellation of 25,000flights.

This summer, United flight attendants are threatening a job action. Less likely, but still a possibility, are strikes by American Airlines flight attendants and United's mechanics and ground personnel such as baggage handlers and customer-service agents.

The potential for disruption could have been worse. Mechanics at Northwest Airlines approved a new contract this month, and in a few weeks, Delta Air Lines pilots will vote on a contract that would make them the highest-paid in the industry.

There is some other good news: Experts predict rising fuel costs won't affect most passengers this summer.

Darryl Jenkins, director of the Aviation Institute at George Washington University, said the situation should be similar to the early 1990s, when the Gulf War sent fuel prices spiraling 48 percent, but a souring economy kept fares reasonably low.

"In an economic downturn, it's very hard to raise ticket prices," he said. But Jenkins predicted the rising fuel costs will have a big impact on smaller airlines that, unlike their larger counterparts, don't hedge against price spikes.

"I fully expect some of the smaller carriers to declare bankruptcy," he said.

And amid these summer pitfalls is the opportunity for bargains.Tom Parsons, who runs the Web site Bestfares.com, said the slowing economy is forcing businesses to cut back on travel, prompting airlines to slash fares to lure leisure travelers.

"I believe that this summer, for the first time in a long time, you'll be able to find great deals," Parsons said. "The airlines have to fill up their planes, and the only way to do that is make an offer you can't refuse."

The Bee's Clint Swett can be reached at (916) 321-1976 or cswett@sacbee.com.

-- Swissrose (cellier3@mindspring.com), May 14, 2001