Heads up! US Window For Military Action Narrowing By Paul Taylor 10-3-1

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The time window for U.S.-led military action in Afghanistan is narrowing fast and several indicators point to a possible strike any time from early next week, experts believe.

As it builds up massive forces within striking distance of Afghanistan, Washington is playing down the prospect of imminent action against Islamic militant Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network and their protectors in the ruling Taliban movement.

Three weeks after the suicide airliner attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York and the Pentagon near Washington, U.S. officials are still requesting help from partners as diverse as Saudi Arabia, Russia, NATO, Pakistan and Uzbekistan.

But a host of factors including politicians' travel plans, the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, public opinion, the weather and Muslim holidays all point to a short window of opportunity for action between October 8 and mid-November.

"Clearly things can't wait very much longer. They have a few short weeks. It may be a question of days rather than weeks," a Western defence attaché said on Wednesday.

There was a danger of the global coalition supporting U.S. action unravelling and Western public support for the use of force dwindling if Washington delayed much longer.

Most of the political preliminaries are done. The Taliban have rejected U.S. President George W. Bush's ultimatum to hand over bin Laden. NATO and the European Union have fully endorsed a U.S. riposte and Russia has thrown its support behind the "war on terrorism".

The United States has also arm-twisted Israel and the Palestinians into a semblance of a ceasefire and sought to meet Muslim concerns by voicing support for a Palestinian state.

BARELY A MONTH TO ACT

U.S. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is on a tour of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Oman and Uzbekistan trying to pin down the use of key facilities and other support.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair is due to visit Pakistan and possibly other countries from Friday. Analysts assume military action would not start while they are away from home.

At the same time, humanitarian aid convoys are reaching Kabul with an apparent green light from Washington to take relief supplies to Afghan civilians before any U.S. strike.

Christopher Langton, military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said there was barely a month to act before the icy Afghan winter set in and made it hard to use helicopters, ground troops or special forces.

Diplomatic, domestic political and military factors all pointed to early action, but Bush's final decision would depend on whether Washington had vital intelligence on bin Laden's whereabouts, he said.

"They're not going to do it without that crucial information that assures them that they will have a result that they can show to public opinion," the former British army colonel said.

Diplomatic sources said Washington and London would also be keen to complete operations before the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan begins in mid-November to spare religious sensitivities.

Diplomats have said that U.S. and British special forces are already operating inside Afghanistan.

Langton said scouts would have to be in position to mark targets for air and missile strikes and to conduct on-the-spot damage assessment afterwards, since satellite reconnaissance would not detect whether fighters hiding in mountain caves and tunnels had been hit.

While there appeared to be no intention to send in sizeable ground forces, the United States and Britain would want to have sufficient mountain-trained troops in the area to carry out search-and-rescue operations if necessary, he said.

ENOUGH ASSETS IN THEATRE

The Western military attache said Washington and London already had enough aircraft, missile-firing ships and troops in the theatre of operations or on their way there.

The United States has been granted use of bases in former Soviet Central Asian republics, overflight and base facilities by Turkey and use of Pakistani airspace, he said.

However, operational planning has been complicated by Saudi Arabia's refusal to allow U.S. forces based there to take part in air strikes on Afghanistan and some uncertainty about the extent of Pakistani support, the attache said.

Key challenges would include air-to-air refuelling of strike and reconnaissance aircraft, naval refuelling and the recovery and "extraction" of any servicemen lost in action.

Even close U.S. allies say they have no inside information on when military action might begin, but they point to the rising war rhetoric, particularly from Blair on Tuesday, and the crescendo of diplomatic preparations.

Blair declared that the Taliban faced the choice between surrendering bin Laden and surrendering power, and warned that strikes would "eliminate their military hardware, disrupt their supplies, (and) target their troops".

"I know nothing, but I wouldn't make any firm plans beyond the weekend if I were you," one NATO insider said.

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-- Anonymous, October 03, 2001

Answers

Thanks for the article. Very good information! Also want to add, Iran said we could use thier air space. Problems with India, because of the killing of some of their people and they are takking of taking revenge out on Pakestan. A tinder box indeed!

-- Anonymous, October 04, 2001