LATimes

U.S. Believes More Attacks Are Planned Strategy: Intelligence officials say Bin Laden likely laid out his next moves in anticipation of an American military retaliation.

By JOSH MEYER, Times Staff Writer

WASHINGTON -- U.S. intelligence officials believe that Osama bin Laden long ago began orchestrating a significant terrorist counterpunch to what he expects would be certain U.S. retaliation for the attacks on New York and Washington, a Bush administration official said Saturday.

The official said there is "no doubt" that a response is coming from Bin Laden to anticipated United States military strikes.

"He has gamed out the next two or three moves already. He expects us to respond to the World Trade Center, and he has the next move planned after that," the official said.

"You don't take as much time as he has and not have planned several moves," added the official, speaking only on condition of anonymity. "It's not about bloodying our nose and putting fear into us. He has a broader, strategic objective."

That assessment is shared by top intelligence and counter-terrorism experts, the official said, and has been conveyed to top political, diplomatic and military advisors and other high-ranking members of the Bush administration. It is based on intelligence information, a detailed assessment of how Bin Laden and his Al Qaeda network operate, and interrogations of people detained in the United States and Europe in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

The president has identified Bin Laden and Al Qaeda as the prime suspects in the suicide hijackings, which killed nearly 7,000 people. Bin Laden is also believed to be responsible for the bombings of two U.S. embassies in Africa in 1998 and the terrorist attack on the U.S. destroyer Cole in Yemen last year.

Authorities fear that the Bin Laden operatives who would carry out such terrorist attacks may already be in place, hidden and ready to go--just as they were before Sept. 11.

To find them, the administration has deployed federal agents and intelligence operatives across the United States and around the world. To date, however, it still does not know whether retaliatory attacks would be launched within the United States or against American civilian, commercial and military targets elsewhere in the world, the official said.

"His men have outstanding operational security, they are meticulous, their plans are well thought out and they are in it for religious and ideological goals," the official said of Bin Laden. "If we had the answers to those questions--when, where and how--we'd all be heroes. If Sept. 11 taught us anything, it was to not use the previous template of their attack profile as a guide. They hit a different target every time."

Federal law enforcement authorities confirmed Saturday that they have received classified briefings dealing with just such a situation, in which retaliatory strikes are launched by terrorists once the United States begins a military operation aimed at getting Bin Laden, his network and other terrorists.

"We know that there are other terrorists out there and that the threats could be growing," said one federal law enforcement official. "What we have to do now is just be prepared."

Another federal law enforcement source confirmed that a significant number of federal agents are not participating in the current investigation into the attacks. Instead, they are being held in reserve in anticipation of possible secondary attacks.

Authorities have shared their information about expected future attacks with counter-terrorism officials in Europe and elsewhere.

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer had no direct comment Saturday on whether the administration thinks Bin Laden and his operatives have already laid the groundwork for further attacks.

"I'm not going to speculate on a hypothetical on top of a hypothetical," Fleischer said. "But there is no question that terrorism presents a challenge to the country. It has in the past, and it may do so again. And that is why the president has demonstrated such resolve in going to battle against terrorists and nations that harbor them so we can forever reduce their ability to strike anyone anywhere."

Maj. Tim Blair, a Pentagon spokesman, when asked about the view of Bin Laden's planned response to U.S. attack, said, "All of that is either [about] operations or intelligence. Those are categories we are just not prepared to talk about."

Administration sources also confirmed Saturday that they think three men now in custody were in some way connected to terrorist plots. They are trying to determine if the three men were involved in either the Sept. 11 attacks or were part of some future terrorist acts that would follow U.S. military strikes against Bin Laden and his network.

One of those men, Habib Zacharias Moussaoui, was detained in Minnesota a month before the suicide hijackings of four planes on Sept. 11. The other two, Mohammed Jaweed Azmath and Ayub Ali Khan, were taken into custody on an Amtrak train in Texas on Sept. 12; the commercial airliner they had been flying on was grounded in St. Louis just hours after the hijacked planes crashed into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and a field in rural Pennsylvania.

The remarks by the official mark the first time that the Bush administration has said it believes Bin Laden and Al Qaeda already have in place follow-up attacks and an infrastructure for carrying them out.

In the last several weeks, administration officials have warned that they think there exists a "clear and present danger" of more terrorist attacks. In a wide-ranging investigation, authorities have arrested or detained more than 480 people, temporarily grounded crop-duster planes and scoured records for information about people licensed to transport hazardous materials.

The administration is wary of sending soldiers or special forces into a trap, the official said, or of being perceived as provoking another deadly wave of terrorism.

According to the official, Bin Laden "assumes we'll strike at Afghanistan. The theory is that he has two or three [responses] already keyed up. He assumes we will fail and that they can immediately strike back. But even if he dies, plans for his organization continue and whatever attack is out there is on a dead switch; the people are in place and the authorization is there so that if a military strike comes, they will put it in motion."

In other developments Saturday, arrests and additional information appeared to support evidence of ties between some of the 19 suspected hijackers and individuals living in Europe.

German authorities announced that they had arrested three men connected to a suspect in the Sept. 11 attacks, on charges of planning terrorist acts against German targets.

The Federal Prosecutor's Office in Karlsruhe described the three men as a Turkish citizen and two Yemenis, and said they tracked the suspects through their Internet activity to a Wiesbaden apartment. By doing so, authorities said, they linked the men to Said Bahaji, a 26-year-old German national of Moroccan origin who is wanted in connection with the suicide hijackings.

The three men--identified only as 27-year-old Talip T. of Turkey and Wadee Al-A., 24, and Shahab Al-A., 26, of Yemen--had Internet links to Bahaji's Web site, authorities said. That site included advice for joining Muslim fighters in the Caucasus region of the former Soviet Union and for financial support of Afghanistan's ruling Taliban, according to the office of Federal Prosecutor Kay Nehm.

German authorities have established no direct link between those three men and the suicide hijackers, who belonged to a terrorist cell in Hamburg, the prosecutor's office said in a statement.

German police also stepped up security at the British consulate in Hamburg and were said to be investigating as many as six Arab suspects in a plot against the facility.

More details also emerged Saturday about Lofti Raissi, the first suspect officially accused of helping the hijackers prepare for their attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Raissi, a 27-year-old Algerian pilot arrested in Britain, is suspected of being the lead flight instructor for four of the hijackers.

Records and interviews show that he rented a flight simulator at the Sawyer School for Aviation in Phoenix, according to Sylvia Stinson, the school's former chief flight instructor.

-- Anonymous, September 29, 2001

Answers

Bin Laden prepares new attacks

SPECIAL TO WORLD TRIBUNE.COM

Sunday, September 30, 2001

LONDON — Saudi billionaire fugitive Osama Bin Laden is preparing to launch new terrorist attacks over next few weeks, according to information obtained by western intelligence.

Officials said Bin Laden is believed to have ordered his agents in both Europe and the United States to scan targets and prepare spectacular strikes that could resemble those of the Islamic suicide attacks on New York and Washington on Sept. 11.

Bin Laden's plans have alarmed both London and Washington as well as several European capitals, Middle East Newsline reports. Officials said their concern is based on intelligence information obtained over the last two weeks.

"I understand he is preparing for high-impact terrorist attacks in the coming weeks, if he's able to," British Minister for Europe Peter Hain said. "We've got to track him down. We've got to stop him."

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw agreed. Straw told the British Broadcasting Corp. that Bin Laden is preparing attacks. Western intelligence agencies, he said, do not know Bin Laden's targets.

"There continues to be a risk of them making further attacks," Straw said. "We don't know exactly where. On the one hand none of us wish to raise anxiety in the minds of the public, but we would be complacent and irresponsible not to warn of the risks."

Officials both in London and Washington assess that Bin Laden has hundreds of agents based in Europe and the United States on call for suicide attacks. They said the attacks could be launched even if Bin Laden is killed in a U.S. military campaign against terrorism.

On Sunday, the London-based Observer weekly reported that Britain and the United States would launch an attack on Bin Laden within two days. Other reports said U.S. commandos are already operating in Afghanistan.

Earlier this week a leading Arabic daily reported that Pakistan and the United States have agreed to launch a campaign to overthrow the ruling Afghan Taliban movement within days. The London-based Al Hayat reported on Wednesday that Islamabad and Washington have agreed to cooperate with the northern-based Afghan opposition in a drive to oust Taliban from Kabul. But the newspaper said the Bush administration and Congress do not agree on any military campaign against Taliban.

The newspaper quoted Russian sources as saying that a military campaign against Taliban could begin as early as between Thursday and Saturday. Such a campaign, the sources said, would be used by Russian President Vladimir Putin for a military offensive against Chechen rebels.

The sources said Britain and the United States will probably begin with a massive air attack on Taliban installations in Afghanistan. They said U.S. units have arrived in neighboring Uzbekistan for such an assault and have taken over Dushanbe airport, the largest in Central Asia.

Over the last week, Washington has been consulting with Russia over intelligence estimates regarding the military strength of Taliban. The assessment is that Taliban has about 30 Soviet-era tanks, none of them more modern than either the T-62 or T-55 models.

Taliban is also believed to have between 15 and 20 MiG-21 fighter-jets as well as the Sukhoi-22. Russian sources said Taliban is also said to have a limited arsenal of Scud ground-to-ground missiles and U.S.-made Stinger shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles.

But in Washington, U.S. officials have not ruled out the prospect that Taliban or Bin Laden might use chemical weapons against U.S. troops. The Washington Times reported on Wednesday that Bin Laden has acquired from Russian organized crime groups components for weapons of mass destruction. The newspaper said Bin Laden might also have a nuclear weapons laboratory inside Afghanistan.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon ordered 2,000 more reservists to duty. Later, the House approved a $343 billion defense bill that diverted $400 million in funds from missile defense to counterterrorism efforts. In all, $6 billion has been allocated for counterterrorism.

-- Anonymous, September 30, 2001

On the other hand, this could all be part of the disinfomation war. It could be that bin Laden put all his funds into the WTC attacks -- supporting a bunch of pilots for several years isn't cheap -- and he's all talk at this point until he can raise more cash.

I know, I know. I can hope, can't I?

-- Anonymous, September 30, 2001

Well, whoever is behind the disaster, you can bet they have a whole "war game" planned. Maybe it's just bin Laden, but I seriously doubt that. Even so, it seems we are playing right into his hands now. Isn't the present offensive exactly what most people thought it would be, and wouldn't that be exactly what the "perps" were planning on. I mean, seriously, you don't put together such a spectacular multiple hit they way they did if you're only some rag-head goofball.

-- Anonymous, September 30, 2001