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Moment of Truth Nears

The Kuomintang is in crisis. How it fares in December polls could trigger a profound realignment in island politics and China ties

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By David Lague/TAIPEI

Issue cover-dated November 29, 2001

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THE CRISIS FOR THE KUOMINTANG began in March 2000 when it was crushed in Taiwan's presidential election, and it has been downhill ever since for one of Asia's oldest and most influential political movements.

A party that over the past 100 years has played a crucial role in shaping post-imperial China and survived warlords, Japanese invasion, civil war with the Communists and exile from the mainland, is now under renewed assault at the ballot box. Public opinion polls suggest it is likely to lose its parliamentary majority as Taiwanese voters prepare to go to the polls on December 1 in an election that promises a fundamental realignment in the island's politics.

Unless it can forge a working parliamentary coalition with minor parties or even the ruling Democratic Progressive Party--the pro-independence DPP of President Chen Shui-bian--the KMT faces the prospect of being sidelined or even splintering in Taiwan's complex and increasingly ethnically-aligned politics. (See story on page 21)

A setback like this for the KMT, the backbone of pro-reunification sentiment in Taiwan, is likely to dismay a Beijing leadership that is deeply hostile to Chen's administration and lead to a sharp increase in cross-strait tension.

"The KMT is going to do very poorly," says confident DPP lawmaker Parris Chang. "We will replace them as the largest party in the Legislative Yuan."

Chang's forecast is predictable but the KMT also recognizes that it will probably go backward in the polls. According to senior party officials, it is aiming to hold about 90 seats in the 225-seat Legislative Yuan, well down on the 123 seats it captured in the 1998 elections.

Former Foreign Minister Jason Hu agrees the election is a turning point. "If the KMT does not maintain its status as the largest party in the legislature, it will face tremendous challenges from outside the party and internally," he says.

Rumours abound that up to 10 KMT lawmakers will defect to the ruling party after the election. No doubt some of this is wishful thinking from the DPP and other parties, but there is a clear sense that the KMT's opponents smell blood.

To some analysts, a key factor in this slide is the emergence of sharp divisions in Taiwan's politics along ethnic lines. The KMT's core support comes from the Chinese who fled the mainland in 1949 and their descendants--about 15% of the population of 23 million. The danger for the KMT is that it risks ending up representing a mainland rump on Taiwan while most native Taiwanese voters back the DPP, or other parties which advocate independence in stark contrast to the KMT's goal of eventual reunification.

Enemies with long memories of its authoritarian past are gloating at its steady decline since introducing democratic reforms in the late 1980s and there is a distinct ethnic flavour to some of these attacks.

"Fifty years ago, the KMT parachuted into Taiwan," said the pro-DPP Taipei Times in a scornful November 17 editorial. "The fact that this alien regime managed to maintain its rule for so long is more miraculous than Taiwan's oft-touted economic miracle. Its regime was a prime example of rule-by-force."

For President Chen, the poll is an opportunity to break the KMT's grip on parliament, which has proved to be a stumbling block for his administration, and begin building a platform for his bid for a second term in 2004.

The DPP is aiming to grab an extra 20 seats on top of the 65 it now holds to give it a strong hand in negotiations with coalition partners to form a majority.

Despite the patchy performance of his administration and a steep economic recession--the economy shrank by 4.21% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year--Chen's popularity has been on the rise in recent months and he is exploiting the advantages of incumbency to back the campaigns of DPP candidates.

But ties with China remain crucial and a weak KMT would mean a rockier ride for Taiwan--frosty ties would grow even icier if the party loses its parliamentary majority. It would represent another blow for President Jiang Zemin's dream of reunification and provoke fury in the Chinese capital, where Chen is despised and mistrusted. Though it may seem ironic that Beijing places its hopes on the KMT, the two share the same goal and both are a known quantity to each other.

Still, Chen is aware of the importance of the China card and has moved aggressively to promote stronger economic links with the mainland where Taiwanese investments have reached an estimated $60 billion, in part to counter attacks on his government for failing to take steps to counter the downturn. Just days before Taiwan was admitted to the World Trade Organization, on November 7, Chen lifted a 50-year ban on direct trade and investment on the mainland.

This move was mainly symbolic because business had already circumvented most restrictions, but it could be a vote winner at a time when further integration with China is seen as a measure to restore economic growth.

Chen is also reaching out for improved political ties with Beijing at a time when support in Taiwan for reunification under Beijing's formula of "one country-two systems" appears to be falling.

So far, Beijing has avoided the military manoeuvres and threats that it has employed before in vain bids to influence the outcome of Taiwan elections. "I hope that during my term, cross-strait relations can be normalized," Chen said, according to an unofficial transcript of a taped address to be broadcast to the mainland on December 1.

"I am confident that the misunderstanding of me by the other side and especially by certain leaders in the Beijing authority and their lack of understanding of Taiwan will gradually change with the passing of time."

China is sure to spurn Chen's overture but the address, where he talks of his Chinese roots and the shared values of mainland and Taiwanese Chinese, is clearly aimed at reassuring a domestic audience that he wants peace and cooperation with Beijing.

In contrast the embattled KMT leader Lien Chan is struggling to make an impact and fresh talent appears in short supply. The party that transformed Taiwan into a major economic power now finds that some of its brightest stars, like top diplomat Hu, are struggling to make an impression in district politics.

Hu is campaigning to become the mayor of Taichung, the island's third biggest city. Elections for key mayoral and county chief posts will also be held on December 1.

Party insiders hope that figures like the urbane, Oxford-educated Hu can establish solid reputations at the local level before leading the KMT back to power in Taipei. But failure at these elections could usher in a profound realignment in the island's political map, with all the implications that that brings for ties with China and long-term stability.

Perhaps the most painful symptom of the party's crisis is the split with former president and party chairman, Lee Teng-hui. The party was forced to expel Lee on September 19 when he publicly backed the new Taiwan Solidarity Union, or TSU, a grouping he helped found in a bid to break the KMT parliamentary stranglehold. The TSU has pledged to work with the DPP in the new parliament.

It is not clear what effect the TSU will have on the election. Some analysts believe it will win politically-conservative ethnic Taiwanese voters from the KMT. Others say it will also attract pro-independence voters from the DPP. Most believe it will struggle to win more than 10 seats. But it is certainly helping to shift the political focus in Taiwan.

Lee has been scathingly critical of the KMT and Lien, apparently infuriated by KMT moves to restore the party's traditional pro-unification stance, which have seen the emergence of unlikely cooperation with Beijing.

In addition to allowing senior party figures to visit Beijing, the KMT in September announced that it would open an office in the mainland capital. This is a sharp departure from the posture Lee struck as president when in 1999 he antagonized China with his call for Beijing and Taipei to deal with each other on a "state-to-state" basis. This fell little short of a call for independence and Beijing responded with threats of war and vigorous sabre-rattling.

Lee has since described the party he led for 12 years as an "alien" force prepared to join hands with the mainland communists. "It was a pleasure that they did this to me," he said of his expulsion.

Meanwhile, the KMT is bracing for what could be a more serious challenge, an attack on its bulging war chest. According to some analysts in Taipei, it is the world's richest political party with assets valued at more than $2.6 billion.

However, the DPP and other groups claim some of these assets were accumulated illegally or inappropriately during the party's long rule. Chen's cabinet met on November 19 to discuss proposed legislation to seize these assets.

Earlier, Taiwan's Ministry of Justice concluded that it was appropriate to pass a law that would require the KMT to return these assets but noted that this would apply to all political parties.

Furious KMT officials dismissed the move as a campaign trick. For now, a strong showing on December 1 is needed to put the KMT in a position to command an effective opposition coalition and keep the reunification movement alive on the island. It will be a crucial test for a party that once ruled the mainland and now finds itself on the brink of becoming a minority player in a "provincial" legislature.

With the move to open an office in Beijing, it may be that in the longer term, the party subconsciously feels its future lies in its homeland. A message on its Web site seems to hint at this. "History will prove that the KMT is the political party best able to secure China's national stability and development," it says.

-- Anonymous, November 30, 2001