Everything's changed, and not all for the worse

By Mark Memmott, USA TODAY

Could the terrorists who attacked New York and Washington two weeks ago have anticipated how far the ripple effects would spread? Not likely. America has changed in ways that no one could have expected.

But the nation's mood is strong, and the outlook, even for the economy, isn't all bad.

Patriotism is sweeping America in a way not seen since World War II. Annin & Co. of Roseland, N.J., the nation's largest flag-maker, is producing 100,000 Old Glorys a week — up from a normal 30,000 — and can't meet demand. President Bush's 90% approval rating is the highest Gallup has recorded since it began measuring presidential performance in 1938. Tattoo parlors are crowded with people wanting flags and other patriotic symbols. Charities are having trouble keeping up with the money pouring in for the victims of the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks. More than $500 million has been given so far.

Some of the ripples will be felt for a long time. Airport security might never be relaxed. Other effects might disappear quickly or be one-time wonders. Hollywood is postponing TV shows or rewriting action films. The Super Bowl might be delayed a week and may be moved out of New Orleans because of scheduling problems created when play was suspended for a week. New ripples will appear.

What's for sure: Americans agree the nation won't return to "normal" anytime soon. How could it, with more than 6,000 people missing and presumed dead?

The shock waves "will probably last for two generations," says Gerald Celente, director of the Trends Research Institute in Rhinebeck, N.Y., and author of Trends 2000. "Those of us in our 50s ... remember very vividly the fallout from Pearl Harbor and the Cold War. These things just don't go away."

Wave of fear

The terrorists themselves, experts say, wanted first to inflict fear by killing as many people as possible and showing they could strike some of America's most treasured landmarks. They may have hoped they would bring down the World Trade Center's twin towers and cause significant damage to the Pentagon or other symbols of America in the process. If they are linked to the group that bombed the Trade Center in 1993 in the hopes of toppling at least one of the towers, it's likely that was a dream of theirs.

But they couldn't have been certain that they would succeed or what the consequences would be.

"I have a feeling they had no idea how great the impact (of the attacks) might be and how great it has been," says Neil Livingstone, a terrorism expert and CEO of Global Options, international risk management consultants. "I bet they couldn't believe their 'good fortune.' "

"I wouldn't be surprised if we find out in coming years that they were targeting (the attacks) to bring those towers down," says Matthew Devost, co-founder of the Terrorism Research Center, a consulting group. "They surely would have looked at what would be the best way to do that. ... But it's difficult to say how much they would have anticipated in terms of the effects. Their biggest goal had to be to let us know there is no sanctuary."

And while the terrorists achieved that goal, other effects may not necessarily be what they had in mind.

Americans' strong sense of common purpose and patriotism has caught even professional pollsters off guard. An overwhelming majority of Americans say they're willing to wage a long, bloody, expensive war on terrorism. Less than a year after the closest presidential election in history, a divided nation has united. "No one is going to forget this," Devost says.

While the newfound fear has helped bring America together, it has also crippled some industries. Hotels in many cities are virtually empty. So, too, are many commercial jets.

The ripples have washed over industries and communities that would seem far-removed from any impact. Anyone can understand the devastating effect of several thousand New York City children losing one or both parents. But what's becoming more apparent each day is that even remote places, the hometowns of Trade Center victims in Arkansas or California, are feeling the effects.

But, ironically, the terrorists may also have set off a chain of events that could leave the economy in better shape next year than it would have been otherwise.

The economic impact

The economic ripples from the attacks are as complicated and unprecedented as any in history. But as dire as things may seem now, with stocks falling, layoffs rising and talk that the first recession since 1990-91 may have begun this quarter, the economic outlook isn't necessarily all bad.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at Bank One, happened to be inside the Marriott Hotel at the World Trade Center when the towers were attacked. She was at a conference with 300 other economists. All escaped. The hotel later collapsed.

Swonk doesn't want to talk about that experience, "except with those of us who went through it." But she's glad to talk about the economic ripples.

"This is a strange event because it could very realistically give us a return to slightly stronger (economic) growth in 2002," she says. That's because spending on reconstruction and defense, and the move by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, will add fuel to the economy.

As long as consumer spending doesn't remain weak for an extended period of time, Swonk says, by this time next year the greater economic concerns could be rising inflation, rising interest rates and rising budget deficits — basically, an economy that's going too fast.

Swonk and other economists agree it's ludicrous to say any positive possibility outweighs the tragedy of the attacks. But such ripples may offset some of the economic consequences.

For some companies, and not just those making flags, the attacks have actually meant more business. Sales of guns, security equipment, air charters and survival gear have soared.

And in industries where business is suffering, consumers may benefit.

There's a good chance home heating oil prices this winter will be substantially lower than they would have been otherwise. Oil prices have fallen because of concerns about the global economy and because of an anticipated sharp drop in demand for jet fuel. Monday alone, oil prices dropped 15%. That was the biggest single-day decline since the start of U.S. attacks during the Gulf War in January 1991.

At auto showrooms around the nation, automakers are offering no-interest loans to lure skittish buyers. Ford and GM dealers report sales are nearly back to their pre-attacks pace.

For those who want to travel, there will be bargains. Western gamblers are finding that now's the time to head for Las Vegas: Casinos have slashed rates and are advertising that fact heavily in cities within a reasonable drive.

Tourism reeling

Right now, of course, the negative effects are much easier to see as they ripple across the nation.

The human losses are unlike anything suffered on U.S. soil since the Civil War. And for the first time since World War II, when Hawaii was attacked and residents along the coasts feared either German submarines or Japanese suicide bombers, Americans are living in fear of being attacked at home.

Layer on top of that the real, not the theoretical, economic news.

Boeing's job cuts, for example, will put more downward pressure on Washington state's economy as nervous workers pull back on spending. Deborah Byrd, 46, of Puyallup, Wash., works at Boeing's plant in Kent, applying silk screen letters to control panels. Last week, she went to a local fair, "where I usually buy a lot of things for Christmas. This time, I didn't buy anything. I felt I can't afford it."

The sharp decline in travel and tourism is being felt elsewhere and in other ways:

In the mountain West, the autumn big-game hunting season is a make-or-break time financially for many small towns. In Colorado, the average out-of-town hunter might spend $3,000 or more.

Already, tighter restrictions on transporting weapons on commercial airliners are forcing some out-of-state hunters to alter their plans. "We got a call from a person in West Virginia who's been waiting 12 years (for a license) to hunt mountain goats in Colorado," says Tyler Baskfield of the Colorado Division of Wildlife. "He finally got one, but he couldn't get his bow on the plane." The archery hunter was eventually able to ship his gear via an air-freight service. But officials say many other hunters likely won't be coming this year.

In South Florida, water recreation hasn't been closed — but it might as well be. At the Bahia Mar marina in Fort Lauderdale, made famous in the Travis McGee mystery series by John D. McDonald, fleets of sporty rental boats remain at dock. There are no takers for rented spins past pricey waterfront real estate. Only a handful of tourists climb aboard the 550-seat riverboat, the Jungle Queen. The deep-sea fishing boats sit idle. Tourists just aren't coming to the area.

"Our business is extremely slow. We're way, way off," says fishing charter captain Rick Brady, 51. "Some of these guys haven't been out for 2 weeks." Local officials estimate the Fort Lauderdale area is losing $7 million a day in tourist revenue.

The nation's psyche

Underneath all the effects, though, is the sense that Americans have been drawn together by the events of Sept. 11, 2001. That day has had a profound impact on the nation's psyche.

Along with Bush's approval rating, support for the military has surged. Across the nation, recruiters report a sharp increase in interest among young people. Polls show strong support for reinstituting the draft, if necessary.

Livingstone, the terrorism expert, says the attackers underestimated the way Americans can come together.

"If life's not going to be the same in America, it's sure as hell not going to be the same for those guys either," he says of the terrorists. "If they've got life insurance, they'd better get the policy out" because the American military is coming after them with near unanimous support from the American people.

At sporting events last weekend, fans actually sang along during The Star Spangled Banner and God Bless America. Recordings of inspirational songs such as Lee Greenwood's God Bless the USA and Tom Petty's I Won't Back Down drew loud cheers. And people are showing their feelings in more subtle ways.

At a competition this weekend for high school marching bands in Herndon, Va., a suburban community about 25 miles from the Pentagon, the band from Westfield High School surprised the spectators. Instead of launching into its choreographed program, set to music from Disney's Tarzan, the band first stood at attention to play God Bless America.

Within moments, as they realized what was happening, the several thousand parents, students and other spectators were on their feet. Hats held over hearts. Talk of kids put on hold. In their own way, standing with their country.

Contributing: Patrick McMahon in Seattle; Patrick O'Driscoll in Denver; Deborah Sharp in Fort Lauderdale; Gary Strauss in Washington; WGRZ-TV in Buffalo; WKYC-TV in Cleveland

-- Anonymous, September 26, 2001

Answers

I was going to post about changes I'm seeing at work.

One of my peers has just given notice. Her husband is currently in graduate school in northern New England. It has made for a rough weekend commute. He's ex-Navy and they're both pretty well grounded, but figured out that with the other logistical problems of their current arrangement, having her so far away during the week and working in a Boston high rise may not be an acceptable idea. I didn't think she'd be around much longer given her circumstances, but the timeline suddenly moved up.

Meanwhile, I was discussing her imminent departure with the third environmental paralegal, my age (40s) with child. The one who is leaving will be very tough to replace. The one who is staying commented that it will be more difficult to find someone (perhaps she meant a woman) our age because our collective priorities have changed because of recent events.

I had grown so used to the parallel universe I was living in (GIs/DGIs) during y2k, and a general inability to speak about it freely off the 'net, but it is very bizarre to see most everyone on the same page now.

-- Anonymous, September 26, 2001

About 28 years ago, my then-young son and I were rounding a corner in downtown New Orleans and came upon a hotel fire. I can't remember how tall, perhaps 20 stories. About seven women, trapped by the fire, chose to jump rather than be burned to death and we witnessed one of them before I could turn around and leave. It was at that time I learned here was no fire equipment capable of rescue over six stories. I do not think that has changed. There are helicopters (which were useless because of the thick smoke and flames at the WTC) and some tall buildings have on their top floors cable equipment which would enable victims to slide via a pulley system to the nearest high-rise (also useless in the case of the WTC).

As it happened, I worked on the 3rd floor of an older building, perhaps 30s vintage, so had no problems returning to work. However, later I worked on high floors of highrises and the memory of that fire was never far away, particularly since only the top floor of the hotel had burned and I saw the repaired building frequently. It took many years for the fear to go away--at least 10-15 years, I'd guess.

And now I'm in a small town with very few high-rises and a husband who works in a one-story building. I've commented a couple of times since WTC how relieved I am that Sweetie no longer works in a multi-story building, as he did a few years ago. It's no guarantee that there won't be a problem, man-made or accidental, but it has to be a lot safer than a high-rise.

If any good has come out of this ghastly business, then it seems to be that people have become aware that it can happen to them--whatever "it" is--and it's been manifested in the large number of vignettes which begin with "all they did was go to work that day." It's a large step from awareness to keeping a stash or bug-out bag, but that may yet come.

-- Anonymous, September 26, 2001

So, people in very tall buildings should stash a parachute? Seems the only other way out.

In the case of WTC, if the top floor poeple had used parachutes to escape, could they have navigated far enough away from the building to avoid landing in the debris area?

What is the minimum height for deploying a parachute and how hard would it be in a city where the wind changes direction depending on what street you're on?

I never gave it a thought when I worked on the fifteenth floor of a building here, but when the company moved to a 4 story, and we were on the top floor, it became an issue because the building was surrounded by trees which made it hard to access by fire truck ladder. During the time I was there, they did cut the trees back, and boy did it get hot up there.

Now I am in a one story building, very large, working in the middle of it, and we do have fire drills once or twice a year. Recently we had one that turned out to be real, but wsn't anything dangerous. The cook in the cafeteria had burned something and the smoke set off the alarm, we exited the building in good time, and then were almost run down by the fire truck. LOL

The fact is, the mail is a highly flammable thing to work with, and the dust from it can ignite quickly and suddenly, I am told. Some of us are very careful.

-- Anonymous, September 26, 2001

I have many fears fire is right up there..I washed in horror a barn burn with horses inside....and NO ONE could do ANYTHING...couldn't even try the heat and smoke was so intense...I still have nightmares of fear induced horse screams.

-- Anonymous, September 26, 2001

Don't think parachutes would work. When you have a cluster of tall building like that, the "skyscraper canyon" effect comes in. Winds rush about, gusting like mad, and might well smash a parachutist into a building. However, if that were my only chance, I think I'd take it.

(I think the folks who do those stunts from tall buildings do it before the air heats up and becomes agitated.)

-- Anonymous, September 26, 2001

Then there was that parasailer who got himself tangled up in the Statue of Liberty recently.

-- Anonymous, September 26, 2001