Knight-Ridder

Homeland chief says bin Laden might launch another attack to prove relevance

By Steve Goldstein Knight Ridder Newspapers

WASHINGTON - With the Taliban retreating and in seeming disarray, Osama bin Laden may be more dangerous and unpredictable than ever.

U.S. officials and terrorism experts say there is reason to believe the fugitive terror mastermind and his al-Qaida network will depart from a pattern of well-spaced, meticulously planned assaults and launch a more hastily conceived attack on the United States to rally followers.

Homeland Security Director Tom Ridge and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said the rout of the Taliban has increased the possibility that bin Laden - with his own security at risk - could lash out with an 11th-hour attack on America.

"If bin Laden and al-Qaida believe their reputations have been diminished because of the success of our military campaign, they may decide to demonstrate to the world that they are still a force," Ridge said through a spokesman Wednesday. "We've got to be ready."

Rumsfeld said Wednesday as he toured the ruins of the World Trade Center that U.S. forces had stepped up the search for bin Laden and other al-Qaida and Taliban leaders. If bin Laden is located and killed, his death could trigger a fresh terror assault.

"There would be an effort to show bin Laden lives, even if we take him out," said Leonard Cole, a Rutgers University terrorism expert.

Bin Laden's recent statements - including a dubious assertion that he has access to nuclear weapons - suggest an increasing sense of desperation and urgency, analysts said.

In a video allegedly circulated in late October to al-Qaida members, bin Laden said, "The battle has been moved inside America, and we shall continue until we win this battle, or die in the cause and meet our maker." The video is mentioned in documents on bin Laden released Wednesday by British Prime Minister Tony Blair's office.

Jerrold Post, a terrorism profiler who once worked for the CIA, said that bin Laden's recent statements were "over the top . . . I can almost see him spinning out of control.

"This feels increasingly grandiose and megalomanic," said Post, who teaches at George Washington University. "Maybe he would be inclined to act."

Hamid Mir, a Pakistani journalist who claims that earlier this month he was driven, blindfolded, from Kabul to a rendezvous with bin Laden, said the Saudi-born fugitive, was a "changed" man who appeared "hard-hitting and aggressive" in contrast to a relaxed demeanor in previous interviews.

Mir said Bin Laden told him that the Taliban and al-Qaida were setting a trap. "We are waiting for the Americans and Britishers to come inside Afghanistan and then the real war will be started."

Homeland chief Ridge, without citing a specific threat, said that it was "common sense" to expect a fresh terror assault.

Rumsfeld said Pentagon officials are concerned that al-Qaida might attempt "a last-ditch terrorist attack," adding that this worry would not affect military planning.

Historically, terror attacks attributed to al-Qaida have not come in bunches but rather have been spaced apart, allowing time for planning and training and maximizing the element of surprise.

Among those events are the October 1993 attack on U.S. forces in Somalia that killed 18 soldiers, the August 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the October 2000 boat bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen and the Sept. 11 hijacking attacks on the World Trace Center and Pentagon.

Al-Qaida associate Ramzi Ahmed Yousef was also the leader of the first bomb attack on the World Trade Center in 1993.

Only once, experts say, has al-Qaida been driven to act at a specific time. In December 1999, an attempt to bomb Los Angeles International Airport as part of a millennium attack was foiled by the arrest of bin Laden associate Ahmed Ressam at the Canadian border in Washington state.

Terrorism scholar Yonah Alexander said that it would be folly to rely on the previous pattern of attacks by al-Qaida. Over the short term, he said, tactics will change.

"They are in the midst of a war. The time to strike is any time," said Alexander, a fellow at the Potomac Institute of Policy Studies, a Virginia-based think tank. "Instead of a big spectacular attack, there could be smaller ones - at a mall, a truck bomb, there is no end of possibilities.

"They have to react because they have to show they are alive and kicking," he said.

Steven Emerson, a Washington-based researcher who tracks Muslim terror organizations, said that bin Laden has been using videotapes and the messages delivered to the al Jazeera TV network to mobilize his followers.

In the past, said Emerson, associates brought terror plans to bin Laden for his approval. Now he said it's likely that bin Laden has "left the timing (of the attacks) to others."

Emerson cited bin Laden's lengthy "declaration of war" issued in 1996 as evidence that members of the al-Qaida network do not need specific direction from their leader.

"Terrorizing you, while you are carrying arms on our land, is a legitimate and morally demanded duty," said the so-called "Ladenese epistle," which goes on to praise young Muslim fighters.

"Those youths are different from your soldiers. Your problem will be how to convince your troops to fight, while our problem will be how to restrain our youths to wait for their turn in fighting and in operations."

Since Sept. 11, the Justice Department and the FBI have twice issued heightened security alerts based on credible evidence that terror attacks might be imminent.

Would a nation anticipating an attack, guarded by thousands of well-briefed law enforcement officers, act as a deterrent?

Bruce Hoffman of the RAND think tank, who has been studying terrorists for years, believes the alert may simply serve as a challenge.

"I'm not sure al-Qaida has a set modus operandi," said Hoffman. "I think they are driven by opportunism."

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

Answers

My own personal feeling is that he might very well initiate another attack, and soon, since he is under so much pressure in Afghanistan. If he does order another attack it could also be far more deadly than the simple use of planes to hit a couple of isolated targets. I think at this point he would be inclined to do something that caused the entire US government/military to be seriously crippled.

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

Gordon,

I feel much like you do. Somehow I doubt that the plans on the table on Sept. 11th were the only plans. I think they have things planned out for the future, and are currently just hoping that they hang around long enough to see one (or more) carried out. I have no doubt that they are coming, it is just a matter of when, where, what, and how bad.

Having said that, I found it strange that hubby had to go to some sort of "chemical weapons" training today. He commented that he hadn't had to do that for 18 years. Escape from a room full I suppose. Chem suits... hmmmm... looking around at the hunting clothing, I figure I gots me exactly what I need for a chem suit, based upon what is being issued to them.

Wishing I was outside playing on possibly one of the last beautiful days of the fall, apoc

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

Strikes me that it is a little late for OBL to lash out now, should have done it before we threw his entire local network into chaos (assuming that's what happened).

I think 9/11 was about finishing the 1993 attempt at demolishing the WTC. Also, I recall that a few weeks ago we thought we understood that he had given the green light for any other plans to go ahead.

It's possible that 9/11 was the only major action and the rest will just be noise. OTOH, I'm allergic to loud noises...

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

Brooks,

I remember watching some of the news early on, with the NA whining about needing weapons and such, and wondering why we hadn't armed them. If I recall correctly, the justification for us not arming them was that we didn't want to give them arms which they had no idea of how to use. Tanks were a good example. They wouldn't have had any idea how to turn one of ours on, let alone how to aim the sucker and shoot it. Guess we didn't want to waste the time in training them, as we thought it more important to send the big message from the air.

Seems like I heard just a couple of days ago, that they are now toting around "newer" equipment, but the guns are still 20-30 years old and are Russian. I'm sure we bought them, but at least they aren't our technology. But then again, there isn't really that much technology in a bullet.

I have heard that we have directly supplied them with warm blankets and shoes. I'm sure their stomaches are a little fuller now than they had been in the months before this all started.

apoc

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

How did my immediate answer above get on this thread? I thought I posted it to the other thread.....

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

cybertelepathy??

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

Now, ya see? It happened to apoc!!! It's not just old gittism after all. THank God for that.

Okay, back to the movie. In the readings of his rantings (that has a nice ring to it), I note that Osama has a bit of a fixation on what we did to Hiroshima and Nagasaki and says nothing compares to those actions--on civilian populations. If--and it's a very big IF--OBL has nukes, we might think on that a bit more. I asked Sweetie what kind of cities they were; he said industrial, Nagasaki (I think he said) was a center of plane manufacture. This might offer some insight into what OBL would like to do next. What's a big center of plane manufacture in the US? Yep, right, Kip, are ya listening?

Pure, pure speculation, mind wandering about, absolutely nothing to base this on except a vivid imagination.

Could be nothing more has happened yet because the perps have been caught in the arrests, or at least enough of them so that new plans have to be made, maybe new operatives trained. Could be they're waiting for a specific time. Maybe Christmas Day? Who knows, none of us can think like a completely bonkers terrorist.

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001