I will be up early Sunday morn to try and catch sight of the falling stars! Just think how many wishes we can make? Hope it is a clear morning! What about the rest of you? Will you be watching?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,38779,00.html

Leonid Meteor Shower Will Be Best 'in Our Lifetimes,' Astronomers Say

Wednesday, November 14, 2001

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Brew some coffee. Unpack the lawn chairs. Astronomers predict this year's Leonid meteor display, expected to appear before dawn Sunday, will be a dazzler worth missing a little sleep.

"It's now or never," said Robert Naeye of the Astronomy Society of the Pacific. "Astronomers don't think we'll see another storm like this one until the year 2099. We will probably never see a better meteor shower in our lifetimes."

Every year scientists fly to places like the Gobi Desert or Canary Islands to watch the heavens rain fire for a few minutes in November. This year, Earth's alignment suggests that North America will be squarely beneath some of the most vigorous shooting stars. Pacific Islands and the Far East may see natural fireworks, too.

The most optimistic celestial forecasts call for a steady storm of 4,000 meteors per hour, or about 70 per minute around 5 a.m. EST Sunday. With clear skies, luck and the bonus of a nearly moonless night, people in some locations could see twice that.

The Leonids are dust particles shed by Comet Temple-Tuttle. Like a truck barreling down a dirt road, the comet trails a cloud of dust as it orbits the sun once every 33 years.

The meteors are called Leonids because they appear to radiate from the constellation Leo, the Lion. A really big meteor is equal to a grain of rice.

Earth usually crosses a thin section of the Leonids trail; perhaps 10 meteors per hour streak across the night sky.

When the comet sweeps close to the sun, the sun's heat causes it to shed more debris like a truck hitting a mud puddle. Earth gets splattered when it plows though the thick wake. It occurs every November for a few years until the particles dissipate.

In 1966, observers couldn't count the shooting stars fast enough. Estimates ranged as high as 150,000 per hour.

Comet Temple-Tuttle most recently orbited the sun in February 1998, and since then, in the words of forecaster Joe Rao, the Leonids have "gone berserk."

While meteor displays thrill amateur stargazers, they also hold scientific promise. Comets are hurtling balls of ice and debris left over from the birth of the solar system more than 4 billion years ago.

The particles contain basic elements like iron, as well as carbon-based molecules. Some scientists believe this is how Earth was seeded with organic compounds.

"The chemical precursors to life -- found in comet dust -- may well have survived a plunge into early Earth's atmosphere," said NASA scientist Peter Jenniskens, who directs airborne surveys of the Leonids.

Earthbound viewers are safe during a meteor shower because the tiny particles tend to burn 15 miles from Earth. In fact, the visible meteor actually is the streak of light caused by the particle, or meteoroid, that is generating friction against the atmosphere.

But in space, the tiniest debris behaves like a speeding bullet. Satellite operators are turning their orbiting equipment edge-on into the storm so delicate sensors and solar energy arrays will not be crippled by the barrage.

Predicting the Leonids' vigor has become an annual competition. Previously educated guesswork meteor predictions are now the products of sophisticated computer models, enabling scientists to nail the storm peaks within a few minutes. This year, the Earth will pass through multiple debris trails shed by the comet as long ago as 1699.

"The comet is almost 4 years behind us now," said Rao, who handicaps the Leonids for Sky & Telescope magazine and the American Museum of Natural History in New York. "The predictions are all over the place."

Tom Van Flandern of Meta Research in Chevy Chase, Md., a non-profit astronomy group, predicts "no fewer than five streams will pass close to the Earth, so that weak (meteor) storms may persist for several hours before the predicted strong one arrives."

How strong? Jenniskens is the most optimistic forecaster. He predicts the Leonids will peak at 4,200 per hour at 5:09 a.m. Sunday over the East Coast, 2:09 a.m. over the West Coast. Others predict a peak of 1,300 to 2,000 per hour.

Predictions elsewhere vary as widely. One group expects a bigger storm eight hours later over the Far East; William Cooke of NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center predicts no more than 800 meteors per hour over the Far East.

With so much uncertainty, most U.S. meteor chasers have decided to stay home this year. Circumstances following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks have affected some plans; airspace restrictions probably will ground Jenniskens' airborne mission.

Naeye is joining an astronomers gathering at the Kitt Peak observatory in southern Arizona, where the skies should be dark and the weather dry.

"The U.S. will get a pretty good show," Naeye said. "Everything is lining up just right."

Tips for Watching

Astronomers expect this year's Leonid meteor shower to peak during a half-hour period around 5 a.m. EST on Sunday, when as many as 70 meteors a minute could streak across the sky. If the weather is clear, the shower should be visible from all North American locations.

To best view the shower, head to a dark location far from city lights. The meteors should be visible across the sky, appearing to radiate from the east, in the direction of the constellation Leo that gives the shower its name.

Only a lawn chair, warm clothes and the naked eye are required. Binoculars or telescopes are not necessary.

Many astronomy clubs and observatories plan to hold meteor shower-gazing parties.

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

Answers

I WANT to -- gotta figure out somewhere I can go that has little light pollution, open view (few trees), and where I won't get shot by a suspicious property owner or bit by their dog! Maybe someone will organize a party. Gotta find my biggest thermos for something hot to drink. But, right now, they say it's going to be cloudy here, so maybe I won't be able to see anything! :-[

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

I am hoping that these clear nights will remain through Sunday, we have three perfect viewing hills ( the tops of our three hayfields) that are out of range from the barnyard security light, and offer 360 degrees of totally unobstructed viewing, far from any light or pollution source to dim the view!!!

I hope the rain stays away till Monday like the weather man says, every night so far the past week I have seen a shooting star to the northeast around 1 am, must be the precursors of the Leonids. I was watching the deer graze the tops of the strawberry plants in the garden not 50 feet from the bedroom window and got to see the meteors as an extra added bonus.

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

Thanks for the heads-up trend.........I am marking it on my calendar and hoping for clear skies!!!

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

Will someone give me a call around two?

Thanks

Wildman

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

Joy....go on out to Earthquake Jake's Fine Sportin' Horses (and Pool Emporium)!! (is that far enough out?)

-- Anonymous, November 15, 2001

Sadly, Julie, I think that's getting too close to the lights of his little town. But maybe out on County B . . ..

-- Anonymous, November 16, 2001

I hope so, but it doesn't look good. Even as I speak, it is raining hammers and pitchforks, and Sunday morning forecast does not look good. Going to keep my fingers crossed though . . . missing a meteor shower is such a waste of free entertainment.

-- Anonymous, November 16, 2001

Visibility should be good here in Maine for the meteors. Supposed to be clear...now if I can just drag myself out from under the 'lectric blanket!!!

-- Anonymous, November 16, 2001

Drag the electric blanket out WITH you.

Years ago, my brother and I dragged out the lawn loungers, cocooned ourselves in sleeping bags and quilts and laid out to watch the shower. It was well worth it, but I was freezing my patootie off and finally gave up and went indoors. My brother was snoring, so I left him...never could figure out why he was preturbed with me for leaving him there. He was comfy enough to go to sleep, so what was the problem?

I may make a special trip out to the horse barn for this. All that open sky over the pastures, no lights! Altho, I could just go down to the local soccer field, it's a whole lot closer.

-- Anonymous, November 16, 2001

Julie, funny story there about your brother, wonder if it had been the other way around and you had fallen asleep if he would have awaken you!?

Well, it's not looking too good here, the fires in Kentucky are sending us a bunch of haze,the hills are smokey and overcast. Yesterday when the sun came up it was like a pink marble, you could look straight at it, very strange. This morning the smog is like cotton candy and I cannot even see into Farmer Shaws field across the road. So, don't know if I will get to see any of the metoirs or not, but I'm gonna be up and trying. Hope ya all have better circumstances.

-- Anonymous, November 17, 2001

DUH! That is such a great idea, Julie. I should have thought of it :-)! We're planning on sitting out on the back porch to watch so we'll just curl up in the electric blankie. Kinda romantic...I'll keep my fingers crossed anyways!!

-- Anonymous, November 17, 2001

For once, we are expecting clear skies (in November in the Pac NW, that's pretty amazing! Especially after the monsoons we've been having!)

We plan on staying up to watch 'em. We're going to a play tonight (Sat) and hopefully, we can stay up afterwards...maybe in the hot tub (we have a clear roof over it, as well as good views out the sides.) We have previously tried the lawn chair approach to star gazing, with subsequent sore necks, so be advised. Fully reclined on a blanket or sleeping bag would be more comfortable; however, you run the risk of falling asleeeeeeeppppppzzzzzzzzzzz.......

I have to "host" a church service on Sunday a.m., so I guess I'll be swillin' down a lot of coffee over the weekend.

Good viewing to you, folks!

-- Anonymous, November 17, 2001

It clouded over around midnight, but now the cloud has moved off and I started seeing them at around 1 AM -- there was a REALLY neat one that went over, really slow moving compared to the others, and big and bright! I rather wish that somehow I had known about this in advance in order to fly somewhere out in a desert to get the full effect.

It's pretty balmy out, but a bit damp. I came in to warm up a bit and then I'll be back out again! The view at the barn was better, but the one from the soccer field isn't too bad either.

-- Anonymous, November 17, 2001